731
FXUS63 KGID 050539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for the entire area.

- Next week starts cooler (70s), but gradually warms back to the
  mid and upper 80s by mid-week.

- High confidence (over 80%) that the entire area stays dry
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The primary concern in this forecast package was the fire
weather threat for tomorrow. Specific information regarding that
can be found in the Fire Weather section below.

After a gorgeous day today, increasing southerly winds will keep
temperatures a bit on the warmer side tonight (lows mostly in
the 50s).

Southwesterly winds continue to increase Saturday morning ahead
of an advancing cold front. The entire area should end up quite
warm tomorrow (80s and 90s), but our far SW will be downright
hot with temperatures possibly topping 95 degrees in spots like
Beloit and Hebron. Winds then turn to the northwest as the front
moves through the area during the afternoon.

Dry air behind the front should allow temperatures to dip back
into the upper 30s and 40s for most areas Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The typically cold spots (Valley and Dawson
Counties) could see some very patchy frost.

Sunday, high temperatures are expected to "only" be 3-5 degrees
above our climatological normals, but the rest of next week will
gradually trend warmer with upper level ridging moving overhead.
Global ensembles continue to portray very high confidence in dry
conditions through next week. 50 out of the 51 ensemble members
of the EPS ensembles are completely dry through Friday night.
Even next weekend into the following week, the potential for any
meaningful rain is very low (just 10-20% chance for 0.10").

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Wind shear is
expected beginning around 10z and lasting until around 15z.
Winds will be light out of the south overnight then increase out
of the southwest with some gusts around 15z. Winds will become
northerly around 19z with some gusts and are expected to weaken
by 00z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Schuldt