227
FXUS63 KGID 182009
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to widespread frost is possible tonight across North/Northwestern
  portions of the area. Another chance for frost is possible
  Sunday night.

- Widespread chance for rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday
  as a low pressure system moves through the Plains/Midwest.
  Best chances across southeast of the Tri-Cities.

- Active weather continues next week with scattered
  precipitation chances throughout the end of the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

This afternoon and tonight...

It has been a cooler day across the area, with temperatures
currently sitting in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Widespread cloud
coverage and breezy northwest winds gusting 25-35mph has further
contributed to the chillY feel to the day. Winds will steadily
decrease this evening, becoming light overnight. Lows tonight will
fall into the 30s across most of the area, with upper 20s possible
across northern/NW portions of the area.

Light winds and clearing skies will allow for at least patchy frost
to develop across northern/NW portions of the area. The extent of
frost will depend on just how much skies clear overnight (how cold
ares can get). While the entire forecast area is susceptible to some
frost impacts, N/NW portions of the area are the least susceptible
to frost impacts. Due to this and the uncertainty on cloud coverage,
have opted not to issue a Frost headline for tonight.

Saturday and Sunday...

An upper level low will reside over the four corners Saturday
morning, resulting in southwesterly flow over the forecast
area. A broad high pressure system over the northern High Plains
will slowly move east throughout the day on Saturday, with
partly (south) to mostly sunny (north) skies expected on
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be around 60, slightly below
their climatological averages. The upper level low will move
into the lee of the Rockies Saturday night, with the associated
surface low developing over TX/OK along a stationary front.
Scattered chances for precipitation return to the area Saturday
night as rain becomes widespread along the front in Kansas. The
area most likely to see rain Saturday night will be across
portions of north central Kansas.

The upper level low will begin to take on a negative tilt Sunday
morning as it re-merges with the jetstream. In response, the surface
low will move northeast throughout the day, tracking from northern
TX/southern OK to northern MO/Southern IA. Northwestern portions of
the precipitation shield move through the area on Sunday, bringing
more widespread precipitation chances to the area. While there
remains some uncertainty on the track, overall southeastern portions
of the area are most likely to see rain. There will likely be a
fairly sharp northwest-to-southeast gradient in accumulations. While
the current forecast has at least a couple of hundredths of rain
across the whole forecast area, it`s likely overdone and
northwestern portions of the area could miss out on rain entirely.
GFS and ECMWF ensembles show areas southeast of the Tri-Cities
having a 60-80% chance to see 0.1" of rain or more, whereas
northwest of the Tri-cities there is a 10% chance or less. Both
ensembles also show a 20% chance or less for 0.5" across
southeastern portions of the area. Rain will come to an end Sunday
evening as the low moves into the Midwest, with skies quickly
clearing. Light winds and clear skies will bring another chance
for frost as temperatures sink into the 30s Sunday night/Monday
morning.


Monday..

Southwesterly flow will strengthen across the area on Monday ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite a cold start to the day,
southwesterly flow will help highs climb above normal, in the mid to
upper 70s. A low chance for showers/storms returns to the area
Monday night, mainly for areas north of I-80.

Tuesday onwards...

Active weather continues through the end of the forecast period as a
series of disturbances make their way across the area. Model
guidance beings to diverge in the finer details of these
systems. This results in scattered to widespread precipitation
chances throughout the rest of the forecast period. Above normal
temperatures are expected during this time period, with highs
in the upper 60s/70s and lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Stratus ceilings
will continue to steadily raise through the afternoon, and
become SCT this evening/night. FEW-SCT mid-high level clouds are
expected tonight through the end of the TAF period. Northerly
winds sustained 15-20kts and gusting around 25kts will decrease
throughout the afternoon, becoming light after sunset. Light
northerly winds will persist overnight, switching to the
northeast during the mid morning hours on Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis