015
FXUS63 KGID 181127
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 30-45mph behind a cold frontal passage today.

- Frost/Freeze possible across much of the area tonight/Sunday morning.
  A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory are in effect tonight.

- Another round of gusty northwest winds arrives on Monday
  behind a cold front.

- Near-slightly above normal temperatures expected Monday
  onwards. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Today and Sunday...

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 40s and 50s,
under mostly clear skies. Aloft, a trough over Montana will dive
into the Plains/Midwest today. A cold front associated with the
upper level trough, currently sits near the Nebraska-South
Dakota border. The cold front will push through most of the
forecast area this morning, reaching far southeastern portions
of the area this afternoon. Winds quickly increase behind the
cold frontal passage, resulting in a windy afternoon for the
forecast area. Widespread northwest winds gusting 30-40mph are
expected, with localized areas gusting up to 45mph. A few
scattered showers are possible (10-20%) behind the cold frontal
passage, mainly across northeastern portions of the area. Drier
air near the surface may limit how much rain is able to reach
the surface, so limited PoPs to sprinkles outside of a line from
Ord to York. Cooler air filters in behind the cold front,
limiting daytime heating. Highs will range from the upper 50s in
the northwest to the low 70s in the southeast.

Winds decrease this evening as a high pressure system slides over
the area. A cooler airmass will be in place over the area, as skies
clear tonight allowing for a rapid drop in temperatures overnight
and the first chance for frost this season. In collaboration with
neighboring offices, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze
Warning where temperatures below freezing and widespread frost is
most likely (northwest). A Frost Advisory was issued for central
portions of the area where at least patchy frost appears possible.
The biggest limiting factor on frost will be wind, which may remain
just strong enough (5-10mph) to keep frost development isolated for
areas in the Advisory.

The high pressure system will shift to the southeast Sunday morning,
as warmer, southwesterly flow returns to the area. Despite the cool
start to the day, the dry airmass and southerly winds will allow
temperatures to climb towards their climatological normals, in
the mid-upper 60s. While winds will be noticeably lighter than
Today/Saturday, breezy winds are expected at times during the
afternoon, gusting 20-25mph. Lows in the 40s are forecast Sunday
night.

Monday...

The next shortwave trough dives into the Plains on Monday, pushing
another cold front through the area. Similar to Saturday, the cold
front moves most of the area during the morning hours, with gusty
northerly winds expected behind the cold frontal passage. Highs on
Monday will range from the low 60s (north) to low 70s. Northerly
winds gusting 30-40mph are expected behind the front, strongest
during the afternoon. Lows will sink into the mid 30s to low 40s
Monday night.

Tuesday Onwards...

Northwesterly flow sets up over the area for the middle of next
week. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 60s/70s,
and lows in the upper 30s/40s. An upper level low moving out of
Colorado brings the next chance for precipitation to the area on
Thursday, though any chances look to be limited to southern portions
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Winds quickly
increase behind a cold frontal passage this morning. Sustained
winds of 20-25kts and gusts of 30-35kts are expected throughout
the afternoon hours behind the front. Winds steadily decrease
around sunset, as gusts fall below 15kts after 03z.

Mid level clouds move in with the cold frontal passage. Some low
clouds (below 5000ft) are possible during the afternoon, but
ceilings will stay above MVFR. Skies clear after sunset.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ041-047>049-062>064-074>076-083>085.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005-006-017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis