162
FXUS63 KGID 190940
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
440 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy morning fog, some of which could be dense, will linger
  across portions of the area through around 10 AM CDT.

- Hot and humid conditions conditions return again this
  afternoon, with heat index values reaching 100 degrees across
  parts of the local area (focused on north central Kansas).

- A couple spotty (non-severe) thunderstorm chances
  today/tonight, with mostly dry conditions Wednesday and
  Thursday (still warm, but a bit more seasonal with highs
  mostly in the 80s to near 90).

- Cooler (and occasionally unsettled) weather expected for the
  upcoming weekend through early next week, with the best
  chances for any thunderstorm activity coming during the
  evening/overnight hours each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A much quieter night across the region than expected 24 hours
ago. A few showers and thunderstorms impacted mainly portions of
north central Kansas during the overnight hours, with this
activity since diminishing early this morning. Some high clouds
can be seen on satellite streaming across the local area, but
they area thinning out early this morning, allowing for some
patchy fog development across the region. While so far the fog
has been fairly light and spotty, expect the potential for some
dense ground fog through the early morning hours...with
visibilities potentially falling below 1/2 mile in spots.

For the remainder of today, expect some very spotty thunderstorm
chances to continue through the afternoon and early evening
hours, with models focusing the best potential across portions
of north central Kansas and extreme south central Nebraska later
today. With a lack of a notable forcing mechanism and very weak
shear, severe weather is not anticipated and the vast majority
of the local area will likely not see any thunderstorm activity.

As skies then clear tonight, expect the potential repeat of fog
development as SREF probs are indicating similar chances for fog
formation again early Wednesday morning, albeit winds will be
more east southeasterly (upslope), which could enhance fog
development during the overnight hours again tonight.

Slightly (1-3 degrees) cooler weather is then anticipated for
Wednesday, which could help keep afternoon heat indices in the
90s for the majority of the area, but it will still be hot, as
very light winds will not help out with the heat. Some CAMS,
such as the HRRR, are indicating the potential for a couple pop
up type showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along our
border with OAX, and coordinated with our neighbors to add some
small pops along and east of the highway 81 corridor Tuesday
afternoon.

Continued light winds, warm temperatures, and minimal
thunderstorm chances are expected for the daytime hours
Thursday, before the upper level flow pattern begins to shift
and eventually become more northwesterly for a prolonged period
of time beginning Friday. This should usher in more noticably
cooler weather over the upcoming weekend along with potentially
a bit more unsettled conditions, with the focus of any shower or
thunderstorm activity likely coming during the evening and
overnight hours each day. Given the warm stretch of late, the
forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s Sunday-Tuesday will
likely feel quite nice.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS expected overnight as fog is forecast to
develop across the region, with possible further deterioration
towards daybreak. For the time being, kept conditions MVFR...but
will need to monitor as some model data suggest LIFR conditions
will be possible for a few hours. After any fog burns off,
prevailing VFR conditions are expected for the daytime hours
Tuesday as any SHRA/TSRA activity is expected to remain south of
the terminal. Could see a repeat development of FG in light SE
flow late Tuesday night, but did not advertise for the time
behind as want to see how this morning turns out first.
Overall...mainly light and variable winds expected at both site
through the afternoon hours Tuesday, with winds eventually
becoming SErly aft 20/00Z as and area of surface high pressure
slides into the Missouri River valley.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi