597
FXUS63 KGID 201130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions to dominate the next week (and beyond
  most likely) with heat index values reaching 105 degrees in
  some areas Monday and Tuesday.

- Shower/storm chances remain most days, though they are less
  than recent days (mostly 20-30%) and widespread rain looks
  unlikely until Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The area is experiencing some linger showers and thunderstorms
early today but the general trend has been to weaken and be less
invasive with time. That leads into the day today, which looks
much less active in terms of thunderstorm potential. Basically
the weak surface front across the area will lift north or wash
out some and put the focus for late afternoon thunderstorms to
a more limited area of southwest Nebraska per CAMs. Did include
some other chances for storms in eastern/northern areas but
that may end of up being farther northeast. The bottom line is
the risk for storms today/tonight is much less and more isolated
in nature. Temperatures today will be similar to Saturday as
south/southeast breeze takes hold. Morning clouds will slowly
give way to sunshine in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to align as the hottest days of the
week and still appear in line for potential heat headlines. The
pattern has been a bit messy with convection so it may be best
to make final decision on the next shift for advisory timing.
Apparent temperatures of 102 to 108 are possible both Monday
and Tuesday afternoons, with some of the most sultry conditions
likely enhanced by local evapotranspirative effects.
Thunderstorms chances aren`t zero, but clearly less (as
expected), and focused at night in south central Nebraska (not
so much north central Kansas).

As we get to later Wednesday/Thursday...we will see a front
sag down into the south central Nebraska, while upper heights
lower amid a broad southwest flow. That is likely to bring the
next best shot for more widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, centered basically on Wednesday night/Thursday.
Temperatures may drop a bit but it will be seasonally very warm
and humid to end the week.

Briefly, after the slightly "cooler" and more unsettled weather
of Thursday/Friday, temperatures will warm again as upper
heights rise and the high pressure may actually migrate north
to the Kansas/Nebraska area next week. H85 warm temperature
anomalies are strong and suggest the week of July 28th will
also be very warm/hot/humid week for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR conditions rapidly developed at KGRI
the past 30 minutes or so with 1/4SM FG and OVC002
ceiling. KGRI appears to be on the edge of the low
clouds but satellite hasn`t been much help with mid
and high clouds obscuring the low cloud deck. KEAR
is also on the edge with some scattered low clouds
now. Have kept the low clouds/fog around in KGRI
through late morning and brought them in with a
tempo group at KEAR with uncertainty about how far
west they will extend. Eventually a southerly flow
will set up and low clouds will lift/push north
leaving VFR conditions by mid afternoon for the the areas.
Winds will remain under 12kts despite picking up a bit today.
Have including no chance for thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz