955
FXUS63 KGID 211727
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1127 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow in parts of northern Kansas today.

- Warming temperatures into next week. Above normal temperatures
  are expected through the end of February

- Low chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Dropped an updated out there to fine tune some flurry
possibilities along and south of Highway 24 in north
central Kansas. Shear zone with weak elongated trough
is dropping appreciable snow along I-70 to the west but it is
forecast to weaken and drift east this afternoon/tonight. Model
trends suggest a downward trend in any flurry potential this
afternoon, but not sure its a 100% no chance. Have really just
confined the small flurry chance to Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell
counties with no real accumulation.

Besides that, updated winds and high temperatures
tomorrow. I lowered temperatures a degree or two, and to be
honest, not sure we will actually get as warm as event that
forecast with very limited snow melt tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures should rise back above
zero fairly quickly this morning. Steady southwest winds will
still result in advisory-level wind chills (-15 to -25) until
around 9am (when the Cold Weather Advisory is set to expire).

An upper level low then will bring a chance for snow showers to
southwestern portions of the area from mid morning through early
afternoon. Northwestern KS could easily see some snow
accumulation with this activity, but per the 00Z HREF, the
potential for accumulating snow in our forecast area is fairly
low (<10%). High temperatures are expected to be in the 20s
today...a huge improvement over our recent record-breaking
cold. That said, it is still about 20 degrees below normal for
late February, and wind chills will struggle to make it out of
the single digits in many areas.

Ridging over the western CONUS will allow for a nice warming
trend through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures
approach/exceed 40 degrees in most spots already on Saturday,
and could exceed 50 in some areas on Sunday. With the widespread
snow cover, there is some uncertainty on quickly we actually
see the warmup, but most models show very little remaining snow
cover by next Monday/Tuesday. The 01Z NBM shows a 60-95% chance
(highest in the west, lowest in the east) of exceeding 60
degrees on Tuesday!

Global deterministic models show an open shortwave moving
southeastward across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This could bring some light precipitation to the area, although
global ensembles are not overly optimistic. The latest 00Z runs
show less than a 10% chance for seeing 0.10" of liquid. Given
the warmth, whatever precipitation does occur would be favored
to fall as rain.

Wednesday will be slightly cooler (but still in the 40s and
50s) with strong northwest winds in the post-frontal airmass.
Afternoon gusts are favored to peak above 40 MPH, per the 00Z
EPS ensemble and 01Z NBM.

Temperatures rebound again for the end of next week, but winter
is not completely over yet... Longer-range ensembles show
another cooldown, along with more opportunities for snow as we
head into the first week of March.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast through the entire period for
both airports with only passing high clouds and no visibility
restrictions expected. Surface high pressure moving to the
southeast of the region will allows winds to keep pick up
a bit from the southwest this afternoon before settling to
a western direction early Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz