168
FXUS63 KGID 292347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered non-severe storms will
  occasionally pass through mainly eastern and southeast
  portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning. The best
  potential will peak thursday morning.

- An even more organized cluster of potentially strong to severe
  storms, will pass from northwest to southeast across the area
  between mainly 7PM and 1AM Thursday night.

- The strongest storms Thursday evening/night may bring
  damaging wind gusts up to 60-70MPH, hail up to the size of
  quarters and locally heavy rainfall.

- The next chance of precipitation (15-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night.

- Highs over the weekend will mainly range the 80s, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of next week (upper 80s and
  90s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026


Following the widespread thunder showers this morning, precipitation
chances have generally plummeted for the rest of the day (only 10-
30%; concentrated towards the far eastern and southern portions of
the area). The coverage of any overnight to Friday morning non-
severe storm activity, will primarily impact the eastern to
southeast half of the area (mainly areas east/southeast of the Tri-
Cities). The HRRR and NAMNEST high-resolution models have recently
began to show increasing potential for a broader coverage of these
shower and weak thunderstorms during the the Thursday AM period,
mainly across eastern Nebraska and central and eastern Kansas.
Though precipitation totals are not expected to surpass this
morning`s amounts, locally up to just over 1" of rainfall may be
possible in places through the morning. The better storm potential,
however, will not come until the evening hours.

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the northern
Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity and cold air
advection to the region, helping to increase instability and
buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the area. In addition,
surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave disturbance, will help
organize an around 1006mb surface cyclone across north central
Nebraska and central South Dakota. As this cyclone strengthens
across the afternoon and evening hours, a surface cold front will
undergoing frontogenesis across central Nebraska/Kansas. This
feature will likely serve as the primary mechanism for evening
thunderstorm development, likely driving a line of convection across
a majority of the area from northwest to southeast between mainly
7PM and 1AM. Given the high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE),
steepening low-level lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of
bulk shear (EBWD); the potential for severe weather will remain. The
main concern would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as
60-70MPH. Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger
storms may still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up
to the size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the
full area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Expecting overall quiet conditions this evening...with the main
concern though this TAF period once again coming later in the
overnight hours and shower/storm chances. Prior to those
chances, have VFR conditions going, with southeasterly winds
around 10 MPH. Models are in decent agreement with the timing,
showing the better chances from around 08-09Z on through mid-
morning on Thursday...kept the PROB30 group going at this point,
as uncertainties remain with the overall coverage of activity.
Not out of the question that if activity does impact the
terminal sites, sub-VFR conditions could occur. Otherwise,
forecast dries back out from mid-morning on through the end of
the period Thursday...winds remain southeasterly, gusts near 20
MPH will be possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP