310
FXUS63 KGID 242319
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...00z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms move into southwestern
  portions of the area overnight. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Seasonably cool weather expected through the forecast period,
  with highs ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s.

- Scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Monday
  onwards. The overall highest PoPs (20-70%) are Wednesday-
  Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers/storms from this morning have largely exited
southeastern portions of the area/dissipated. Temperatures this
afternoon are currently sitting in the upper 60s to mid 70s, coolest
where cloud coverage had been more robust. A few showers/storms
remain possible (15-25%) this afternoon, mainly for areas southwest
of the Tri-Cities.

Aloft, the area remains under northwesterly flow as troughing sits
over the Great Lakes and ridging builds over the West Coast. A
shortwave will traverse the broader troughing as it moves into the
Plains overnight. Scattered showers/storms from this passing
disturbance will move into west/southwestern portions of the area
overnight. Showers/storms overnight look to stay mainly across
western/southwestern portions of the area (Lexington to Beloit).
Instability remains weak (MUCAPE < 1000J/Kg), keeping the threat for
a strong-severe storm fairly low. The main concern to keep an eye on
overnight is the potential for minor/localized flooding due to
training thunderstorms. Most model guidance keeps the axis of
highest QPF just west/southwest of the forecast area. Areas along
and west of a line from Beaver City to Osborne could see 1-2" of
rain overnight if the axis of heaviest rain were to set up slightly
east of current expectations. Lows tonight will range from the low
50s where skies become partly cloudy (northeast) to the low 60s
where cloud coverage persists (south).

Monday...

Scattered showers/storms will be ongoing across southwestern
portions of the area Monday morning. These storms are expected to
steadily decrease from north to south during the morning hours,
exiting far southern portions of the area by the afternoon. Highs on
Monday will be highly dependent on cloud coverage. Highs in the mid
70s are possible where skies clear the most, with the most robust
cloud coverage confining highs to the upper 60s. A weak disturbance
could lead to a few scattered showers/storms north of Interstate 80
Monday night.

Tuesday Onwards...

Cooler and active weather continues through late next week.
Troughing largely persists over the eastern third of the U.S. with a
series of disturbances helping to prevent ridging from strengthening
over the Plains. These disturbances bring multiple chances for
precipitation to the area. The most notable chance for rain in the
long range looks to be Wednesday/Wednesday night as a disturbance
moves out of the central Rockies. This could produce heavy rainfall
across portions of north central Kansas though the exact location of
this rain remains uncertain. Portions of north-central Kansas are
outlined in a WPC day 4 slight risk for excessive rainfall. High
temperatures each day will depend on cloud coverage/precipitation
location, bringing a slightly higher level of uncertainty. Still,
highs will largely range from the upper 60s under cloudy skies to
the mid-upper 70s under partly-mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

BKN to OVC skies are expected to retain across the next 24
hours, with ceilings holding between 4-8kft. Bases are not
expected to dip into MVFR ceilings (80% confidence). A few
showers and some lower intensity thunderstorms are possible
(mainly for KEAR) between 6-9z. Otherwise, light winds will
remain variable overnight, settling out of the southeast for
Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump