279
FXUS63 KGID 020541
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies from wildfire smoke has reduced air quality across
  the full area into unhealthy levels for the most sensitive
  groups. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for our Nebraska
  area through 5PM Saturday.

- A few chances for thunderstorms return late tonight, mainly
  after midnight (15-30%) with intermittent chances beginning
  Saturday night (40-50%) and lasting into portions of Sunday
  (15-30%) and Sunday night (20-45%).

- The severe weather potential remains low this weekend with the best
  potential towards our western edge/fringes (closer to the
  direction storms will be coming from). Gusty winds and heavy
  downpours may still be possible within the strongest storms.

- High temperatures will range between the mid 70s to mid 80s
  through Monday before warming up through the rest of next
  week. Highs should range the full 90s again by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025


     Tonight...


Hazy skies this afternoon from canadian based wildfire smoke has
infiltrated into a good portion of the area today. This plume of
smoke has dropped air quality into unhealthy levels for the more
sensitive groups (PM 2.5 AQI >100). This plume currently stretches down
into a good portion of central and Eastern Kansas and down into far
northern Oklahoma. South to southeast surface winds no greater than
10-20 MPH this afternoon and tonight should continue to feed smoke
back into the area through much of Saturday. Since AQI 2.5PM values
(particulate mater) rose above 40 ug/m^3 areawide this afternoon,
confidence increased enough to extended and expand the Air Quality
Alert for all of our Nebraska areas through 5PM Saturday. Please
refer to the Alert statement for more information.

Besides the smoke, precipitation chances remain fairly minimal this
afternoon and evening. A few storms, however, should still fire
across the High Plains & Eastern Rockies regions this afternoon and
evening. These storms will move east through the evening/night,
potentially landing into a few of our western to central parts of
the area late tonight. Any storms that does keep its integrity
together shouln`t make it to our western edge before midnight.
Severe weather is not expected from these storms as instability as
well as lapse rates are not expected to be too favorable at this
time of night. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds could still be present
in a few of the more stronger storms. In general, storm coverage
should be on the more minimal side of things as this cluster of
storms are expected to be more "showery" than anything else. PoPs as
result have been capped at 30% given their the expected scattered to
isolated coverage of storms.


     Saturday through Thursday....


Pleasant temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend
and Monday with highs staying between the mid 70s and mid 80s.
Despite broad weak southerlies (usually a warm air advecting
pattern), mostly clouds skies should block out the sun enough to
limit afternoon warming. In addition, a few showers/storms may also
help to limit the heat to a degree, especially for Sunday.

Some PV advection in the upper-levels will help lead to some mid to
upper level height falls, helping to establish a few shortwave
disturbances. These disturbances should pass one after another across
the Central Plains. A few storms should be able to initialize across a
few western areas Saturday night (40-50% chances), becoming
widespread and scattered during the morning and daytime Sunday (15-
30% chances). A few additional storms and showers may redevelop
Sunday night (20-40% chances).

The severe potential with these storms should be fairly limited as
seasonably cooler temperatures limit the afternoon instability and
low to mid level lapse rates to a degree. Shear is also not expected
to be all that significant as the upper level flow is remains more
stagnant than active. The low-level jet could however, help
initialize storms, supporting them though the night.

Precipitation chances beyond Sunday night look questionable with a
building ridge providing negative (anti-cyclonic) vorticity
advection and general sinking motion over the area for the first
half of next week. Temperatures will once again rebound upwards as
this dome of higher pressure expands in from the desert southwest.
Wind directions will predominantly stay out of the south to southeast
with more breaks in the cloud coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Areas of smoke are forecast to persist tonight through the
daytime Saturday, but expect VSBYs to remain mainly VFR to
perhaps high- end MVFR.

Convection W of the terminals should continue to gradually
weaken as it shifts E. However, this activity has generated it`s
own mid level low pressure (MCV), so think at least some of the
showers/storms could make it into the terminal space, mainly
between 08-12Z. Coverage should be iso-scat, so kept at PROB30s
for now. Mid to high clouds should gradually clear out mid to
late AM behind the departing wave. Winds will generally be ESE
to SE through the period, 7-10kt through Sat AM and again Sat
night, but 9-14kt Sat aftn. Confidence: Medium.

We`re in a "wash, rinse, repeat" type of pattern...so could once
again be dealing with decaying convection trying to move in from
the W Sat night, but best chances look to be after 06Z Sun.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies