656
FXUS63 KGID 310946
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 50s today with breezy winds gusting 20-30mph this morning.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s Saturday and Sunday with a cold front moving
  through the area Sunday afternoon.

- Near normal temperatures (highs 30s/40s, Lows 10s/20s) next
  week with a low (15-20%) chance for precipitation Wednesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Today and Tonight...

Rain is currently exiting far southeastern portions of the forecast
area as the surface low moves east into the central Midwest. Skies
are clear behind the rain, with lows this morning expected to fall
below freezing across the area. Aloft, the upper level low which
brought rain to the area will move east into the Great Lakes with
weak ridging-zonal flow building over the area. Winds will
strengthen this morning as the pressure gradient tightens behind the
departing surface low. Northerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected
in the morning before gradually weakening this afternoon. Highs this
afternoon will be in the 50s, warmest across southwestern portions
of the area. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 20s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Southerly flow returns to the area early Saturday morning ahead of
an approaching shortwave trough. Winds will be breezy in the
morning, gusting 20 to 25 mph, becoming lighter in the afternoon as
the base of the surface trough moves over the area. Highs on
Saturday will climb into the 50s, with highs in the low 60s possible
for areas along/west of Highway 183. If mid/high level cloud
coverage is less robust or if the surface trough is quicker to pass
through the area, greater atmospheric mixing could be achieved which
would lead to more widespread 60s.

Highs on Sunday will be highly dependent on the timing of the cold
frontal passage. How far south the cold front makes it is uncertain,
with areas south of the Nebraska-Kansas border most likely to remain
ahead of the front through the day. Highs on Sunday will range from
the upper 40s where the cold front is quickest to pass through, to
the low 60s where the cold front is slowest to reach. Overall,
Saturday and Sunday look to be the warmest days for at least the
next 7-10 days, so get outside and enjoy them if you can.

A few snow showers are possible (15%) late Sunday evening
across far northern portions of the area. ECMWF and GFS ensemble
guidance keeps the highest chances for accumulations north of
the forecast area, though a shower sneaking into Valley/Greeley
county can`t be ruled out. Little if any accumulation is
possible with this snow.


Monday Onwards...

Zonal flow will build and persist over the area through mid-week.
Temperatures next week return to their climatological normals, with
highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens to low 20s. The next
chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night for areas
along/north of I-80 as a shortwave trough moves into the area.
Again, any precipitation looks to remain minimal, with GFS and ECMWF
ensembles showing a less than 10% chance for 1" of snow.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. Mid-level clouds are
moving out of the area as a low moves out of the area, with
clear skies expected to persist through most of the TAF period.
There is a very low (10%) chance for a few low MVFR clouds to
move into the area around sunrise, but chances are low enough it
was not included.

Marginal LLWS is possible just before sunrise but
will quickly clear as surface winds increase. Winds will be
breezy, mainly after sunrise with gusts of 20-25kts. Winds will
gradually decrease in the afternoon with winds becoming light
and variable around sunset as they shift to the southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis