381
FXUS63 KGID 220636
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
136 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms arrive from the north early this morning. The
  severe threat has decreased, but a few strong to severe storms
  cannot be ruled out through 9am.

- Dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime today.
  Weakening showers and storms arrive from the west late tonight
  into Sunday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms continue on Sunday, but severe
  weather is unlikely.

- Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms continue through
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern Nebraska
are slowly drifting southward. This is expected to be the
primary feature to watch through the morning hours, although
some isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out further
south/southwest as well.

As of 130am, these elevated storms remain fairly disorganized
and unimpressive, but there is still potential for them to
briefly organize/intensify as they slide through the area in the
3-9am timeframe.

After these storms depart, the rest of the day looks to be dry
with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers
and storms return from the west late tonight...most likely after
2am. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they move
into an increasingly less favorable thermodynamic environment.
As such, severe weather is unlikely.

CAMs suggest that scattered showers/storms could persist through
the daytime on Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will keep
temperatures (and instability) on the lower side. Therefore the
severe threat remains low.

The continued northwesterly flow pattern will keep daily chances
for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week.
Based on the global ensembles, Tuesday night appears to be the
most favorable day for thunderstorms (and perhaps a few severe
storms), but overall details remain very uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Currently through the rest of this afternoon...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way
southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will
continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper
air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a
weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into
NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale
northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn
Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert
SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region,
while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast.
The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a
messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker
pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries
produced by this activity today...winds are variable in
direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots
closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least
for a brief time.

For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will
continue to lie with continued potential for scattered
showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the
forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page
showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper
layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their
way SE will continue to have the potential to be
strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the
upper level disturbance/lift just isn`t overly strong, which
isn`t helping overcome some lingering capping. Large
hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing
about the scattered nature of this activity is that so far,
areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days
are getting a chance to dry up a bit.

Later tonight on into this weekend...

Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue
to show a relative lull across the area through the evening
hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with
models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our
west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side
overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated
activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is
more model support for the timing of the next round of
showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing
this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across
the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level
shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by
frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing
this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg
to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts
possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in
place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area
through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the
primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not
out of the question as well.

Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the
morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing
of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are
in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry.
Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the
area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the
Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit
of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side
around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the
mid-upper 80s.

Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding
around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through
Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the
entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the
SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models
currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just
off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side.

Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on
the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat
night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern
portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable
change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more
southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains.
Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern
areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on
timing of any lingering precipitation.

Next week...

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get
into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence
at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level
disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying
amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so
a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip
chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more
chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not
seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the
week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Sub-VFR conditions possible tonight in storms along with patchy
fog. Patchy fog has recently developed over the area and may
continue off and on through the mid morning hours. Visibilities
are favored to stay largely at or above MVFR though there is
some potential for briefly lower visibility. Scattered
thunderstorms currently near KVTN are expected to move into the
area around 8-13z. These storm could also result in sub-VFR
visibilities though confidence in IFR or lower visibility is too
low to include in the TAF at this time. Have indicated the
fog/storm potential in TEMPO/PROB30 groups. Skies clear as
storms exit the area by the mid- morning hours on Saturday. FEW-
SCT mid- high level clouds continue through the end of the TAF
period. Light and variable winds become easterly during the day
before becoming light and variable again Saturday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis