721
FXUS63 KGID 300153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
853 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...Short Term Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting increasing coverage in thunderstorm activity late
  today-this evening...pushing west-east across the forecast
  area during the overnight hours. Some storms may be strong-
  severe...damaging wind and large hail are the main hazards,
  though an isolated tornado is not out of the question,
  especially early on. Any storm will have the potential to drop
  heavy rainfall rates...localized spots of 2-4 inches are not
  out of the question.

- Spotty storm chances remain in the forecast through Wednesday
  night, then return this weekend into early next week.
  Confidence (especially further out in time) in the
  timing/coverage of precipitation is not overly high at this
  point.

- We finally see an end to the brutal heat we have had
  lately...with highs on Wednesday in the 70s-80s, and highs in
  the 70s Thu-Fri, then creeping back into the low-mid 80s by
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

--  A couple of quick short-term forecast-related notes:

HEAT:
- The Heat Advisory was allowed to expire "on time" at 8 PM. In
  hindsight, we probably could have justified expanding it
  earlier today to include several more of our Nebraska counties
  that at least briefly nudged into the 100-105 heat index
  range, but the bottom line is that: 1) The overall-worst areas
  were in the Advisory...2) Heat concerns are DONE for the rest
  of the week and likely beyond as cooler air is moving in.

THUNDERSTORMS:
- At least SO FAR, the convective complex gradually marching
  eastward across the western half of our CWA has largely
  "underachieved", with MOST official/known gusts under 58 MPH.
  However, just within the last few minutes on UNOFFICIAL
  personal weather station just west of Kearney gusted to
  exactly 58 MPH, and it`s possible that an uptick of more 58-65
  MPH winds will occur over the next few hours, with the
  overall-greatest concern for counties along/north of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Currently through tonight...

It`s been an overall quiet day across the area today...another
steamy one for most of the forecast area. Looking aloft, upper
air and satellite data showing generally southwesterly flow in
place across the region, set up between high pressure over the
Srn Plains and NNEward extending ridge axis, and
troughing/embedded disturbances near the West Coast. At the
surface, a frontal boundary has remained fairly stationary
through the day...draped from NWrn KS through northern portions
of our forecast area into NErn NE. Will let Heat Advisory ride
as is through 8PM..with area obs showing several reading in the
105-110 range.

Winds roughly along/north of a LXN-OLU line are more easterly,
sitting north of that boundary, with more southeasterly winds
south of the boundary. Moisture has also been pooling along
that boundary, with dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s...and
combined with temps in the upper 80s-low 90s there, there is
definitely no shortage of instability...with SPC mesoanalysis
page showing high MLCAPE around 3000-5000 j/kg roughly
along/north of I-80 (MUCAPE is 5000-6000+ in spots). Satellite
imagery showing a gradually expanding CU field across southern
portions of the forecast area...and some scattered activity has
already developed over portions of SW NE/western KS. Through the
rest of this afternoon-early evening, focus will be on that sfc
boundary and scattered activity models show potentially
developing along it. A couple things working against storms is
marginal mid-level lapse rates (lower-level rates are better),
and deeper layer shear being on the weak side...but any storms
that develop through early evening and can maintain their
strength would have the best potential for hail along with
damaging winds...and with the easterly component to the winds,
can`t totally rule out an isolated tornado. Activity is expected
to expand in coverage this evening and make a better push east
as a mid-upper level shortwave disturbance moves out onto the
Plains...aided by convergence along an increasing LLJ (models
showing around 35-40kts). The main threat with this complex
sliding west-east across the forecast area is expected to
transition to damaging winds, 60-70 MPH gusts are not out of the
question. Models continue to show the best potential/coverage
of rain to be across our south central NE counties...potentially
much more scattered further south into KS. With no shortage of
low-level moisture and PWat values of 1.5+ inches...any storm
will be efficient rain-makers...and stronger storms will have
the potential for rates exceeding 1" per hour. Considered
issuing a Flood Watch for roughly the northern half of the
forecast area...as there is the potential for localized pockets
of 2-4" of rain. Ultimately decided to hold off...confidence in
where those pockets occur isn`t overly high (models showing
differing locations)...thinking those pockets will be the
exception not the rule...and we`ve also gone several days now
with no precipitation so the ground has had a chance to dry out,
and area crops are mature/able to take in some of that rain.

The main push of the more widespread activity looking like it`ll
exit to the east around 09Z or so...but won`t be totally precip-
free, lingering activity will likely linger/redevelop along
trailing low-level boundaries through the early morning hours.

Mid-week on into early next week...

Have lingering generally low-end precipitation chances (mainly
20-30 percent) continuing on into Wednesday-Wednesday
night...with models showing mid-upper level shortwave energy
slowly moving through the area...but many locations may end up
being dry. The much-welcomed end to the brutal heat remains in
the forecast...between the cooler air mass being the southward
pushing front, more northerly winds, lingering precip chances
and expected partly-mostly cloudy skies...highs for Wednesday
are in the upper 70s north to mid 80s south.

For the rest of the week and into early next week...models
showing generally broad/not overly strong upper level ridging
at times through the Plains, with periodic shortwave
disturbances. At this point, Thursday-Friday are dry, with those
mainly 20-40 percent chances returning this weekend into
Monday. Confidence in the timing/coverage of these disturbances
and associated precipitation is not overly high at this point.

As far as temperature go, not looking at any notable swings
through Monday. Thu-Fri highs remain in the 70s for most, with
more 80s creeping further in through the weekend, with low-mid
80s area-wide by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although confidence is high that the first few hours this
evening will prevail VFR and likely the final few/several hours
as well (Wednesday afternoon), the majority of the "in between"
features several low-to-medium confidence concerns including a
good chance of thunderstorms this evening (possibly strong to
severe?), and also a good chance of sub-VFR ceiling (MVFR and
possibly IFR), along with at least brief MVFR/IFR visibility due
to heavy rain (initially) or mainly light fog (later). Aside
from any potential strong thunderstorm-related outflow, winds
should not be a major issue and remain fairly light, with the
overall-strongest speeds focused Tuesday afternoon (sustained
10-12KT/gusts to around 16KT from the north-northeast).

- Ceiling/visibility and thunderstorm-related details:
Right out of the gate this evening, KGRI/KEAR should remain
thunderstorm-free (and high confidence VFR) for at least 1-2
hours. However, particularly 02-06Z for KEAR/03-07Z for KGRI
will feature a very high chance for a complex of thunderstorms
to pass through, and have included TEMPO groups during these
times for potential IFR visibility (in heavy rain) along with
low-end VFR ceiling and the possibility of erratic/gusty winds
to at least 30KT (could potentially be 40-50KT at worst case).
Once these most favored TEMPO time frames end, there could be a
few hours of lingering/lighter showers/thunderstorms but any
threat for possible strong/severe convection should end.

At that point, the main concern/challenge turns to a decent (but
not "guaranteed") chance for MVFR/IFR ceiling through much of
the morning hours, along with perhaps a period of MVFR
visibility in light fog. Assuming these lower ceiling do
materialize in the first place, have kept at least MVFR going
through 18Z KEAR/19Z KGRI, after which time at least a slight
improvement to low-end VFR ceiling should commence for the final
few/several hours.

On one last note: Although have no formal inclusion of
precipitation in TAFS beyond 16Z, it`s not out of the question
that a rogue/brief shower or weak thunderstorm could occur late
in the period, but with chances low (only around 20%) have omitted
for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch