427
FXUS63 KGID 110900
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting the daytime hours to be dry for most, if not all, of
  the forecast area today. Main concern will be this
  evening/tonight, and whether storms can fire along a passing
  surface cold front. Most models showing coverage of activity
  being on the sparse side. Should storms form, not out of the
  question a few could be strong/marginally severe.

- Highs this afternoon bump to around the 90 degree mark...with
  the frontal boundary passing through tonight ushering in
  cooler highs for Saturday in the mid 70s-low 80s.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances continue on into the weekend and
  the first half of the new work week...some uncertainties with
  finer timing/location details linger. Location of the
  lingering surface boundary this weekend will help play a role.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions reign across the forecast early this
morning...satellite data showing some upper level cirrus working
its way east thorugh western NE, but skies are currently clear
for our area. Looking in the upper levels...data are showing
generally zonal flow in place across the area, with the only
notable disturbance in the immediate region being off to our SE,
working toward the OK/AR border. Further off to our north and
west, an area of low pressure currently spinning over central
portions of Canada, while another shortwave disturbances is
pushing further into the Pac NW. At the surface, automated obs
across the forecast area showing continued southerly winds,
generally around 10 MPH....set up between high pressure set up
over the Great Lakes/Midwest regions and a trough axis draped
through the High Plains.

Today/Tonight...

For much of the forecast area, conditions are looking like
they`ll stay dry. Models are in good agreement in the bigger
picture aloft, keeping that generally zonal flow in place across
the region. Main change comes later in the day and into this
evening and overnight...as a somewhat subtle shortwave
disturbance embedded in the main flow works its way east out of
the Rockies and onto the Central Plains, while better upper
forcing is set up further north across the Dakotas into Canada.
A surface cold front will be working its way south toward the
area during the daytime hours today, getting most of its push
from that upper level forcing off to our north...and models
aren`t in too bad of agreement showing around 00Z this evening,
the front is right along our NWrn edge. Through the 12- 00Z
timeframe/daytime hours today, expecting breezy southerly winds
ahead of that approaching frontal boundary...gusts around 25-30
MPH are not out of the question. Expecting partly cloudy skies,
with a bump up in temperature...forecast highs around mainly
within a couple degrees either side of the 90 degree mark.

This evening and tonight...main concern lies with the passage of
this surface frontal boundary, and how much thunderstorm
activity develops along it. There continue to be some
differences between models with just how much coverage there
ends up being...but most show activity being fairly sparse
across our forecast area. Even with the sfc boundary moving
through helping provide a focus...models show warmer mid-level
temps/capping the further south you go from the better upper
level forcing and focus along an increasing LLJ...both of which
bring better chances just off to our north. Certainly hard to
totally rule out any storms, so chances are on the broader side
across the forecast area...but due to the expected lower overall
coverage, those chances remain on the low side (20 percent).
Now if storms are able to develop along that boundary or slide
in from the NNW, models showing MLCAPE values exceeding 1500
j/kg available, and deeper layer shear around 30 kts...so it`s
not out of the question some storms could be strong/marginally
severe. All but our extreme southern areas remain included the
SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area...hail/damaging winds would be the
primary hazards.

This weekend into early next week...

The surface cold front pushing south through tonight ushers in a
cooler day for Saturday...with one big question being where
exactly does the front stall out once it loses its upper level
push. At sunrise Saturday morning...models are in decent
agreement showing the front draped across far SSE portions of
the forecast area....working its way totally south of the
forecast around by around midday. Expecting much of the day to
be dry, though some models try keeping spotty light activity
around...forecast hangs on to some 20 percent chances. Winds
through the day remain ENE, with afternoon highs topping out in
the mid 70s-low 80s.

Better chances return during the evening/overnight hours
Saturday...again upper level lift is on the more subtle side,
with some help from an increasing (but not overly strong) low-
level jet bringing elevated activity north of the main sfc
boundary...but there is some uncertainty with exactly the better
focus will line up. Forecast chances increase into the 30-50
percent range, mainly across the ESErn half of the area. There
will continue to be the potential for some storms to be on the
strong-marginally severe side...again hail/wind being the
primary threats.

