867
FXUS63 KGID 181745
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm activity early this morning will exit
  the local area by daybreak, with another chance for
  thunderstorms (and severe weather) possible tonight.

- A hot afternoon is in store for the region with Heat Index
  values forecast to climb above 100 degrees across the entire
  area. The focus of the most oppressive heat will be east of
  Highway 281, where Heat Index values will approach 105.

- More seasonal temperatures (mid to upper 80s) return for mid-
  week, with a potential cool down possible over the upcoming
  weekend - with high temperatures potentially not climbing out
  of the 70s by Sunday afternoon.

- Most of the area will remain dry for the middle portion of the
  week with a more active weather pattern returning over the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A bit of an active night across the local area as showers and
thunderstorms clipped the northern and eastern portions of the
area. This activity was slow to move, and suspect some localized
flooding impacted portions of Polk county, where automated
rain gages indicated 2-3 inches of rain fell over the course of
a couple of hours.

As the overnight activity tracks east this morning, skies will
eventually clear, with a hot afternoon in store for the local
area. Contemplated the issuance of a heat advisory for this
afternoon, but with some question on how quickly morning cloud
cover will clear and what impact that will have on temperatures,
opted against any headlines and will continue to message in HWO
and other products today. That said, even without the headline
it will be hot, with afternoon heat index values approaching
105, especially for areas east of Highway 281.

For tonight, SPC upgraded the outlooks this morning to include a
slight risk for severe weather this evening as a cluster of
storms is forecast to develop across the high plains and reach the
local area as an MCS by early evening. As this system
organizes, strong thunderstorm wind gusts look to be the primary
concern, although marginally large hail (to around quarter
size) cannot be ruled out.

Behind this system, marginally cooler air will filter in across
the local area Tuesday afternoon, although heat index values
could still reach 100 degrees in spots. The significantly
cooler air is not anticipated until the latter part of the week
and into next weekend, with temperatures forecast to top out in
the 70s and low 80s across the majority of the area this
weekend.

For the middle portion of the week, seasonal temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are expected Wed-Fri, with mainly dry weather
as high pressure aloft will limit any convective activity.
Things should again become more active late in the week as the
upper level ridge retreats into the desert southwest and
northwesterly flow aloft returns, bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Outside of some FEW to SCT cumulus between 3-5K ft, should be
mostly sunny rest of today with only lgt NE or VRBL winds.

Still tracking the potential for iso to scat shwrs/storms moving
in from the west tonight. Models have trended a bit slower and
weaker/less organized, so pushed back the start time of the
PROB30 group a couple of hours. Still uncertain where exactly
this activity will track, which is why confidence wasn`t enough
to go prevailing or VCTS. Gusty winds would be the primary
concern. Outside of any shower/storm activity, winds will
continue to be lgt and vrbl overnight. Decreasing clouds and
light NE winds expected Tue AM. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies