407
FXUS63 KGID 291151
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
551 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect until 3PM today for
  counties mainly along and north of HWY-6.

- Snow accumulations of a trace up to 1" will be possible for a
  vast majority of the area with amounts increasing up to 2-3"
  towards the furthest northeastern portions of the area this
  morning.

- Wind gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon could cause a few
  areas of blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities and
  challenging travel conditions.

- Another wave of light snow looks more favorable for Monday
  morning (20-60% chances and greatest towards the south),
  potentially depositing up to 1-2" more inches of snow across a
  handful of locations. Mixed precipitation is not expected
  with this system.

- Lows will range the single digits to teens tonight and Sunday
  night. Wind chill values, especially tonight, could drop near
  and into the negative single digits.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025


The Main Story for Today:

As of early this morning, several bands of mixed precipitation have
sprung up all around, bringing at least a glaze of ice across a
majority of the area. Though most precipitation bands have not quite
transitioned to snow yet (as of 2:30AM), low-level temperatures
continue to cool, bringing the inevitable closer to fruition.
Forecast snowfall amounts have generally come down some this morning
(closer to T-2" compared to the previous 1-3" as the total coverage
area of these precipitation bands seems to be less expansive than
what models have been previously assuming.

The Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect for counties mainly
north of HWY-6 through 3PM from the mixture of the freezing rain and
accumulating snow later this morning. Though not all places may
receive a total of 3" of snowfall (normally Advisory Criteria), the
slick and icy roadways as well as the potential contribution of
blowing snow later this afternoon, could still create dangerous
driving conditions worthy of an advisory.

By the time everything is said and through, a majority of the area
(at least 90%) will of receive some snow (mainly a trace to just
over an inch) with places north and east of the Tri-Cities seeing
amounts up to 2-3". Once the snow accumulations taper off this
afternoon (clearing from from west to east between mainly 9AM and
2PM), blowing snow may be possible across areas that receive more
meaningful snow amounts. Winds gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon
should easily loft any non-compacted snow.


What`s Next?:

The current northerly winds blowing behind the low as it crosses
through Kansas will stick around through much of the day Sunday,
helping file in the even colder airmass through the weekend.
Temperatures as result will stay in the 20s to mid 30s this afternoon
and Sunday. Lows tonight will drop into the low single digits (for
our furthest northwestern areas) up to the teens (mainly north
central Kansas) with wind-chills near and just below zero degrees. A
similar story should return again Sunday night, though
temperatures/wind chills may stay a few degrees "warmer".

The other feature of note in the short-term will be the potential
impacts of a secondary sweep of light snow mainly on Monday morning.
Another disturbance is projected to eject out of the Rockies Sunday
night, quickly sweeping by southern Nebraska and mainly Central
Kansas. Early snowfall projections aim a corridor of 1-2" peak
snowfall amounts across areas near to just south of the state line.
Following today`s action, our forecast focus will narrow in on this
next system, fine-tuneing the details even more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

As mentioned in the key messages, the Winter Weather Advisory
was expanded to include a few more counties on the southern and
western side. Temperatures are slightly colder than expected and
though freezing temperatures have warmed as far north as the
Nebraska border, the tightening baroclinicity will be a focus
for some additional ice potential along the Highway 6 corridor.
Initially precipitation is very light such as drizzle, light
freezing drizzle or flurries...sort of what we are seeing now
across the area. That is expected to continue through the
evening but expand in coverage/intensity after 10 pm and
overnight with the upper level trough approaching. A steady
east/west band of precipitation will develop along/either side
of I-80 with the heaviest precipitation after 1 AM, with
precipitation on the south side starting as mixture of light
freezing rain/sleet. North of I-80 precipitation will largely
fall as snow but could have some mix initially. Farther south,
near the Kansas border and down into north central Kansas,
precipitation tonight will be mostly liquid in nature.
Temperatures to south will hold steady and only drop off very
late tonight.

Saturday will evolve from a messy mixture of precipitation
early in the morning, to very windy and cold conditions, then to
eventually some clearing later in the day. Whatever mixture of
precipitation is ongoing early will quickly changeover as a
surge of cold air pushing in to the area as the surface low
wraps up to the southeast. Far southwest areas, such as Rooks
and Osborne counties, should see very little precipitation as a
dry slot impacts that area. Farther north, a 2-3 hour period of
precipitation will heaviest prior to 9 AM but then should
quickly wrap up by early afternoon. As this happens, strong
northwest winds will push across the area between 8 and 10 AM
gusting over 40 mph and resulting blowing snow, reducing
visibility and some drifting snow in areas where 2 to 3 inches
of snow falls. The wind will last all afternoon and into the
evening hours and drop off to under 30 mph gusts after 10 pm
Saturday. Have kept some blowing snow in the forecast due to
wind in eastern through the evening. Temperatures will go
nowhere Saturday and either hold steady or fall some through the
day. Single digit wind chills in the afternoon will turn to
below zero wind chills for some areas Saturday night. This is
certainly the coldest couple days of the your cold weather
season.

Sunday is a dry day, but cold with passing clouds. Fortunately
winds will drop off but with highs in the 20s, temperatures will
be 20 degrees or more below normal.

A quick moving wave will slip across the area later Sunday night
and Monday morning. Good model consistency that light snow will
develop as the wave passes from west-to-east, centered on
Monday morning. Precipitation will be light, but the steady,
fluffy nature of the snow could easily add up to an inch or two.
Locations between I-80 and I-70 are favored at this time for
the accumulating snow. Winds will be light thankfully. However,
the timing of the snow may cause some minor morning commute
impacts.

The rest week remains chilly with highs in the 30s to lower 40s
as the region sits on the west of the large trough funneling
cold air from the north. No significant precipitation is in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Freezing rain has recently transitioned over to light snow.
Accumulating snow of up to 1-2" will be possible through the
morning hours. Between 9AM and 12PM, snow should gradually taper
off, likely at KEAR before KGRI. Though accumulating snow is
expected to end by the afternoon, blowing snow remains a
potential into the afternoon hours as north to northwesterly
winds gust as high as 30-40kts. Ceilings, currently low-end
MVFR and IFR, are expected to improve in time through the
morning / early afternoon hours as well as visibilities to a
degree. Winds will lighten between 22-3z back to below 10kts by
6z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-073>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Stump