926
FXUS63 KGID 121152
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
552 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...12z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermediate bursts of light to moderate snow are possible
  through the rest of the morning with decreasing coverage and
  intensity between 12 PM and 6 PM. The transition from
  accumulating snow to flurries will start in our western
  portion and will move east.

- Many areas may see improving conditions before the expiration
  of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory that
  go through 6 PM (early cancellation/downgrades very possible).


- Tonight will become the coldest night of the week with lows
  mainly between -5 and -12 degrees and wind chills values as
  low as -15 to -25 degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect from 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Thursday.

- Two lower confidence precipitation events (20-40%) lie within
  the next 7 days (Fri night / Sat) and (Mon/Tue). Only limited
  to minor impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Wednesday through Thursday morning...

Mainly light to moderate snow continues around the area this morning
as the upper level trough powers through. A few denser snow bands
oriented southwest to northeast may continue to pass in and out,
bringing intermediate bursts of heavier snow rates. Many places
early this morning may observe a lull from some of the heaver snow
rates, however, one more push is expected between 6 AM and Noon as
another concentrated center of moisture works its over up from the
Colorado/Nebraska state line.

Based on limited reports so far, we suspect generally 2 to 4 inches
have fallen so far in MOST places, with our forecast still calling
for generally 1-3 inches still to come. Western parts will become
the first places to see the transition from accumulation snow to
flurries just before noon with the eastern areas transitioning
shortly after (mainly between 2-5 PM). Though the Winter Storm
Warning & Winter Weather Advisory is set to expire at 6 PM tonight,
it is expected that much of the accumulating snow will end before
then. Light snow and flurries may still linger on beyond 6 PM for a
few isolated spots.

Besides the snow, temperatures will top out mainly 11-15 degrees
today, a few degrees colder from Tuesday. It is important to note
that snow cover today mixed with a cold air advecting wind will work
in tandem to keep temperatures on the lower end of the forecast. It
is more likely for highs today to underachieve than exceed
expectations. Wednesday night will be no exception to this rule as
lows are currently projected to drop into the negative single digits
to low negative double digit degrees for areas mainly north of I-80
(50-70% chance). Despite generally lighter winds overnight Wednesday
(mainly 5 to 10 MPH), windchill values will still be likely drop to
as low as -15 to -25 degrees areawide from the temperatures alone.
This has prompted the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for our
entire forecast domain (south central Nebraska & north central
Kansas) in effect from 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Thursday.

Thursday and Friday...

Winds turning southerly Thursday morning with a weak ridging pattern
developing aloft will raise temperatures a couple of degrees
Thursday (20s) and more so on Friday (mid 30s to mid 40s) closing in
on the just below the normal range for this time of year.

Higher pressure residing at the surface will eventually be forced
out Friday as another upstream trough digs into to the south central
U.S., deepening a Low surface pressure center over the eastern
Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient to the west,
charging up some increasing southerly wind gusts Friday. Winds
peaking around 20-25 MPH with gusts as highs as 30-40 MPH will
likely take over the afternoon.

Friday night and Beyond....

The period Friday through early next week looks to have fluctuating
temperatures (between the teens and 30s) with back to back
disturbances kicking up 2 more potentially minor wintry systems.

The first precipitation chance (20-40%) could fall on the backside of
a passing frontal system Friday night. Though this storm now resides
within 3 days, confidence in model guidance has not yet grown in
time. It is becoming more clear that the impacts should stay toward
the minor side of things, though mixed precipitation could play a
wider role as temperatures may not cool off fast enough to fully
eliminate the possibility altogether. Another coating to an inch of
snow is feasible to materialize for a portion of the area, but
widespread impacts are not yet supported. One trend that is
currently supported is the re-introduction of colder air that should
cool things off for the weekend.

A deeper trough is on track to pass over the weekend, with a strong
surface high pressure center following in place behind Friday`s
front. A dry at least 36 hour period separating Saturday night and
Monday morning is followed by our 3rd precipitation chance that may
start as early as Monday morning (20-40%). Any additional details of
impacts at this point in time would be little more than a stab in
the dark.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings (1.5kft) with IFR visibilities (1-2 miles) from
intermediate bursts of light to moderate snow should fluctuate
in and out over the next few hours. Conditions are expected to
start to improve sometime between 16 and 20z as accumulating
snow transitions back to flurries. Though IFR ceilings are
possible (30%), several locations around the area have not seen
bases that low for very long. Clearing skies between 18-0z will
allow IFR/MVFR conditions to "expire". Winds will primarily stay
northerly between 10-20ks today with a westerly orienting
direction overnight.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ082>087.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump