400
FXUS63 KGID 171114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be on the gradual rise through Monday (highs
  in the low triple digits possible Sunday/Monday afternoon).

- Temperatures for much of the rest of the week should hang
  around the mid 80s to mid 90s.

- Dry conditions, outside of a few isolated showers along a
  nearby cold front Saturday afternoon, will be expected to last
  through Tuesday.

- A few chances of precipitation (15-45%) currently lie across
  the Wednesday night through Friday period, though confidence
  remains limited for any event still 6 to 7 days out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026


The main story within the short-term period will be the steadily
increasing heat over the weekend. A ridge, parked across much of the
central U.S. in the mid to upper levels, has been responsible for
keeping around generally drier and warmer temperatures. This feature
has no intentions of breaking down or shifting away anytime soon (at
least through the weekend). As result, temperatures are likely to
continue to increase through Monday with no widespread precipitation
chances in the forecast.

Highs today will likely range the upper 80s to mid 90s (a degree or
two warmer from Thursday) as mostly clear skies continue to let the
sun shine through. In addition, a weak surface pressure gradient
will keep winds light (5-15MPH) and generally out of the south for
the day. Similar conditions should return for Saturday, though highs
will mainly range the mid 90s with the light surface winds out of
the southeast. For comparison, normal highs for time of year (mid
July) usually range around the upper 80s for south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas.

In terms of precipitation, chances remain out of the forecast for
now. A cold front, however, should near north central and eastern
nebraska Saturday afternoon. It is possible for a few localized
showers or weak thunderstorms to pop up along this front. The
coverage of any such precipitation, however, should cover less than
20% of the coverage area (south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas).

Even warmer conditions will be expected to come Sunday as highs near
the 100s. The latest HREF guidance suggests that 20-30% of the area
could see highs reach 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Despite the
warming temperatures, heat index values are only forecast as high as
96-104 degrees given the presence of mid 60s dewpoints. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies with the continuation of steady southerly winds
(10-15MPH) will remain put among broad high surface pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The primary change in this forecast was the addition of isolated
sprinkles/showers to the forecast for this afternoon. This is
most favorable over the eastern half of the area. There is
enough instability that a few rumbles of thunder are not out of
the question as well. Shear is very weak, so updrafts will be
short-lived and non-severe. All in all, impacts will be
minimal, and the overwhelming majority of the area is expected
to remain dry.

Otherwise, ridging will continue to favor mostly dry and
increasingly warm conditions through the weekend. Temperatures
on both Sunday and Monday could approach 100 degrees with heat
index values near 105 degrees in many areas. Of the two days,
Monday looks to be the "peak," before a pattern shift for the
middle to end of next week.

Models favor a more active pattern for the middle to end of
next week. But, to be fair, it isn`t particularly hard to be
more active than this week has been. The EPS favors slightly
above-normal precip totals in the 5-10 day range, but the other
global ensembles are not quite as optimistic.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to retain across the period (>80%
confidence). Though a few clouds as low as 4-6kft will develop
across the afternoon to evening hours, cloud bases will mainly
stay scattered or few. Winds will be light to steady (5-10kts)
with occasional afternoon gusts as high as 15kts possible. Wind
directions will retain a southerly orientation through the day
and night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump