028
FXUS63 KGID 111125
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and thunderstorms persist this morning, with
  redevelopment possible in the afternoon. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Dry and quiet weather is expected Tuesday-Friday.

- Heat returns late next week. Heat index values may exceed 100
  degrees Friday/Saturday.

- Rain/t-storm chances return to the area next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

As of 3am, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still
persist west of Highway 183, but this activity remains on a slow
weakening trend over the past few hours. A stronger complex of
thunderstorms continues across southern KS, with only light
stratiform rain extending north of I-70. Most of the area is
expected to remain dry through sunrise, but there could be some
localized fog with the light winds and remaining low-level
moisture.

Near term models then show a few showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping later in the morning (and especially into the
afternoon) as a upper level trough continues to slowly push
through the area. Instability and shear are rather limited
(~1000 J/kg MUCAPE...20kt 0-6km shear), so severe storms are not
expected. The main threats will be lightning and brief
downpours.

Whatever showers/storms develop should wane with sunset, and
most (if not all) activity should remain to our southeast Monday
night. This kicks off a pretty quiet period for most of this
week. A shortwave passing through the northern Plains may kick
off some storms well to our north Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but otherwise the upper level pattern remains pretty
quiet.

By late next week, ridging will build over the central CONUS,
allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s by Thursday/Friday,
and heat index values are expected to challenge 100 degrees in
many places on Friday.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast over the weekend, with
nightly chances for thunderstorms to roll out of western
Nebraska/Kansas and into our area. Temperatures also trend
slightly cooler for the weekend, partly due to uncertainty
surrounding these thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clusters of showers/storms will persist in central
Nebraska this morning. Additionally, spotty IFR ceilings will
also continue through mid morning before improving.

Coverage of storms should gradually shift southeast by late
morning, but there is potential for redeveloping storms to
affect the terminals (mainly GRI) again this afternoon through
early evening.

Dry conditions return this evening, along with light/variable
winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels