512
FXUS63 KGID 220519
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered strong to marginally severe storms this
  afternoon could bring locally heavy rainfall, hail up to
  quarter size and wind gusts near 60 MPH. A marginal risk of
  severe weather (level 1 of 5) is in place across much of the
  area.

- A flood watch remains in effect until midnight tonight for a
  few of our southeastern Nebraska counties and Smith and
  Jewell counties in Kansas.

- Heat Indices from 100-107 degrees will be possible Tuesday afternoon.
  A Heat Advisory across the full area remains in effect until
  8PM Thursday.

- A cold frontal passage early Thursday will drop temperatures before
  a likely more robust wave of heat arrives Saturday through at
  least next Monday.

- A few storms could develop ahead of the cold front Wednesday
  afternoon to night (40-60% chances).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025


Tonight and Tuesday...


A few storms early this morning, developed way ahead of schedule
along a line of convergence left from storms last night across
northeastern Kansas. These morning and early afternoon storms have
keep clouds in place longer than what was originally anticipated
for the day, limiting highs a tad below what was expected (low 90s
to low 100s). In addition these storms, mainly crossed through our
Kansas and our southeastern Nebraska areas, locations that were
originally expected to see the warmest temperatures across the full
area. In all, conditions across a good portion of the area may fall
just short of Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. The advisory
will still run through 7PM Tuesday to account for warming
temperatures tomorrow afternoon. However, if storms tonight
redevelop late and stay later into early Tuesday morning, such as
with what happens today, the heat for tomorrow could also be
impacted to a degree.

The potential for a few more developing storms later this evening
remain on the table of possibilities (20-30% chances). The main
uncertainty that lies is how much instability is still left from
across our southeastern areas. On satellite, our western Kansas as
well as much of our western Nebraska areas have seen some clearing
as storm move east. If the sun`s heating is able to recharge
afternoon instability across these places, the potential for a few
additional storms this evening may still be possible. Though storms
may be able to pop up anywhere tonight, the better chances will
generally start in the southwest and will move towards the northeast
through the evening/night.

In the case that a few more isolated storms do redevelop this
evening, the severe potential also remains for a few strong to
marginally severe storms. The main hazards would be gusty winds up
to 60 MPH, hail up to the size of quarters and locally heavy
rainfall. The SPC severe weather outlook keeps much of the area in a
Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5). In addition to the
severe risk, a Flash Flood watch has been issued for a few of our
southeastern Nebraska counties and Smith and Jewell counties in
Kansas. Any additional storms across our southeastern areas this
evening, on top of the precipitation that these places have already
received today, could cause some minor flooding. The WPC included
our southeastern areas into the slight risk (15% chance) excessive
rainfall outlook.

Assuming that precipitation and storm coverage remains on the more
limited side of things tonight, the extent of cloud coverage Tuesday
should be limited. This will allow solar heating as well as steady
15-20 MPH southerly warm air advecting flow, raise temperatures up
to the mid 90s to low 100s. The warmest temperatures should
naturally lie towards the south, peaking between 4 and 6 PM in the
afternoon. Heat index values are expected to raise into the 100s and
up to 107 degrees across the full area, generally warmest towards
the northeast where dewpoints are greater (up to the mid 70s). The
area-wide Heat Advisory is set to run through 7PM Tuesday evening. A
Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk covers the
full area, highlighting the potential for this heat to impact the
most sensitive individuals as well as anyone without an effect
cooling/hydration source.


Wednesday though Friday...


The strengthening of the eastern to central U.S. ridge will be
temporarily halted Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave trough
passes over the Northern Plains. This disturbance will be responsible
for cooling temperatures down some (around 10 degrees) as a weak cold
front dips into the area early Thursday. Highs by Thursday will be
expected to drop down to the mid 80s to mid 90s. The steady
southerly flow will be bent northeast Thursday when the front passes
through. In addition, a weak embedded upper-level low, currently
centered over the Texas/Mexico border, should also pass just to our
southeast on Thursday. The onset of this disturbance/frontal passage
could help stir up some scattered storms Wednesday night (40-60%
chances), a few of which may have the potential to become severe.
There does not appear to be enough agreement between models to
provide much more confidence in location or threat assessment at
this point in time.


Saturday and Beyond...


A likely more aggressive wave of heat is expected to take shape again
starting Saturday. The ridging over the Central Plains will be
expected to strength in magnitude over the weekend, brining
regional subsidence. This sinking air should limit precipitation
chances overall, though a few storms could still be able to find a
way to break out each day. This is why a few 15-30% PoPs have been
sprinkled across portions of the area. It is more likely that the
majority of the area will stay fairly dry with little in terms of
precipitation totals. Rising temperatures aided from both solar
heating from mostly clear skies and diabatic heating from the
building ridge, will send highs back up into the 90s and low 100s
Saturday through at least next Monday. Heat index values should
additionally crest over 100 degrees each afternoon during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Large cirrus shield over the region with VFR conditions
expected overnight. Tonight doesn`t appear to have the low cloud
potential the past couple nights have had though will have to
watch for brief MVFR level clouds toward morning. Wasn`t
confident enough to include in the forecast. VFR conditions are
forecast for the day with a high clouds filter through, and an
at times gusty south wind during the daytime/early evening
hours. A strong low level will kick in late in the forecast
resulting in non-convective low level wind shear Tuesday night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ006-007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz