061
FXUS63 KGID 150749
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
249 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for a some smoke on the eastern horizon today though it
  should remain mostly aloft.

- Temperatures on a slow climb to the upper 90s by the weekend
  resulting in triple digit heat index values.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to continue into early
  next week, but a stray shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be
  entirely ruled out (mainly Thursday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The story remains essentially the same as the last few mornings:
summer temperatures heating up this weekend, and chances for any
precipitation of significance are very low.

Today will be dry though we may see a bit more afternoon cumulus
this afternoon. We will also see more smoke, this time migrating
west/northwest from the mid-Mississippi Valley around the upper
level high pressure. A thick plume of smoke was already into
western Missouri by last evening. The HRRR smoke model hasn`t
handled this smoke well (not enough smoke/too far north), but
the general drift of the smoke should be to the north/northwest
early today. This band of smoke is aloft and air quality
stations in the Plains/Midwest do not show any significant
surface impacts. Look for a colorful sunrise this morning, and
possibly the feel of filtered sunshine through the first half of
the day. Even with the smoke, high temperatures today should
eek out a couple more degrees and still be around 90 (give or
take).

While the forecast is dry through Monday, it is not completely
implausible that a few showers or a thunderstorm pops up late
Thursday afternoon, mainly southeast of Hastings. A small
disturbance is migrating west/northwest through Arkansas and
could trip a couple of showers between 4 and 8 PM Thursday,
though the chance at any one location is less than 15%, and the
forecast doesn`t currently reflect any rain chance until next
week.

Look for temperatures to rise steadily the rest of the week
and into the weekend, peaking Saturday/Sunday. Heat indices
will also creep up too peaking the 98 to 103 degree range.
There may be some areas, especially east of Highway 281
which could be pushing Heat Advisory criteria. This is the
main item to watch this weekend.

A cold front will push through the area Monday. The front
should be basically dry thanks to very warm mid-level
temperatures capping things off. Monday could also be a
pretty hot day as moisture may pool ahead of/along the
front and winds look light. However, relief comes the
middle of next as temperatures fall back to the 80s
and dewpoints drop into the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Ridging continues to dominate the upper level pattern through
this week. Near-normal temperatures today (upper 80s and low
90s) will trend warmer through the remainder of the workweek and
will peak this weekend. Temperatures for this weekend have
trended a touch higher. This is especially true for Sunday where
the 50th percentile NBM is near 100 degrees for the entire area.
Heat index values don`t look to be "extreme," but a few areas
could see values as high as 105.

The model consensus favors dry conditions through the weekend,
although a few models hint at isolated convection as moisture
and weak lift nudge in from the south. This would primarily be
Thursday, although it would not be impossible to see something
isolated any day through the weekend. All that being said, the
strong consensus is for dry conditions to prevail for the
majority of the area. Global ensembles depict an 80-100% chance
for less than 0.10" through Monday. Normal rainfall during this
period is roughly 0.10" per day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with some
light haze from smoke possible along with a few diurnally driven
fair weather CU possible aft about 15/17Z. Overall, winds will
be light at less than 12 KTS out of the east southeast
throughout the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi