994
FXUS63 KGID 081955
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
255 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through Sunday with highs
  in the 70s and 80s, warmest on Sunday (highs in the mid-upper
  80s).

- Rain chances (15-20%) return early Saturday morning as a warm front
  moves through the area.

- Off and on chances (15-25%)for rain Sunday night-early next
  week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Today/Tonight...

Cloud coverage from a passing weak disturbance has gradually pushed
its way into the area today. The cloudy skies have helped to keep
temperatures cooler, in the low-mid 60s where cloud coverage is the
most robust (west/southwest), with temperatures in the upper 60s-low
70s in areas that have seen more sunshine (east). Winds are breezy
at times, gusting 20-25mph. A few weak showers can be seen on radar,
though dry air near the surface should prevent most if not all of
this rain from reaching the ground. Mostly cloudy skies will help
keep temperatures tonight largely in the 50s, but lows could dip
into the 40s where clouds clear the quickest.

Thursday and Friday...

Upper level ridging strengthens/builds over the Plains on Thursday.
Short range/high res model guidance supports the development of
stratus/fog over the NE panhandle-southwest NE early Thursday
morning. This stratus deck will gradually move into western portions
of the area around sunrise on Thursday. The stratus looks to be slow
to erode, lingering into the early afternoon hours, bringing
uncertainty on Thursday`s high temperatures. In areas that
remain east of stratus/clear quickly, highs will climb into the
upper 70s- low 80s. Where stratus lingers longer, highs will be
confined to the low-mid 70s. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon hours, gusting 20-25mph across the area.

A shortwave trough and associated surface low move into the Great
Lakes and will push a cold front through the area Friday morning. No
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage as the strongest
forcing for showers is east of the forecast area, closest to the
surface low. Despite the frontal passage, another seasonably warm
day is expected across the area with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Ridging begins to move into the Midwest on Saturday as southwesterly
flow develops over the area. At the surface, a warm front will push
north across the area Saturday morning. A few showers are possible
along the front as it lifts north, though uncertainty remains on how
widespread rain will be along the front, keeping PoPs below 20%.
Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are expected, warmest across
southwestern portions of the area and coolest near the warm front
along/north of Highway 92. Breezy-gusty winds are expected during
the day, strongest during the afternoon, with winds gusting 20-
30mph. There could be some elevated fire weather concerns during the
afternoon given the stronger winds and overall drying fuels (though
fuels still fairly green).

An upper level trough over the Rockies is expected to move into the
Plains Sunday afternoon. Ahead of this approaching trough, southerly
flow strengthens across the area resulting in a warm and windy day
across the area. Highs will soar into the mid-upper 80s, around 15-
20 degrees above their climatological norms (normal highs upper 60s
to low 70s). A cold front from the aforementioned trough will
push into western portions of the area Sunday afternoon bringing
some uncertainty on highs. Breezy-Gusty southerly winds
continue on Sunday, with winds gusting 20-30mph ahead of the
cold front. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front and
remain breezy (20-25mph gusts). Elevated fire weather concerns
are also possible on Sunday given the stronger winds, well above
normal temperatures and drying fuels.

Sunday Night Onwards...

Precipitation chances return Sunday night as showers/storms develop
along the cold front moving through the area. This does not look to
be a widespread rain event as ensembles support showers/storms being
fairly isolated-scattered along the front which is reflected well in
the NBM`s 15-25% PoPs Sunday night. Cooler weather is expected
Monday in the wake of the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s-
low 70s. Any lingering rain will come to an end Monday morning, with
partly cloudy skies during the afternoon.

Model guidance shows decreasing alignment as we move into next week.
Broadly southwesterly flow redevelops over the area but models have
a fair amount of spread in the timing, strength and position of
shortwave troughs moving through this flow loft. Still, above normal
temperatures return by the middle of next week, with scattered
chances for precipitation associated with the passing shortwave
troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SCT-BKN clouds around 060-080 will move into the TAF sites
during the afternoon-evening hours. These clouds will persist
into the early morning hours on Thursday before gradually
clearing first at KEAR than KGRI. Low stratus may also move into
the TAF sites after sunrise on Thursday. Low stratus would move
in from the west, and linger through the end of the TAF period
(13-18z). MVFR ceilings are possible in this stratus, but
confidence is too low to include MVFR conditions at this time.
Have indicated this potential with a SCT020 group.

South-southeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts are expected through
the late afternoon hours, with winds around 10kts overnight.
LLWS is possible overnight at KEAR, weakening around sunrise as
the LLJ weakens/veers. Winds increase after sunrise on
Thursday, with sustained winds of 10-15kts at KGRI/KEAR and
gusting to 20kts at KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis