831
FXUS63 KGID 042346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although even at this "zero hour" there are still questions
  regarding their areal coverage (more scattered/hit-and-miss or
  more widespread?), nearly our entire forecast area (CWA) has a
  fairly high (at least 60-80%) chance of seeing
  showers/thunderstorms at some point through tonight.

- Sticking with late this afternoon-overnight: A few storms
  could produce marginally-severe winds (50-60 MPH), but the
  overall-bigger issue will likely be localized pockets of heavy
  rain/possible flooding (some places could see 1-3" in a fairly
  short time).

- Beyond tonight: Although it now appears that the vast majority
  of our CWA will likely stay dry/storm free Saturday daytime
  through Sunday daytime, nearly every day/night forecast period
  through Friday carries at least slight chances for
  showers/storms in at least parts of our CWA. Many of these
  chances are admittedly uncertain/"murky" at this time...and
  thus why PoPs are NO HIGHER than 40-50% for any given
  day/night.

- Temperature-wise: It doesn`t get much more "normal summer"
  than this. Highs on most days mid 80s-low 90s and lows on most
  nights mid-upper 60s. Obviously no extreme heat concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:

- It`s this forecaster first shift after a few days off, and
  first impressions are best described as: A fairly typical
  summer pattern with very-near-normal temperatures and
  various/intermittent (but also lower-confidence) rain and
  thunderstorm chances driven by mainly subtle/low amplitude
  disturbances (the one passing through this afternoon-tonight
  is probably one of the stronger ones of the next several days).


- There will likely be at least occasional bouts of
  strong/severe storms and localized heavy rain/flooding, but a
  pronounced lack of stronger deep-layer wind shear (especially
  through Tuesday) should keep things from getting too "out of
  hand". SPC has technically assigned Marginal Risk (level 1 of
  5) to parts of our CWA on both the Day 2 (Sat-Sat night) and
  Day 3 (Sun-Sun night) outlooks, but it`s also looking like
  most of our CWA will probably stay storm-free through that
  time. I would fully expect additional days next week to also
  carry Marginal-to-Slight Risk severe categories as they get
  closer in time, but nothing at this point "screams"
  widespread/significant severe.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Overall no big surprises so far today. After starting the
morning off dry and mostly sunny CWA-wide, at least mostly
cloudy skies have steadily taken over all areas. As for
showers/thunderstorms, by far the bulk of activity so far this
afternoon has affected our western-most counties
(Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), where radar estimation/mesonets confirm
that various places have already picked up 1-2" rain over the
last few hours. Meanwhile, the majority of the remainder of our
CWA has remained dry thus far, although isolated to scattered
activity is starting to get underway near the Hwy 281 corridor
in our central CWA.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery/short term model data confirm that a broad
shortwave trough is in the process of traversing the
Central/Northern Plains, with the upper ridge that dominated
yesterday`s weather here now centered farther east over the
MO/IL border area. At the surface, steady southerly breezes are
in place CWA-wide, as we remain east of low pressure centered
along a lee trough to our west, with sustained speeds commonly
10-20 MPH/gusts 20-28 MPH.

High temperatures today are on track to range from near-80 far
west (where clouds/rain moved in first), to more widespread
mid-upper 80s in our central/east.


-- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Obviously the paramount weather issue is exactly how
shower/thunderstorm activity evolves, and how much (or how
little?) of our CWA ultimately deals with disruptions to
Independence Day activities.

Unfortunately, even at this "zero hour", models continue to
struggle with the "exacts", as although we currently have fairly
widespread convection streaming cross our far western counties,
the last few/several runs of higher-res models (such as HRRR)
are less bullish than they were even 8 hours ago on marching
this axis of rain/storms across nearly our entire CWA from
west-to-east late this afternoon-evening...instead starting to
imply that roughly the eastern 2/3rds of our CWA will instead
see only more scattered/hit-and-miss activity. That being said,
it would be far from the first time that this forecaster saw
older/previous model runs end up more "correct", so our official
forecast is overall-geared toward the more aggressive side of
things with at least 60-80% shower/thunderstorm chances (PoPs)
nearly everywhere AT SOME POINT this evening-overnight.

Fortunately, the odds of seeing truly severe storms is looking
fairly low, as despite decent instability/mixed-layer CAPE
around 1500 J/kg, deep-layer shear is rather anemic (mainly
20-25KT at most), and mid-level lapse rates are quite poor. That
being said, cannot completely rule out a few storms trying to
put out near to marginally-severe winds in the 50-60 MPH range.

The overall-greater concern (besides the obvious lightning
threat for those with outdoor activities) will likely be
localized heavy rain, with SOME (certainly far from all) of our
CWA picking up as much as 1-3" of rain in a fairly short time (a
few hours)...as has already occurred in western Dawson County.
Fortunately, HREF ensemble probability matched mean (PMM), along
with "raw" higher-res guidance, strongly suggests that the
threat for MORE than 3" anywhere should be very unlikely except
on an extremely localized basis.

Although exactly what happens with rain/thunderstorm coverage
between now and then is somewhat in question, confidence is high
that showers/storms will gradually vacate our CWA from west-
northwest to east-southeast between midnight-sunrise as
forcing/lift clears off to our east on the backside of the
departing upper wave.

In other departments tonight, not accounting for convective
outflow influences, breezes will generally average around 10 MPH
as direction shifts from southerly to more west-southwesterly
with time. Low temps are aimed from mid-upper 60s west (where
skies will likely clear a bit more by sunrise), to low 70s east.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM):
Compared to our previous forecast, rain/thunderstorm chances
(albeit small to begin with) were removed from the vast majority
of our CWA as we look to remain weakly capped with minimal
forcing in the wake of the departing disturbance. That being
said, did linger small chances for departing showers/weak storms
for the first few hours after sunrise in our far eastern
counties, and also went with a slight chance of thunderstorms in
our far southern KS counties for after 4 PM as there are hints
that some strong to possibly even severe storms MIGHT try firing
up along a weak/stalling front (SPC has introduced a Marginal
Risk of severe to mainly this part of our CWA).

Speaking of that weak front, it will cause most of our CWA
(especially Nebraska counties) to experience fairly tame
northerly winds most of the day (5-15 MPH). While the day could
start with some low clouds (this is also somewhat uncertain), by
afternoon there should be plentiful sunshine, helping boost
afternoon high temps into the 87-92 range most areas.


- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT (after 7 PM):
While the forecast remains officially dry for most of our CWA,
the evening features continued mainly slight chance PoPs in
mainly our KS zones while the late-night hours feature slight
chances mainly in our far western zones in case some activity is
able to brush into that area out of western NE.

Otherwise, it should be a fairly quiet night for most of our
CWA with light, generally easterly breezes and low temps mainly
bottoming out 63-69.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
While most places should have a dry daytime, some models (not
all) show an uptick in thunderstorm chances mainly for the
evening-overnight hours as a weak upper wave moves overhead in
west-northwesterly flow aloft. Confidence is admittedly low for
something only a few days out. High temps mainly mid-upper 80s,
with a few 90s possible mainly far south-southwest.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
More of the same, with continued lower confidence
rain/thunderstorm chances as our flow aloft gradually
transitions from west-northwesterly to more "true" northwesterly
as the pattern amplifies a bit along the northeast periphery of
a large-scale upper ridge building over the Desert Southwest.
High temps remain similar...mainly mid 80s to lower 90s.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
Mainly northwesterly flow aloft persists, with occasional
passing waves promoting additional rain/storm chances. Although
the amount/coverage of storms is very uncertain at this time
range, deep-layer shear does pick up a bit, making severe storms
at least a more realistic possibility compared to shorter-term
periods. At least for now, these two days are aimed SLIGHTLY
warmer than previous days, with highs mainly upper 80s-mid 90s
(highest in KS zones).


- FRIDAY:
It`s the same old story with the uncertain but continued
rain/thunderstorm chances under west-northwest flow aloft.
However, there are at least subtle signs of a SLIGHT cool-down,
with highs very preliminarily only low-mid 80s most of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period lies in roughly the first 6-9
hours, as a complex of at times scattered-widespread showers
and thunderstorms continues to gradually shift east. Have TEMPO
and PROB30 groups through 09Z at both sites...with more
uncertainty closer to/after midnight. Some models/guidance
continue to show the potential for lowering ceilings/MVFR
conditions as we into the early morning/pre-dawn hours...have
MVFR mention going through mid-morning, with ceilings scattering
hour/returning to VFR. Winds remain southerly things evening,
then gradually turning more westerly with time tonight, then to
the NNW during the day behind a passing front. Not out of the
question there could be some gusts close to 20 MPH during the
afternoon hours...otherwise speeds look to generally range from
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP