893
FXUS63 KGID 051125
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front passage this morning will bring scattered storms
  to the area this afternoon and overnight tonight. The best
  potential lies towards the southeast, though all areas will
  have at least a small chance (>35%) at receiving precipitation
  sometime in the night (some southeastern location could see
  up to 1-2" of precip).

- The strongest of storms, a few potentially severe (producing
  up to quarter sized hail and 60MPH wind gusts), will fall
  between mainly 4PM to midnight. A Marginal Risk of severe
  weather lies across areas southeast of a line from
  Phillipsburg, Kansas to Geneva, Nebraska.

- Cooler temperatures Monday will peak in the mid 50s to low
  60s, warming into the 60s to low 70s TUE/WED and up to the mid
  70s to low 80s the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025


Today through Monday Morning...

This morning a cold front is in the process of passing through the
area from west to east, replacing the gusty southerlies ahead of the
front (gusting up to 35MPH) with less breezy northerlies behind
(gusts only up to 15-25MPH). Beyond the shift in winds, cooler and
drier air will also seep down into the region. In addition, a few
lingering showers along the front will be expected to clear up
quickly this morning before more storms refire later today along the
boundary. Highs will span anywhere from the low to mid 70s for areas
northwest of the Tri-Cities (places where the front passes through
earlier in the morning) up to the 80s for north central Kansas and
places in Nebraska near and east of HWY-281.

The front later this afternoon is expected to slow down across our
north central Kansas to eastern Nebraska areas, offering a broad
zone of convergence. Storms will develop along this baroclinic
boundary in the afternoon and evening, forming a somewhat-linear
southwest to northeast oriented feature/cluster. The best chances
for where these initial storms will fire (50-80%) generally lie
along and southeast of a line from Rooks to York counties shortly
after 4PM.

Though lapse rates behind the front are not expected to be overly
impressive, some elevated instability (500-1000J of MUCAPE) with
decent bulk shear (35-50kts) from the mid-to-upper level jet axis
aloft, may be all that is needed to produce a few stronger to
marginally severe storms. The SPC has kept our southeastern
locations (areas mainly southeast of a line from Phillipsburg, KS up
to Geneva, NE) included in a marginal risk. The strongest storms of
the night should occur before midnight. An expanding coverage of
showers and more elevated storms will expand northwestward behind
the front through the rest of the night with precipitation chances
continually increasing through early Monday morning.

The expansive coverage of these overnight storms and showers may
continue on through the first half of Monday, depositing at least a
few hundredths of precipitation in most if not all areas. The peak
precipitation amounts will be concentrated towards the southeast
with an expected band of 1-2" of rainfall across portions of our
southeastern Nebraska areas (primarily Thayer county) and our
southeastern Kansas areas (primarily Jewell and Mitchell counties).


The Remainder of the Week...

After the last bands of showers/storms move out of the area Monday
afternoon, cloudy skies and the northerly winds will stick around
keeping temperatures from exceeding the mid 60s. Highs in most
locations Monday should reside between the mid 50s to low 60s. A few
residual precipitation chances (20-40%) off towards the southeast
(areas closer to the front just then leaving eastern Nebraska and
central Kansas) will remain in place Monday night. A few hundredths
of precipitation may be accumulated to these places that may of
already receive 1-2" from the night prior.

Aloft, flow behind the trough that controlled the precipitation
chances and gusty winds over the weekend, will return back to a
zonal orientation overnight Monday. Pressure underneath will raise
back behind the front, allowing steady winds to return to a
southerly direction.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to remain in the 60s to
low 70s before jumping up to the mid 70s to low 80s trough the rest
of the week. A few storm/shower remnants from late light convection
may lift up from western and central Kansas late Tuesday night to
Wednesday morning (20-25% chance) with a few more passing storms
potentially clipping parts of eastern Nebraska Wednesday night (15-
20% chance). Beyond then, the forecast through the rest of the week
is dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front moving through the are between 15-19z will turn
southerly winds to the north. Winds will generally stay less
than 15kts for the rest of the day, although an occasional gust
up to 20kts should not fall as a complete surprise.

Storms will near both terminals vicinity between 0-6z, with
prevailing showers and potentially a storm or two in and out
between 6-12z.

VFR conditions will likely stay intact (70% chance), though
lowering ceilings later tonight could challenge MVFR conditions
closer to 12z. Visibilities may be lowered during the 6-12z
time period from the effects of precipitation (as low as 4SM).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump