592
FXUS63 KGID 200525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
  hours with a cluster of storms rolling off the high plains
  expected to impact the area overnight. Severe weather is
  unlikely.

- Seasonably cool weather expected Sunday onwards with highs in
  the 60s and 70s. (Normal high temperatures range from the mid
  70s to low 80s across the local area)

- Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
  forecast through the end of next week as west to
  southwesterly flow aloft continues across the plains through
  the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed across western
portions of the area this afternoon. These showers and
thunderstorms are expected to rapidly weaken and dissipate as
they track eastward through early evening hours with a more
robust line of showers and thunderstorms eventually developing
to our southeast later this afternoon along yesterdays cold
front. In general, the 18Z HRRR seems to have caught on to this
initial line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from Dawson
in to Furnas counties, and largely updated the pops for the next
few hours to reflect this.

Later tonight, expect a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developing across the Rockies to move into the plains, bringing
a better shot for some more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight. Given limited instability and shear, this
cluster should be weakening as it crosses the local area, but
cannot completely rule out a stronger thunderstorm across our
west initially, especially across areas west of Highway 183.
Further east, thunderstorm coverage will diminish and only light
rainfall accumulations are anticipated by Sunday morning.

After a seasonable day this afternoon, expect temperatures to be
on the cooler side of climo Sunday afternoon, which will mark
the start of a prolonged period of seasonal to seasonably cool
temperatures across the region. At the same time, the flow aloft
will fluctuate between westerly and southwesterly, which should
allow multiple upper level disturbances to cross the local area
through the period - bringing off and on chances for unsettled
weather across the central plains. It certainly will not rain or
storm across the entire area every day, but expect at least a
chance for precipitation across the local area with each passing
disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

low-level stratus (evident from satellite imagery) is in the
process of moving in from the north tonight. Cloud bases
currently hovering around 1,000-1,500ft will be expected to
gradually drop tonight with ceiling possible to fall below 500ft
between 12-18z. Cloud bases will struggle to scattered out
across the afternoon hours today. As result, it appears very
likely (70-90% chance) That ceilings will not recover out of
MVFR classifications for KGRI (Possible VFR window
{3,000-4,000ft bases} between 0-3z for KEAR). Otherwise,
ceilings will begin to deteriorate once more overnight Sunday.

Though a few off-and-on showers with isolated rumbles of
thunder will be possible through the period (mainly
tonight/Sunday morning), it is unlikely for the showers to
linger over KEAR or KGRI for longer than a few minutes to hour.
Surface winds will mainly remain out of a north-northeast
direction, blowing between 5-15kts through the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump