509
FXUS63 KGID 162023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
223 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some brief showers may cross through Central Nebraska between
  6PM and midnight Monday evening (20-40% chance). At most, a
  few areas could receive a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch
  of moisture. Areas near and south of the state line will
  likely remain completely dry.

- Highs start between the mid 50s to low 70s Monday (warmest to
  the south) and will bounce around the 50s to mid 60s through
  Thursday. The coldest day of the week will likely occur Friday
  (highs between the mid 40s to low 50s)

- Precipitation chances towards the end of the week (mainly
  Thursday night and Friday) are up to 25-45% with the greatest
  potential lying towards the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025


Tonight through Wednesday...

A low currently situated across Nevada today will soon be on track to
swing over into Nebraska around Monday evening. The approach of this
wave will stir up some banded precipitation primarily across South
Dakota, Southern Minnesota and Iowa to name a few places. Impacts to
the local area precipitation wise should be more on the minimal side
of things, although a few showers across Central Nebraska Monday
evening/night remain as a possibility (20-40% chances).

The latest short-term and high-res guidance (primarily the HRRR and
RAP models) continues to highlight some showers becoming wrapped
around the surface low Monday evening. These showers, would pass
from west to east across a few portions of Central Nebraska as the
surface low pulls away Monday evening. The latest 18z model guidance
places a cluster of these showers near and just north of the I-80
corridor between primarily 6PM and midnight. Most of these showers
should be brief, depositing at most a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of moisture. Areas closer to and south of the state line will
likely be missed altogether (<15% chance).

Besides the limited precipitation chances Monday evening, southerly
winds between 10-20MPH on Monday will lighten some overnight,
swinging clockwise and around Tuesday as the low moves east and
away. Light winds will finally settle back to a more consistent
southeasterly direction for Wednesday.

Highs for Monday will offer a wide spread from north to south with
temperatures up to the mid 50s to low 60s north of I-80 and up to
the mid 60s to low 70s south of the state line. Highs for Tuesday
will range the 50s to low 60s, warming back a few degrees for
Wednesday (upper 50s to mid 60s).


Thursday and Beyond...

Our main focus in the long range forecast revolves around how a
shortwave trough will impact the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The 12z
GFS/ECMWF models runs both project this disturbance to deepen a
surface low across the TX/OK/KS/CO borders on Thursday. This mid-
latitude cyclone will then be expected to eject northeastward across
Central and Eastern Kansas during the day Friday, following along
with the upper jet-level flow.

The outskirts of this potential system`s precipitation bands could
arrive up into North Central Nebraska as early as Thursday, though
the latest guidance has been several hours slower with the
precipitation onset timing. We will be curious to see if this
slowing trend continues. As our forecast currently stands, the
overall best chances for precipitation lie Thursday night into
Friday (25-45% chances) with the best chances concentrated towards
the south.

Given the current projected track of the system, a large
north to south precipitation gradient is due to set up across our
area where places in the north (Central Nebraska) could easily fall
shy of the forecast with a few places towards the south (North
Central Kansas) potentially overachieving our early forecasted
precipitation amounts (currently 0.1-0.5"). Note that given this
system being at least four days out, confidence can easily shift in
either direction (the most recent shift has been a slight decrease
in intensity). Given potentially near freezing temperatures late
Thursday night, a few light snow could be mixed into this system on
its furthest northern side, especially if timing lags into Friday
night (cooler temperatures overnight). No snow accumulation is
expected at this time.

Beyond the precipitation chances, Temperates near the end of the week
will dip a few degrees, mainly Friday as highs transition from the
mid 50s to low 60s Thursday to the mid 40s to low 50s Friday.
Overcast skies with northerly winds advecting in cooler air from the
north would be the main contributers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through 10z Monday.
Increasing cloud coverage early Monday morning will likely
contribute to dropping ceilings between 10-14z. Cloud bases
after 14z will push down into low end MVFR conditions (60%
chance). In addition, 30-40kts of southerly LLWS look probable
between 6-15z Monday. Winds at the surface will retain a
southeasterly orientation across the next 24 hours with winds
between 10-15kts. A few gusts up to 25kts will be possible
during the day Monday (after 12z).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump