552
FXUS63 KGID 220002
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A subtle warm up to the 50s through Saturday.

-A 10-15 degree drop Monday. Highs through midweek in the mid
 30s to lower 40s.

-High uncertainty in regards to the next best precipitation
 chance (likely in the form of snow) from a passing system mid-
 week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Tonight through Saturday...

Temperatures this afternoon are sliding into the mid to upper 40s
(northeast areas) and up to the lower 50s (southwest areas). This
marks the start to a 3-day warm up as highs are expected to
exclusively range in the 50s by the end of the week. The lows
tonight will once again hover over the lower to upper 20s (Likely
the coldest night until Sunday). A few areas in our most northern
extent could event dip into the upper teens (20% chance).

The winds compared to yesterday seem hardly noticeable with weak and
widespread high pressure that has spread itself out from North
Dakota all the way down to Texas. Northwest winds will finish out
the day with a gradual transition back to light south winds by early
Friday. The southerly winds will implement a weak warm air advection
pattern that will lead the way for the gentle warmup.

The onset of a mid to upper level ridge will suppress any system
development chance through the weekend, keeping the PoPs as low as
they can be. Be sure to enjoy these last quiet and warm (relatively
speaking) days before a substantial cool down next week.

Sunday through Tuesday...

A low pressure center will enter the area Sunday with a cold front
that will flip winds back north again, bringing an end to the
weekend warmup. The upper level pattern will also be in transition
as the ridge flattens out and a shortwave trough moves in nearby.

The big change that will be felt starting Monday revolves around an
at least 10-15 degree drop in temperatures from the upper 40s to mid
50s Sunday, down to the mid 30s to lower 40s on Monday. Though the
forecast remains dry for the first half of the week, a few nearby
flurries can`t be completely ruled out yet, though general model
guidance has substantially trended chances down (5-10%). A slightly
better, but not so impressive and overall more organized system is
feasible to develop sometime near midweek. The big uncertainty
revolves around location and timing.

Wednesday and Beyond...

It goes without saying that the forecast past Tuesday remains highly
uncertain at this point in time. General model disagreement on the
intensity and the positioning for the next main trough/wave passage
limits confidence for any precipitation chance (10-25%), likely in
the form of snow. Across the Greater Nebraska/Kansas region, it is
possible that there could be some winners that receive some low end
amount of snow, but an even greater portion could likely strikeout,
either missing it altogether or only receiving a few flurries.

The main concerns regard the placement of a surface low pressure
center on Wednesday and Thursday. Recent long range forecast models
suggest that this system will be in its early development stage in
and around Oklahoma and the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Though
there is a potential for its impacts to bleed up into South Central
Nebraska, expected impacts remain limited. There is no concern yet
to cancel any Holiday plans as uncertainty remains very high.
Thanksgiving Day is favored to be just a touch colder than average
this year with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s with overnight
temperatures potentially down into the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This will be a very "quiet" period, with extremely high
confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility (only gradually-increasing
high clouds mainly at/above 20K ft. during the day Friday).

Even winds will be seasonably-light...in fact downright
light/variable in direction overnight into Friday morning, then
only picking up modestly late-morning into the afternoon from
the south (sustained around 10KT/gusts mostly under 15KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch