630
FXUS63 KGID 161138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another dangerously hot afternoon in spots, with the focus of
  the highest heat index values expected to be along and east of
  Highway 281.

- A small chance for thunderstorms returns to the western
  fringes of the area tonight (west of Highway 281), with
  additional small, intermittent chances (area-wide) Sunday
  night through Tuesday night. Widespread
  thunderstorms/precipitation appears unlikely.

- Continued heat index values near 100 degrees possible both
  Sunday and Monday afternoons, with more seasonal temperatures
  returning to the local area by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A warm a breezy start to the day across the local area this
morning with temperatures mostly in the mid 70s and southerly
winds of 10 to 15 mph being observed. Thunderstorm activity
overnight has remained over the sandhills, and is rapidly
weakening early this morning.

For today, expect another hot afternoon as mostly sunny skies
and well above normal temperatures continue across the local
area. While it will be hot (heat index values will top 100
degrees across nearly the entire area), the hottest
temperatures/heat index values will be along and east of Highway
281 where the current heat advisory remains in effect.

While high pressure aloft will remain in control of the local
weather pattern for the next several days, the first of several
weak disturbances coming out of the southwest could result in
some thunderstorm activity across the high plains eventually
clipping western portions of the area after midnight tonight.

Thereafter...intermittent mainly small chances for thunderstorms
will be possible across the area (mainly during the
evening/overnight hours) through at least Tuesday, before the
upper level ridge retrogrades west, and more seasonable
temperatures return by mid-week. Late in the week, the upper
level flow will become more northwesterly and eventually zonal,
likely ushering in addition storm chances as early as Thursday
evening and continuing off and on again into next weekend. At
this point, all the thunderstorm chances appear fairly small
(less than 30 percent) and the chance for any severe weather
over the course of the next 7 days appears low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Latest VWP continues to indicate ongoing LLWS across the area
and a bit stronger than previously forecast, so increased WS
and continued through 16/14Z. Thereafter...surface winds will
increase further out of the south, with gusts to near or
slightly greater than 20 KTS anticipated from the mid morning
through afternoon hours. As winds diminish this evening, clouds
will be on the increase from the west, with increasing mid-level
clouds near 12KFT indicated in model data. At the same time,
LLWS should return, and introduced this potential starting at
17/04Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

At least record-tying warm low temperatures appear possible at
the Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) BOTH Today and Sunday.

- For August 16th (Today):
The record warm minimum temperature is 74, set in 1936. The
current forecast low temperature for Hastings is also 74
degrees.

For August 17th (Sunday):
The record warm minimum temperature is 74, set in both 1947 &
1909. The current forecast low temperatures for Hastings is also
74 degrees.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi
CLIMATE...Rossi