Sunday on into the first part of the new work week bring
additional chances for showers and storms...though there are
some lingering uncertainties with finer details, including exact
location of the sfc front (does it work its way back north more
into the heart of forecast area). The better, more widespread
chances to start the new week are currently focused roughly in
the Monday evening-Tuesday night time frame...when models show a
stronger upper low/troughing working through the western CONUS
and eventually onto the Plains, though its exact evolution is
still a bit up in the air, as it will have an upper level ridge
axis helping steer things as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

No precip is expected today (THU) through at least FRI evening,
outside of a very low chance (<10%) for a quick pop-up
thunderstorm in our far western CWA.

Tomorrow (FRI), temps will be in the 80s F to low 90s, but heat
indices will not a concern. A few isolated thunderstorms will
be possible for our southwestern CWA during the early evening as
a surface low develops in SD and an approaching associated
front stalls over west-central KS. This front will stall beneath
subtle mid-level diffluence / jet forcing. However, confidence
in these storms developing remains low as the best jet streak /
advective forcing aloft looks to remain off to the east, and
700-hPa temperatures are expected to hold around 10 C. Overall,
12z HREF probabilities suggest 30 - 50% chances for these storms
to develop. If storms do develop, however, severe hazards will
be possible with pockets of severe winds and hail owing to steep
low-level lapse rates beneath thicker CAPE profiles in the hail
growth zone. Additionally, southerly sustained winds of 15 - 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the northern and
central portions of our CWA, particularly in the during peak
heating.

Overnight FRI into SAT, a few more storms are anticipated to
work across our north-central CWA counties as the stalled front
begins to advance east with its parent shortwave. SPC currently
has this area on the edge of their SLGT risk zone, with wind and
hail as hazards. Marginally-severe hail looks the likeliest as
storms are expected to stay elevated on the cool side of the
passing front, which will likely help limit winds aloft from
mixing down to the surface. Non- thunderstorm gusts early SAT
morning can reach 25 mph on the backside of the advancing front
for our western and northern counties, with lows bottoming out
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers will linger for eastern counties
on SAT through the late morning and afternoon hours. The
previous night`s cold front (potentially augmented by stalled
outflow) will come to rest just southeast of our KS counties.
Storms may initiate along this boundary in the evening and move
along / north of this boundary, as indicated by most members of
the 12z REFS. Given PWATs of 1.6 - 1.8 in on SAT evening,
localized flooding for our far southeastern CWA will need to be
monitored, but no major impacts are anticipated.

Sunday will be serve as a transition day between two troughs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but severe
probabilities look low. An isothermal layer up to near 700 mb
owing to ridging between the troughs will likely keep most of
this precip non-storm related, where storms would be reserved to
localized pockets of strong mesoscale ascent. SUN will also be
breezy, with gusts in the 25 - 30 mph range from late morning
lasting through SUN and into MON.

Monday is expected to return severe chances to our CWA as the
next trough arrives in the evening hours with 35 - 45 kts of
right- entrance flow at 500 mb per the 12z GEFS. The 06z EPS
also suggests that a potent 850-mb LLJ will be in place late MON
night with the nose placed over east-central NE. SPC currently
holds us in their Day 5 15% outlook. Outside of storms, MON will
be windier with gusts up to 35 mph. Lows Tuesday morning behind
the cold front will dip to the upper 40s F for our far
northwestern CWA, and broader 50s F for most.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. A slight
chance of sub VFR ceilings (down to near 1000ft) is possible
from 9-16Z. This was highlighted by the low scattered group, as
in the last TAF. Marginal LLWS around 25-28kts still remains a
possibility between 7-13Z this morning, though not included in
the TAF due to being below criteria. Strong southerly winds
gusting to 25-28kt are possible this afternoon. While not
included in the TAF due to forecast uncertainty, thunderstorms
are possible near KGRI/KEAR after 23Z, though recent model
guidance has kept thunderstorm activity south of the terminals.
An approaching cold front will lead to a northerly wind shift at
the end of the period. This detail was left out of this current
TAF due to frontal timing uncertainty and its occurrence at the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Scott