802
FXUS63 KGID 191138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected overnight into the morning
  daylight hours. Heaviest precipitation is expected across
  north central Kansas.

- There is a 30% to 40% chance of fog overnight (mainly across
  south central and central Nebraska).

- Showers and storms will impact portions of the area this
  morning and afternoon with additional storms possible this
  evening.

- Some of these storms today may be strong to severe with hail
  up to quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently showers are moving east southeast across portions of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. These showers are
expected to continue through the overnight hours and increase in
strength and coverage. Some storms may develop overnight and may
become strong to marginally severe. The chance of strong to severe
storms is low (20% or less). The area most likely to receive the
heaviest precipitation will be north central Kansas. Overnight low
temperatures will mostly be in the 60s with some 70s in north
central Kansas. Winds will continue to be mostly light (outside of
any potential thunderstorms) and variable overnight. There is a
chance (about 30% to 40%) of fog developing (mainly across south
central and central Nebraska) overnight due to recent moisture and
light winds.

Models are showing a complex of storms moving southward from
northern Nebraska during the morning hours after sunrise as well as
developing across portions of central Nebraska. There is some
uncertainty as to how much of the forecast area will be impacted by
these storms. Some models show storms generally along and east of
Highway 281 while others show them along and east of Highway 81.
These storms are expected to continue into/through the afternoon
hours with additional storms possibly developing across portions of
north central Kansas this evening. Some of these storms have the
potential to become strong to marginally severe with hail up to
around the size of quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being
the main threats. High temperatures today will range from the upper
70s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- No truly "notable" forecast changes worth discussing in
  detail, as we remain in a seasonably-warm and active weather
  pattern with various/intermittent rain/thunderstorm chances
  due to our region residing along the large-scale interface
  between large-scale upper high pressure/riding centered to our
  south- to-southwest...and broad troughing/low pressure
  centered to our north-to-northeast.

- In the "minor details" department, high temps have trended up
  slightly (at least a few degrees) for days such as Wednesday,
  Thursday and Monday as our tendency lately has been for highs
  to end up a bit warmer than forecasts from a few-to-several
  days out have called for.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. Aug. 25):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 345 PM:
In the wake of convection within mainly the northeast half of
our CWA Monday evening into early this morning that admittedly
"overachieved" in intensity and areal coverage (significant
wind damage/some hail damage in Ord area from intense supercell
pre- midnight...a more widespread area of damaging winds post-
midnight and even flooding rains in limited areas), fortunately
the bulk of today (and especially this afternoon) has been
"quiet/dry...as we reside "in between upper level
disturbances/shortwave troughs (the next one approaching from WY
per water vapor satellite/short term model data/analysis). At
the surface, winds have trended to a mainly light (under 10 MPH)
and variable direction regime.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
While MOST areas will remain dry/thunderstorm-free through at
least 9-10 PM (except for some spotty sprinkles/light showers
here or there), anytime after that is "fair game" for the
development of more widespread (at least scattered)
showers/thunderstorms as the aforementioned upper wave arrives
from the northwest and sparks at least (mainly) slighly-elevated
storms. Convective instability (CAPE) does not appear as high as
last night, but deep-layer shear will remain seasonably-strong
(at least 40-50KT), so at least a few strong to severe storms
appear possible. Admittedly, higher-res models runs (such as
from HRRR) from 24 hours ago did not verify well for last night,
but again leaning on the latest consensus of HRRR/NAMNest, the
first round of overnight convection should mainly focus into the
southern half of our CWA, as convection rolls in from the west
off the High Plains, while other storms developing along the
low-level frontal zone/along the exit region of the low level
jet (LLJ) MIGHT flirt with our eastern KS zones
(Jewell/Mitchell), but SHOULD mainly affect areas near the KS/NE
border slightly east of our CWA. Then, very late in the night
(mainly 4-7 AM), high-res models are hinting at a secondary area
of strong/severe storms developing into our northern CWA (north
of I-80) out of northern NE.

Low temps tonight mainly 60s, as breezes remain fairly light
but mainly trend more northerly.


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (pre-midnight):
Honestly, our potentially biggest (and obviously first) concern
could be right away in the morning mainly 7-10 AM, as the
aforementioned potential cluster of strong/severe storms in our
northern CWA rides into our eastern counties (somewhat similar
to this morning, albeit later in the morning). Whether or not
this unfolds, from mid-morning onward through late afternoon
MOST of our CWA should remain dry as the upper wave passes by
(similar to today). That being said, very intentionally left at
least slight chances (20%) for spotty convection going for the
majority of the CWA through the entire day and into the evening,
in case any convection redevelops on the backside of departing
activity, and/or spotty new (and potentially supercellular)
development occurs during peak heating. Fortunately, high-res
models show any late afternoon-evening severe storm potential
being VERY isolated in the wake of departing upper forcing, but
cannot argue with SPC maintaining a broad Marginal Risk...just
in case.

Otherwise during the day Wednesday, high temps were nudged up
slightly, but this still looks like the overall-coolest day of
the next week most areas...ranging upper 70s-low 80s north...to
mid-upper 80s in KS and Furnas County area. Breezes mainly under
10 MPH and northerly to easterly.


- WEDNESDAY LATE NIGHT (post-midnight):
Fortunately, we should (in theory) catch a break from any late-
night/early AM convection for a change, as most models are
outright-dry and our official forecast follows suit. Depending
on sky cover/clearing trends, this could be a night to watch for
fog potential. Low temps mainly low-60s (one of our coolest
nights upcoming).


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
The daytime looks mainly dry, but the late afternoon into the
overnight carries at least small rain/thunderstorm chances
arrive with the next subtle disturbance dropping in from the
north-northwest. Like Wednesday late afternoon-evening, coverage
of storms looks very sparse, but at least for now SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk for some of our northern-most
counties. High temps are aimed roughly 5 degrees warmer than
Wednesday...mid 80s most Nebraska counties...more so upper
80s-low 90s in KS and Furnas County area. Lows Thurs night not
quite as cool...mainly back up into mid 60s.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
Although details are quite murky already at this time range,
much the same continues with intermittent rain/storm chances.
Friday the overall-warmest day of the next week for most of our
CWA...mainly upper 80s Nebraska and low-mid 90s KS and Furnas
County area. Perhaps very slightly cooler Saturday.


- SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
Compared to preceding days, this time frame looks at least
slightly-less-active (especially Mon-Tues), but mainly slight
chances for showers/storms continue intermittently. Temps aimed
similarly all 3 days...highs mainly mid 80s most of our Nebraska
counties, and more so upper 80s-mid 90s near/south of the KS
border.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low visibilities are expected until around 14z. Low ceilings are
expected until around 16z to 18z. Showers and storms may impact
or come near KGRI around 16z to 18z. Winds will be mostly light
and variable. Low visibilities and ceilings may return tonight
starting between 06z and 09z but confidence is not high enough
to include at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Over the last 24 hours, most of (roughly) the northeast 1/2 of our
CWA picked up at least 0.50-1.50" of rain, with more localized
pockets of at least 2-3" (the majority of which fell in portions of
Valley/Greeley/Howard/Nance/Merrick/northern Fillmore counties.

In MOST places, this rain fell with little-to-no flooding impacts.
However, the MAIN EXCEPTION was within a very narrow (only 3-5 mile
wide) stripe, oriented northwest to southeast from southeastern
Valley County into southwestern Nance County...where at least 3-5"
fell, causing mainly minor flooding of creeks/streams and likely
several rural gravel/dirt roads. Of greatest concern is the Mira
Creek basin in southeastern Valley County, where an automated gauge
near North Loup has exceeded minor Flood Stage for the first time
since 2019 (as of 345 PM, the stage was 9.61 feet and starting
to level off...flood stage is 9.0 ft). While flooding of low
lying areas near the creek is ongoing, concerns for more
impactful flooding...including to homes along the creek on the
north side of North Loup...would increase especially if it
happens to "make a run" toward 11 feet (this is Moderate flood
stage). Fortunately, our "best guess" at this point based on
experience and the amount/orientation of rain within the basin
(please note this gauge is not one for which we receive official
forecasts from the Missouri Basin River Forecast
Center/MBRFC)is that the creek should not rise beyond 10
ft...then begin a slow fall sometime later today or this
evening. However, this will need monitored closely. The existing
Flood Warning may very well need extended through tonight at
least for the immediate Mira Creek/town of North Loup area.
Unfortunately, there is an outside chance of at least a brief
round of additional heavy rain overnight into Wednesday morning,
which could obviously slow any fall in water levels that
hopefully commences before then.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Schuldt
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch