377
FXUS63 KGID 112330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low (15-20%) chance for thunderstorms during the evening-
  overnight hours. If a storm does develop it could become
  strong/severe.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible this weekend mainly during
  the overnight hours. Highs this weekend in the 70s (NE) and
  80s (KS)

- Off and on thunderstorm chances continue into next week.
  Cooler, fall-like weather arrives Tuesday with highs in the
  60s/70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

This Evening/Tonight...

Winds are breezy this afternoon gusting 25-35mph ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Temperatures are sitting in the 80s to
low 90s with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. A cold front/dryline is
expected to enter far northwestern portions of the area by the late
afternoon hours. 12z Model guidance overall has trended away from
supporting isolated thunderstorm development this evening along the
aforementioned front. Given overall weak forcing and atmospheric
capping, if a storm does form in the area, it will likely be
isolated. CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg combined with 25-30kts of shear
would support a severe threat (60mph wind gusts, quarter sized hail)
with any storm that does form. Moving into the overnight hours,
can`t completely rule out a storm developing along the front, or
storms that develop north of the area (where forcing is stronger)
sneaking into northeastern portions of the area. Given overall low
confidence in storms, kept PoPs limited to 15-20%.

Saturday...

Saturday morning, isolated-scattered showers with an occasional
rumble of thunder are possible behind the frontal passage. These
showers will gradually shift southeast throughout the morning hours,
exiting by the early afternoon. Breezy northerly winds are expected
behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. The cold frontal passage also
results in pleasant temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the 70s
(NE) to low 80s (KS). As the Low Level Jet develops Saturday night,
it brings additional thunderstorm chances to the area. A reservoir
of elevated instability will be in place north of a frontal boundary
in central/southern Kansas. It`s plausible that a few storms
Saturday night could tap into this instability and shear and
become strong-severe though confidence on coverage of storms is
uncertain. Storms chances (20-50%) Saturday night-Sunday
morning favor southeast/eastern portions of the area.

Sunday...

Lingering showers/storms will likely be ongoing across
east/northeastern portions of the area to start the day on Sunday.
Rain will come to an end by the late morning hours. The surface
front in Kansas will begin to lift north during the day, reaching
northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will be
in the 70s across Nebraska, with temperatures in the low-upper 80s
in Kansas depending on the location of the frontal boundary.
Thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return Sunday night as the LLJ
redevelops.


Next Week...

A more robust shortwave trough pushes into the Plains on Monday,
pushing a cold front into the area. Scattered showers/storms are
favored to develop along this front during the late afternoon-
overnight hours. The front pushes through the area Monday night,
bringing more widespread rain chances. Confidence in the finer
details is lower at this time but some strong-severe storms are
possible. Cooler weather is expected Tuesday onwards behind the
frontal passage, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Off and on
thunderstorm chances continue into the middle of next week as weak
disturbances traverse through the southwesterly-zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. The strong
gusty southerly winds should weaken over the next few hours,
eventually becoming northerly as a cold front passes through the
area. As it passes, there is a slight chance (10-25%) of
isolated showers/thunderstorms between 4-10Z, however,
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this
time. Winds tomorrow will be northerly, increasing to 12-15kt
gusting to 20-24kt in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Scott