796
FXUS63 KGID 031822
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service North Platte NE
122 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though a few rogue rumbles of (non-severe) thunder and/or a
  dusting of snow cannot be ruled out within our forecast area
  (CWA) during the next 48 hours, for the first time in at least
  a few weeks our 7-day Hazardous Weather Outlook product
  (HWOGID) is VOID OF ANY CONTENT (including fire weather).

- By far the main forecast highlight continue to rain chances
  (and minimal snow chances at the tail end) today through
  Friday night. However, unfortunately for those wanting a
  bigger soaking rain, cumulative amounts over the next few
  days have really taken a nosedive with most of our CWA now
  expected to pick up no more than 0.10-0.40" (perhaps localized
  higher in our far west).

- Our forecast is officially dry Saturday daytime-Wednesday,
  although there are some subtle hints that spotty rain chances
  may eventually be needed as early as Tues night-Wed.

- Temperature-wise: certainly nothing truly unusual about the
  next 7 days as early-April goes (not overly cold or warm),
  with highs on most days somewhere 40s-60s and lows most nights
  20s-30s (widespread 20s-low 30s most favored this weekend).

- Going hand in hand with previous: just a friendly reminder
  that despite some early green-up due to a mild March, we won`t
  consider the growing season to have begun until at least mid-
  late April (so no Frost Advisories/Freeze Warnings until
  then).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE TRENDS, CHANGES,
 UNCERTAINTIES:

- As touched on above (and unfortunately for most of us out
  there wanting some decent early-spring rain), cumulative
  amounts over these next 48 hours have really dropped with this
  latest "forecast package". The majority of our CWA now appears
  that it will be lucky to pick up more than 0.10-0.40"
  (overall-lowest counties east of Hwy 281 and overall-highest
  west. If any location still has a chance of seeing at least
  0.50", it would probably be way out in our far west around
  Gothenburg/Cozad, but it`s become increasingly-clear that the
  MAIN axis of beneficial moisture these next 48 hours will set
  up slightly west of our CWA (from northwest KS into western
  NE).

- As was fully expected (as discussed here 24 hours ago), the
  forecast for Saturday daytime has finally gone dry CWA-wide as
  any "last gasp" mix of rain/snow should depart before sunrise.
  However, Saturday still won`t be a great weather day either,
  as it currently looks to be the overall-windiest day of the
  next week (northerly gusts 30+ MPH) and high temps only
  managing the mid-upper 40s.

- Also as mentioned above, later forecasts will have to consider
  adding at least some slight shower (maybe weak thunderstorm)
  chances into the Tues night-Wed time frame, as models are
  suggestive of some disturbances zipping through in
  northwesterly flow aloft. However, with this possibility still
  being a good 6-7 days out (and with our previous forecast
  being dry), decided to maintain a dry forecast for now
  unless/until these chances look a bit more worthy of
  inclusion.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
Once the smattering of late afternoon-early evening light
showers across mainly our south half faded with the daylight (a
few of which produced enhanced gusts to 40-50 MPH as rain
evaporated into the dry low levels), it`s been a dry and very
tranquil overnight. Although a mainly thin veil of high cirrus
clouds have pushed up over especially our southern/eastern zones
overnight, most areas were clear/mostly clear much of the
night.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery/short-term
model data confirm that we are experiencing a break brief
between disturbances, as the heart of the upper trough that
brought our spotty severe storms Tues evening is now up near
Lake Superior, while the next main upstream shortwave is
centered over the Four Corners region (with lead impulses
ejecting out toward us in the continued/persistent
southwesterly flow).

At the surface, a broad high pressure axis (around 1014 millibars)
is parked directly over us early this morning, promoting light
breezes mainly under 8 MPH (mostly from the north-to-west).

Temperature-wise, as suspected as a possibility in yesterday
morning`s discussion, we were not aiming quite cold enough on
overnight lows given the combo of mostly clear skies/light winds,
and most of our CWA will yet (or already has) dropped into the upper
20s-low 30s, but ranging from mid 20s in our far north/west to mid
30s far southeast.


- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
Most importantly: If you were expecting rain at some point today
(and especially if you live anywhere except perhaps our far
western counties), please lower your expectations now. Although
we are still holding onto some less-than-likely (meaning less
than 60 percent) chances/PoPs as far east as roughly a Kearney-
Beloit KS line this afternoon, the areal extent of these chances
(albeit reduced from previous forecast) are likely still plenty
generous, as the latest model data suggests that all except may
be our far western counties could easily get through at least 7
PM bone dry. Instead, the best rain chances in the region today
will clearly focus slightly to our west (western KS/western
NE), following the track of the more northward (versus eastward)
approaching upper wave. Should any showers manage to get into
our western zones this afternoon, a rogue weak thunderstorm
probably cannot be ruled out, but any thunder chance was deemed
to low for formal forecast inclusion.

Now that we`ve made it clear that most areas will stay dry most
of the day, we will nonetheless see a steady increase in mainly
mid-high level clouds streaming up from the south, with any
sunshine this morning giving way to no better than partly-mostly
cloudy skies this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will
quickly depart eastward, as low pressure develops off the Front
Range to our west. As a result, we`ll see modest uptick in the
pressure gradient, with breezes gradually picking up to
sustained 10-20 MPH/gusts 15-25 MPH (lightest in our
northeast/strongest in our southwest), as direction transitions
from northeasterly, to easterly, southeasterly with time.

Temperature-wise: Although am a little concerned increasing
clouds could cause some spots to fall slightly short, made
little change with most of the CWA aimed between 53-59.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (after 7 PM):
While rain chances will be somewhat higher than those today,
these PoPs have also been adjusted down from previous forecast,
with only some counties west of Highway 281 assigned
"likely"/60+% values, and less-than-likely Pops in our east...as
much of our CWA continues to reside too far east to see much
(except perhaps some drizzle toward sunrise as the low-levels
more fully saturate). Sustained breezes overnight will average
5-15 MPH out of the southeast, which in tandem with plentiful
cloud cover will keep low temperatures a good 8-13 degrees
warmer than this morning (most places aimed low 40s...keeping
any precip that does manage to fall in our CWA as rain...and any
light/slushy snow to our west over western NE).


- FRIDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
Compared to today-tonight, at least for now we have maintained
some much higher rain chances (60-80%), but definitely want to
emphasize that it will not be an ALL-DAY steady rain (although
low clouds/some drizzle could be fairly common), and amounts
won`t be overly-abundant. Although the various models differ as
usual on the exact specifics, the general theme is that our CWA
is somewhat "split around" by overall-higher precip chances
focused both to our north/west and also south/east.

At the surface, while much of the day will maintain
southeasterly breezes, changes arrive by late afternoon as a
seasonably-decent cold front slices in from the northwest (much
of our CWA will see northerly gusts at least 20-30 MPH by
sunset). Temperature-wise, made little change to afternoon highs
with nearly our areas upper 40s-low 50s, but any areas of
steadier rain could easily hold down a bit more.


- FRIDAY LATER EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
This will be our "last gasp" of precip chances for several days,
driven by a significant pattern change in the mid-upper levels
as our multiple-day round of southwesterly flow starts
transitioning to north-northwesterly flow (in response to a
large scale trough tracking eastward across Canada toward the
Great Lakes and allowing ridging to build in over the western
Unites States).

Getting back to our local weather, between sunset Friday and
sunrise saturday a final band of precipitation will track across
our CWA from northwest-southeast (albeit perhaps not in a
seamless/unbroken form). Depending on the exact timing of this
precip band (and how fast colder air arrives from the
northwest), chilly rain could turn to a bit of west/slushy snow
along it`s departing edge. A lot would have to change for this
snow to be any kind of "big deal", but our latest forecast does
show the potential for a slushy dusting mainly northwest of a
Beaver City-Kearney-Fullerton line.

Aside from any departing precip, it will be a blustery/chilly
overnight, with sustained north winds 15-25 MPH/gusts 30+ MPH,
as overnight low temps eventually bottom out from mid 20s
northwest to low-mid 30s southeast.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
As mentioned above, our Saturday daytime forecast finally dried
out (as expected), paving the way for a dry but seasonably-cool
weekend under benign northwesterly flow aloft. Although at least
some will return Saturday, it will be quite blustery with
northerly gusts 30+ MPH and high temps only managing mid-upper
40s. Sunday will feature improvement with more widespread
sunshine and lighter westerly winds, allowing high temps to
rebound to right around 60. Both Sat and Sun nights will be
seasonably-cold, with overnight lows currently aimed mid-20s
most places Sat night and mid 20s-low 30s Sun night.


- MONDAY:
It remains all but "guaranteed" dry, but temperatures will take
a small step backward as strong surface high pressure nosing
down into the Midwest from Canada drops a backdoor cold front
through us, with highs currently aimed near-50 in our far
northeast to near-60 far south-southwest.


- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Confidence is high that most areas will remain dry most of this
time (and our official forecast is still dry). However, although
the latest ECMWF/GFS models clearly (and expectedly) differ on
the exact timing and strength at this time range, they both show
the potential for at least low-amplitude disturbances to start
diving down over our region in the northwesterly flow aloft,
which could bring one or more rounds of at least spotty
showers/weak thunderstorms. For now, the GFS is favoring an
earlier arrival of these potential chances (Tues-Tues night),
while the ECMWF suggests these chances would focus a full 24
hours later into Wed-Wed night. In part given this uncertainty,
have maintained a dry forecast CWA-wide for at least one more
cycle.

Temperature-wise, the aforementioned disturbances could perhaps
modulate/hinder an expected warm-up to some degree, but as of
now we`re still calling for highs to bounce back into at least
low-mid 60s Tues and low 70s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Moisture moving northward into the area will gradually cause
ceilings to lower tonight. By late tonight and espeically by
sunrise Thursday, MVFR and local IFR conditions can be
expected. Areas of rain is also expected, especially for areas
along and west of EAR. Winds will be east to southeast at 10-15
kts through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Taylor