332
FXUS63 KGID 230006
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
606 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible (around a 20% chance) Saturday
  morning...probably overall-most favored in parts of our far
  western counties (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s through Sunday
  before a significant cold front impacts the area.

- High temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected most days
  Monday through next Friday.

- Rain and snow are possible Wednesday through Thursday but
  chances are generally less than 30% as models are trending
  drier for this area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today and tonight...

A big upper trough is over the eastern part of the country and
another upper trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest. Fairly
light southerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will range from
the upper 40s to the upper 50s. Temperatures tonight will be a
little warmer than those from this morning with some clouds across
the area. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday through Sunday night...

The upper trough to the west will move further eastward on Saturday,
but the central part of the country will remain under weak ridging
aloft. There is a slight chance (around 20%) of patchy fog Saturday
morning with light winds present. Some limiting factors on fog
development will be some high clouds and winds possibly becoming
south southwest. Temperatures on Saturday will warm up slightly with
highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures Saturday night
will be in the 30s as winds begin to become westerly with a surface
trough across the area. An upper level trough will begin to move
over the northern and central Plains on Sunday with gusty northwest
winds. A cold front will move into the area with these northerly
winds. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to
the low 60s. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the upper
teens to the lower 30s with gusty northerly winds.

Monday through next Friday...

The colder air will continue impacting the area on Monday with a
surface high that extends from Canada to Texas. High temperatures on
Monday are only expected to reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. Low
temperatures Monday night will be in the mid teens to lower 20s. A
slight, brief warm up is expected on Tuesday with high temperatures
reaching the 40s across the area accompanied by southerly winds. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 20s. Another cold front
with northerly winds will move into the area on Wednesday with high
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is a slight chance
(around 15 to 30 percent) of rain and snow on Wednesday as an upper
trough over the Rocky Mountains moves into the plains. There is
uncertainty in regards to the position and timing of this trough.
The upper trough may move further south than previously thought with
most of the precipitation impacting southern Kansas to northern
Texas. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid teens to
mid 20s. The colder air will continue to impact the area on
Thanksgiving Day with highs in the low 30s to low 40s. Any
precipitation chances will be less than 20% with northerly winds
present. Clearing skies and light, northerly winds will likely
result in temperatures Thursday night dropping into the teens across
most of the area. Temperatures next Friday are expected to be
similar to the previous day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility (and also precip- free
weather) through the majority of the period, with only a fairly
abundant amount of high-level cloud cover streaming overhead
(mainly above 20K ft. AGL). Winds will also be seasonably-light
(sustained mainly at-or-below 10 KT). The main possible
catch/caveat to VFR is the possibility of at least light fog
formation at some point mainly 10-15Z. Details follow...

- Ceiling/visibility:
As mentioned above, the only real concern is at least some
chance (currently deemed around 25 percent chance) for sub-VFR
visibility in at least light fog mainly between 10-15Z. Given
what should be fairly abundant high level clouds, along with an
overall lack of of a "fog signal" in some of the latest model
guidance, felt it was probably best to lean a bit more
"optimistic" in these TAFs versus previous ones. As a result,
have opted to remove several hours of prevailing MVFR visibility
in favor of low-end VFR (6SM BR). That being said, cannot deny
that some fog is still a possibility (along with associated
potential very low ceiling), so stay tuned for possible changes
depending on observational trends.

- Winds:
Direction will remain fairly consistent through the period
(fluctuating mainly between 150-190 degrees...southeasterly to
southerly). Sustained speeds through the vast majority of the
period should remain fairly light at 10KT-or-less, but cannot
rule out slightly higher speeds especially for a few hours Sat
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch