424
FXUS63 KGID 300816
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
316 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Highs in the 90s to low 100s today with heat index values in
   the low 100s across southeastern portions of the area.

- Scattered thunderstorms move into the area during the late
  evening-overnight hours. Some of these storms could be
  strong-marginally severe.

- Seasonably warm temperatures continue through next weekend
  with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

- Off and on thunderstorm chances mainly during the evening-
  overnight hours each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms is currently centered over
Sherman/Valley/Howard/Greeley counties. This cluster of storms is
expected to continue to push east/northeast across the area this
morning, exiting eastern portions of the area around sunrise. Rain
accumulations within this cluster will generally be 0.15-0.5". Skies
clear this morning resulting in another hot day across the area as
the area sits under southwesterly flow aloft. Highs today climb into
the 90s to 100s, warmest across north central Kansas. Heat index
values will range from the low 90s to low 100s, warmest across
southeastern portions of the area. While forecast heat indices fall
shy of official heat advisory criteria, it will be unpleasant for
those with outdoor activities nonetheless.

Scattered thunderstorms that develop over eastern CO are expected to
move into west/southwestern portions of the area during the late
evening-overnight hours. CAPE and shear are sufficient for these
storms to be strong-severe across western portions of the area.
Storms will gradually weaken as they move east across the area
overnight. The main concern with strong-severe storms will be 60mph
wind gusts and small hail.

Rain departs the area around sunrise on Monday as a front stalls out
over the area. North of the front highs will be in the upper 80s,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s south of the front. The overall
hottest weather looks to impact mainly south/southeastern portions
of the area. Capping aloft should prevent thunderstorm development
along the front during the late afternoon-evening hours. This is
reflected well in CAM guidance which keeps the area thunderstorm
free. If a storm were to form, CAPE around 2000 J/Kg and 35-40kts of
shear would support severe thunderstorms. Scattered-isolated storms
are possible Monday night across northwestern portions of the area
as storms move in from the west. Southwesterly flow remains in place
through the end of the forecast period. In this regime, highs will
generally be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Off and on storm chances
are possible, mainly during the evening-overnight hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A few morning showers impacted areas mainly east of Highway 281
this morning but have since pushed east with mostly sunny skies
and warm temperatures encompassing the entire forecast area. An
upper level disturbance in southwesterly flow aloft could impact
portions of the local area late this evening and into the
overnight hours, and increased pops some for tonight to put in
better agreement with the 18Z HRRR/other guidance. While severe
weather is not likely, these high based storms will be capable
of producing gusty winds, and the marginal risk for severe
weather was expanded to include areas mainly west of Highway 283
tonight. If realized, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be
possible with the strongest storms. Otherwise, these storms
should be on the weakening trend as they cross the local area
overnight, bringing mainly scattered light precipitation to
parts of the local area.

For Sunday, another hot afternoon is in store for the local area
as the ridge of upper level high pressure persists across the
central/southern plains and southwesterly flow continues aloft.
This will once again result in afternoon heat index values
climbing to near - or slightly above 100 - especially across our
Kansas counties. At the same time, another round of nocturnal
convection will be possible, but the chance for severe or
widespread thunderstorms is not likely Sunday night. In fact,
this general weather pattern of above normal temperatures and
occasional, mainly small chances for thunderstorms is
anticipated to continue through much of next week with a return
to more seasonal/cooler temperatures not hinted at in ensemble
guidance until possibly the 2nd week of September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few thunderstorms will be in and around the KEAR vicinity
between 6-9z and in the KGRI vicinity between 7-10z. A wind
shift, soon to arrive with the scattered storms, will briefly
shift wind directions to the northwest with speeds temporarily
increasing to 15-20kts. Wind speeds through the rest of the
night will be expected to decrease and become more
southwesterly and later light and variable by late Sunday
morning.

Ongoing LLWS will be around KEAR through around 11z and around
KGRI through around 13z. VFR conditions are likely to maintain
(80%) through the period with cloud bases potentially falling to as
low as 12,000-15,000ft through the overnight and early Sunday
morning hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump