118
FXUS63 KGID 192056
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
356 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm up is expected Sunday with highs returning to the
  mid-70s to low 80s.

- A storm system will move through the region early next week, bringing
  a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may
  become strong to marginally severe.

- Dry and cooler weather is expected around mid-week, with highs
  in the 60s.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A few showers brought a few hundredths of rain to a few lucky
locations this morning. Unfortunately, we are expecting to be dry
for the rest of the afternoon and into this weekend. The nice, fall-
like weather continues this afternoon as temperatures climb into the
70s. Lows will fall into the low to mid-50s.

Heading into Sunday, a closed upper low will be centered over
northeastern Arizona by daybreak, crossing over the Four Corners
region in the evening. This system has the potential to bring rain
to the Central Plains early next week. There are still some
questions of whether models will continue to slow down/push back the
arrival time of the system. For now, we are expecting a warm up,
with southwest flow over the area on Sunday and highs reaching the
mid-70s to low 80s.

Precipitation chances (20-30%) begin for our western counties as
early as late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Chances increase
(20-50%) heading into the morning as the system lifts into northwest
Kansas. The low is currently forecasted to lift into south central
Nebraska/north central Kansas late Monday afternoon. With the low
centered over the area, a boundary moving through and some
instability, there is concern a few thunderstorms may become strong
to marginally severe in north central Kansas Monday
afternoon/evening. Precipitation is currently forecasted to end west
to east Tuesday morning as the low moves across the Omaha metro.

Tuesday brings a return to the 70s for highs. A cold front dropping
in from the north Tuesday will usher in cooler temperatures on
Wednesday. Expected highs are currently in the 60s to low 70s.

Heading into the second half of the forecast period, we come into
some model disagreement. A ridge develops over the west, with
northwest flow setting up over the Central Plains. The GFS brings
twin upper-level shortwaves into central Nebraska Wednesday evening
and Thursday morning. The ECMWF is slower in its progression of one
shortwave trough moving through Thursday afternoon. There does not
appear to be any moisture with this, so the forecast was kept dry.
Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s. Expect a gradual
warming trend through   the end of the forecast period as the ridge
shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at both
terminals. Southwest winds will turn southerly this evening.
Winds will gradually increase to around 10-15kts heading into
mid-morning, with stronger winds expected just outside of the
TAF period. A few mid to upper level clouds are expected through
the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser