185
FXUS63 KGID 230030
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
730 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening
  into tonight. A few could become strong to marginally severe
  after 7pm this evening.

- Cooler and drier air moves into the region this weekend and
  persists into next week.

- Additional rounds of showers/storms Saturday night into Sunday
  morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. This will
  favor southwest areas, and severe weather is not expected.

- Trending drier through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A cold front continues to dip into the area, with scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms slowly pushing in behind it.
Currently, this convection is very weak/disorganized, but
additional storms are expected to develop this evening as
frontal convergence and lift strengthen a bit. A few storms
could become become strong to marginally severe, primarily in
the 7pm to midnight timeframe, but storm coverage will remain
limited and many locations will stay mostly to completely dry
through tonight.

CAMs show a few showers and storms persisting into Saturday,
particularly in southwest parts of the area. North winds will
continue to advect drier air into the region, and high
temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees in most spots
Saturday afternoon. A welcome change from the warm and muggy
conditions we`ve seen recently!

Deep troughing over the eastern CONUS will put us into a
northwesterly flow regime, with additional shortwaves resulting
in additional chances for rain and thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday nights. The severe threat remains minimal due to the
cooler and drier airmass.

Monday is expected to be the coolest day, with high
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Monday night lows
could dip into the upper 40s for parts of Nebraska! Spotty
off/on chances for thunderstorms continue through early next
week, but global ensembles have generally been trending drier
during this period. Temperatures slowly trend warmer late next
week, and rain/tstorm chances increase again as we move back
into a more active pattern aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Despite the passage of a decent cold front (by August
standards), confidence remains high in VFR ceiling/visibility
throughout the period and in rain-free/thunderstorm-free
conditions through at least the vast majority of it. Northerly
winds will be a little breezy at times (mainly Saturday morning
to early afternoon), but even gusts should largely be under
18KT.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Especially these first 12 hours will feature quite a bit of mid-level
cloud cover, but mainly based near-to-above 10K ft. (and thus
solidly VFR). Right away this evening (through around 05Z) there
is a chance for occasional sprinkles and MAYBE a brief heavier
shower/thunderstorm. However, with the chance of thunderstorms
so low have kept out of TAFs in favor of a generic "vicinity
shower" (VCSH) group. High confidence in dry conditions beyond
these first 5 hours.

- Wind details:
In the wake of a cold front, direction will prevail northerly
(mainly somewhere between 340-020 degrees) throughout the
period. Sustained speeds will prevail near-to-below 10KT most of
the period, but especially 12-20Z (much of Saturday daytime)
will likely feature gusts commonly 13-17KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch