507
FXUS63 KGID 240006
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
706 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible (15-40%) after
  midnight, continuing into the day on Sunday.

- Seasonably cool weather expected through the forecast period,
  with highs ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s.

- Scattered chances for precipitation Sunday night-Monday and
  Wednesday onwards, most likely across southwestern portions of
  the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

This Afternoon and Tonight...

Weather this afternoon is very pleasant across the area, especially
compared to earlier this week. Temperatures are sitting in the 70s
to low 80s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s! Aloft the area is
under northwesterly flow as troughing deepens over the Great Lakes.

A shortwave trough will move through the broad troughing over the
eastern U.S. during the overnight hours, bringing a chance for
scattered-widespread rain to the area. Showers/storms are expected
to develop and/or move in from the west after midnight, tracking
southeast across the area. Southwestern portions of the area have
the overall highest chances to see multiple rounds of
showers/storms, but just about anywhere could see a storm overnight.

Sunday...

Scattered to widespread showers and storms will be ongoing Sunday
morning. Showers/storms decrease from northeast to southwest during
the day, exiting southern portions of the area during the afternoon.
Flooding impacts look to be fairly minor/localized at this time as
moisture looks to be more limited with this system. Southwestern
portions of the area have the highest chances to see any flooding
impacts due to the overall higher probabilities for multiple rounds
of showers/storms. Widespread cloud coverage from the showers/storms
will help keep temperatures cool, especially where it lingers the
with highs in the low to mid 70s.

The next disturbance moves through the Plains Sunday night. PoPs
Sunday night look to be less widespread, confined to areas mainly
southwest of the Tri-Cities.

Monday...

Showers/storms will gradually come to an end Monday morning, as
clouds gradually clear during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s are expected on Monday, coolest where cloud coverage is
slowest to clear. Temperatures Monday night sink into the low 50s
with the NBM giving northern portions a 10-15% chance to fall below
50!

Tuesday onwards...

Seasonably cool weather continues throughout the rest of the
forecast as troughing sits over the Great Lakes-eastern U.S. Highs
will generally be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, around 10-15 degrees
below normal. Passing shortwaves bring a few chances for
precipitation to the area. The finer details on these chances
will become clearer as we get closer, but at this time chances
are greatest across southwestern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the vast
majority of the period, and high confidence in dry weather
through most of the period. That being said, at least
intermittent passing showers/weak thunderstorms and MAYBE brief
flirtations with MVFR ceiling and/or visibility are possible
mainly in the 09-18Z time frame. Winds will be a very minimal
issue with sustained speeds no higher than 5-10KT throughout.
Given the light speeds, direction will be somewhat variable at
times, but will overall prevail some variety of easterly.

- Ceiling/visibility and precipitation potential details:
Extremely high confidence in VFR/dry conditions through at least
09Z, with only gradually-increasing mid-level cloud cover.
However, anytime after roughly 09Z...but more so between
12-18Z...at least intermittent/scattered weak convection is
likely to stream overhead from northwest-to-southeast. Still not
high enough confidence in duration/coverage of precip to justify
potential TEMPO/prevailing groups at this time, but will run
PROB30 for -TSRA at KEAR/-SHRA at KGRI (where there is overall-
less potential for lightning). No matter, any
showers/thunderstorms would be weak/non-severe, although any
heavier downpours could occasionally yield MVFR visibility.

Also mainly 12-18Z, while ceiling is most favored to drop no
lower than low-end VFR, there are low-probability "hints" in
some model data for brief/high-end MVFR (hinted at with
"FEW015" inclusion). Beyond 18Z, chances for passing
showers/weak storms steadily diminish, but a low-end VFR ceiling
could hang on through much of the remainder of Sunday
afternoon/early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch