597
FXUS63 KGID 231725
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmup continues through the middle of the week. Above normal
  temperatures are expected each day through next weekend.

- There is a low chance (15-20%) for light rain late Tuesday
  night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise dry conditions are
  expected.

- Seasonable temperatures are favored next week, along with a
  chance for more wintry precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Despite the snow cover, temperatures on Saturday were a few
degrees warmer than expected. Because of this, the temperature
forecast was trended upwards for today through Tuesday. There is
high confidence (80%) that the entire area will see temperatures
exceed 60 degrees by Tuesday (if not sooner). There is also very
high confidence (95%) in dry conditions today through Tuesday
night.

The only chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves northwest to southeast
across the area. Precipitation would fall as cold rain, with
overnight lows only expected to dip into the mid to upper 30s in
most areas. Coverage is expected to be spotty, with many areas
remaining dry...especially west. The probability for seeing
anything more than 0.10" is very low (5-10%).

Behind this system, Wednesday will be slightly cooler, with
gusty northwest winds. Even so, high temperatures are expected
to reach the 50s in most areas. This prolonged stretch of warmth
will likely allow ice to melt and break up on area rivers, which
will temporarily increase the risk for ice jam flooding.
Continue to monitor water levels if you have interests in low-
lying areas near rivers.

Additionally, as the snow disappears, we will start seeing lower
humidity values during the afternoon. This will lead to increase
fire weather conditions, especially when combined with gusty
northwest winds on Wednesday and Friday.

Dry conditions are expected late in the week through next
weekend. The pattern is then expected to become more active and
cooler (not overly cold) the following week (March 4-9)

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Westerly winds will
shift to the southwest this evening. Winds will increase to
around 10kts overnight, and shift back to the northwest. SCT-BKN
cirrus around 200 are expected late this evening through the
early morning hours. There is a low chance for some very
marginal LLWS overnight (mainly 05-10z). Confidence is too low
and it appear too marginal to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis