000
FXUS63 KGID 251748
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1148 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning today for areas generally along and north of
  Highway 6. Northwesterly winds gust 50-60 MPH at times through
  the afternoon.

- Light snow is possible for parts of the area Friday through
  Sunday. Significant snow accumulation appears unlikely, but
  some areas could see the first accumulating snow of the season
  (40-50% chance).

- Trending cooler the rest of the week and through the weekend.
  Subfreezing high temperatures and single-digit low
  temperatures are likely by Sunday/Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies ahead of the approaching cold
front has resulted in localized dense fog early this morning.
This fog is very shallow, and will clear from west to east before
sunrise as the front pushes into the area.

Gusts over 45 MPH have already been observed in portions of the
Sandhills, and will overspread the local area by mid-morning.
The start-time for the High Wind Warning was bumped back to 8am
(rather than 6am from the High Wind Watch). The strongest gusts are
not expected until the afternoon hours, as deeper mixing taps
into the stronger winds aloft. The core of strongest winds is
still expected to be over north-central Nebraska, but
occasional gusts in the 50-60 MPH range are possible as far
south as Highway 6.

Any snow associated with this system should remain to our
north...but could creep into northern parts of Nebraska this
afternoon and early evening. Winds gradually taper off through
the evening, and overnight lows are expected to dip into the
teens and low 20s.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving are still expected to be dry and
about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. There are no major
changes for Friday through the weekend. Accumulating snow on
Friday and Saturday is more favored to occur over eastern parts
of the area, with more widespread chances arriving Sunday
(possibly lingering into Monday). Significant accumulation
still appears unlikely. In general, the 00Z global ensembles
showed similar or slightly decreased probabilities for 1"+ of
snowfall. That said, anyone with holiday travel plans should
continue to monitor the forecast closely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lots of clouds lingered across the area today, rotating around
the area of low pressure crossing southern Kansas this
afternoon. Expect a period of at least partial clearing across
the area overnight as this system tracks further east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This clearing, combined
with light winds to start the night, could allow for the
redevelopment of some patchy fog late this evening and into the
overnight hours, but should be quickly scoured and pushed east
as winds start to pick up pre-dawn. The latest few runs of the
HRRR indicate some patchy dense fog mainly east of Highway 281
overnight, but did not buy into this completely (partly due to
slight westerly component of winds) and only included some
patchy fog mention in the official forecast that should be
completely gone by daybreak.

As the aforementioned cold front works its way across the tri-
cities area around daybreak, expect winds to start to crank up
across the region, with sustained winds of 25 MPH to 40 MPH
expected by midday. 18Z HRRR continues to indicate gusts of
40-50 KTS across areas generally along and north of Highway 6
during the late morning through afternoon hours, and as a
result, would not be surprised to see several gusts over 55 MPH
by the end of the day. As a result, went ahead and issued a high
wind watch for this area from 6 AM to 6 PM. In addition to the
strong winds, expect decent cold air advection through the day,
and for temperatures tomorrow afternoon to struggle to climb
into the 40s, or about 10 to possibly 15 degrees below this
afternoons highs, which combined with the strong winds, will
make it feel quite blustery across the area.

Behind this cold front, expect a general pattern shift for
several days as progressive northwesterly flow will continue
across the center of the country through the end of the week.
This will result in a generally cool weather pattern, with
temperatures remaining well below normal for an extended period
of time. Could also see multiple, quick passing, upper level
disturbances that bring small chances of snow to the region as
early as Friday afternoon, with the better signals coming late
in the weekend. The current forecast suggests the potential for
some light accumulations through Sunday, with a better chance
for a potentially more significant system over the middle of
next week as an upper level low lifts out of the southwest and
into the plains. Plenty of model divergence over this period,
but in general, expect colder temps and small chances for light
snow Friday afternoon through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period
with winds being the main concern over the next 12 hours. Expect
very gusty northwest winds to continue across the local area
through the afternoon hours...with gusts 45KTS+ continuing
through around 26/00Z. Thereafter...winds will slowly begin to
subside...but remain gusts for most of the night...before
relaxing and becoming steady around 10 KTS by around 26/10Z. Sky
cover through the period will be minimal, with just some passing
mid/high level clouds through the afternoon hours, with clear
skies anticipated for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR