149
FXUS63 KGID 221135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
535 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant with slightly above-normal temperatures through the
  weekend. Possibly some patchy fog Saturday morning.

- Cold front brings cooler air into the area for next week.

- Only a low chance (20%) for some accumulating snow
  Wednesday/Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Higher confidence in a
  push of even colder air mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Mostly clear skies and light/variable winds under surface high
pressure has allowed locations to drop into the 20s and even
upper teens across the area as of 3am. Winds will gradually turn
to the south as high pressure moves eastward. Scattered high
clouds may inhibit our warmup a bit today, but temperatures
should still reach the 50s for most areas.

Winds go light/variable again tonight and any near-term models
(HRRR and several HREF members) show some fog developing over
at least portions of the area into Saturday morning. Western
areas appear to be most favored at this time, so patchy fog was
introduced into the forecast in these areas.

Saturday will be a touch warmer than today with slightly
stronger south-southeasterly winds. Forecast highs in the mid
to upper 50s are 5-10 degrees above our climatological normals.

Sunday should be another pleasant day for many areas, but an
advancing cold front cold front will usher in breezier north
winds. Depending on the timing (which is still a little
uncertain), northern areas could end up with highs only in the
40s while portions of KS reach the 60s.

Some flurries/sprinkles cannot be ruled out late Sunday night
through Monday as the upper shortwave associated with the cold
front passes through the central Plains. That said, the
potential for any accumulation is near zero. High temperatures
on Monday/Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 30s to 40s
with overnight lows in the teens and 20s.

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the next chance
for precipitation (primarily snow) arrives Wednesday into
Thursday as a shortwave moves across the region. That being
said, the potential for any meaningful accumulation has
continued to trend downward on the 00Z suite of deterministic
and ensemble modeling. The 01Z NBM only shows a 10-20% chance
for even 1" of snowfall through Thanksgiving Day. This period
still bears monitoring, but it appears to be trending favorably
for holiday travel plans.

Regardless of the snow, this system WILL push additional cold
air into the area for the middle to end of next week. HIGH
temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing through the
Thanksgiving weekend. Low temperatures and wind chills could
dip into the single digits.

Medium to long-range guidance then favors a slight warming trend
into the first weekend of December with no strong signals for
accumulating snow at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening.
There is only a low chance (10-20%) for fog early Saturday
morning.

South winds to around 10kts are expected today with FEW-SCT high
clouds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels