659
FXUS63 KGID 242338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
538 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy on Tuesday. Sustained northwesterly winds of 25 to
  40 MPH are expected with gusts over 55 MPH possible mainly
  north of Highway 6. A high wind watch is now in effect for
  parts of the area Tuesday.

- Progressively cooler temperatures are expected through the end
  of the week, with high temperatures possibly not climbing
  above freezing by Sunday (and possibly for several days
  thereafter). The normal high temperature for late November is
  in the mid 40s.

- Accumulating snow is possible Friday-Monday, but confidence is
  low in specific details and a significant snowfall appears
  unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lots of clouds lingered across the area today, rotating around
the area of low pressure crossing southern Kansas this
afternoon. Expect a period of at least partial clearing across
the area overnight as this system tracks further east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This clearing, combined
with light winds to start the night, could allow for the
redevelopment of some patchy fog late this evening and into the
overnight hours, but should be quickly scoured and pushed east
as winds start to pick up pre-dawn. The latest few runs of the
HRRR indicate some patchy dense fog mainly east of Highway 281
overnight, but did not buy into this completely (partly due to
slight westerly component of winds) and only included some
patchy fog mention in the official forecast that should be
completely gone by daybreak.

As the aforementioned cold front works its way across the tri-
cities area around daybreak, expect winds to start to crank up
across the region, with sustained winds of 25 MPH to 40 MPH
expected by midday. 18Z HRRR continues to indicate gusts of
40-50 KTS across areas generally along and north of Highway 6
during the late morning through afternoon hours, and as a
result, would not be surprised to see several gusts over 55 MPH
by the end of the day. As a result, went ahead and issued a high
wind watch for this area from 6 AM to 6 PM. In addition to the
strong winds, expect decent cold air advection through the day,
and for temperatures tomorrow afternoon to struggle to climb
into the 40s, or about 10 to possibly 15 degrees below this
afternoons highs, which combined with the strong winds, will
make it feel quite blustery across the area.

Behind this cold front, expect a general pattern shift for
several days as progressive northwesterly flow will continue
across the center of the country through the end of the week.
This will result in a generally cool weather pattern, with
temperatures remaining well below normal for an extended period
of time. Could also see multiple, quick passing, upper level
disturbances that bring small chances of snow to the region as
early as Friday afternoon, with the better signals coming late
in the weekend. The current forecast suggests the potential for
some light accumulations through Sunday, with a better chance
for a potentially more significant system over the middle of
next week as an upper level low lifts out of the southwest and
into the plains. Plenty of model divergence over this period,
but in general, expect colder temps and small chances for light
snow Friday afternoon through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Can`t rule out a couple hours here at the start of the period of
brief MVFR ceilings...but the overall trend of cloud cover is
expected to improve this evening. Closer to and after midnight,
will have to watch the potential for some light fog/brief
lowered ceilings developing ahead of the approaching cold
front...confidence is low, models/guidance vary with whether or
not things drop below VFR. The timing of the surface cold front
looks to be around 11Z...ushering in a strong switch to
northwesterly winds and potential for LLWS at both sites. Gusts
over 30 MPH are expected by sunrise...and by late morning
through the end of this TAF period, northwesterly gusts closer
to (potentially over at times) 45-50 MPH will be possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP