525
FXUS63 KGID 131044
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
444 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with record
  high temperatures looking like a sure bet for Friday
  afternoon.

- Precipitation chances return on Monday with a small chance for
  a rain/snow mix Monday morning north of I-80, but no
  accumulation is expected and overall precipitation amounts
  look light (0.10" to 0.25")

- Seasonably cool weather with additional small precip chances
  next week as a more active weather pattern returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Another quiet night across the local area with all signs
pointing to another mild day across the local area. A few more
clouds can be seen on satellite this morning, which so far have
helped overnight temps remain mostly in the 40s, although there
remains a few more hours for temps to drop into the upper 30s by
daybreak. With the average low for November 13th right around
30, this will be yet another very mild start to the day.

With high pressure in control of the weather pattern aloft and
light surface winds thanks to a weak pressure gradient, upped
afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees for the next 2
afternoons as we have been overachieving on high temperatures
the last 2 days - something that is probably welcome to most
for mid-November! With the updated changes, Fridays temperature
records look like a sure bet, with 80 degrees definitely
possible in spots (currently we have 81 in the forecast for
Grand Island and 78 for Hastings - both of which would easily
surpass the prior records of 71 (2001,1990) and 74 (1990),
respectively).

The next cold front is then expected to cross the area on
Saturday, with the backside of the front not expected to reach
the KS/NE state line until evening. As a result, while Saturday
will be a bit cooler (60s to near 70), it will still be a decent
day with the truly cooler weather not reaching the area until
Sunday and eventually Monday. At the same time, an upper level
low across the southwest will eventually lift into the plains on
Monday bring a return to at least the chance for some unsettled
weather Monday. As mentioned the past few days, rain will be
most favored with this system, although a handful of GFS
ensemble members are now pointing to a chance for snow. This is
likely a result of that upper low tracking a bit further south
in the GFS than the EC, and as a consequence, the blended model
forecast now has a mix of rain/snow for areas north of I-80
Monday morning. While this is not out of the realm of
possibility, think the probability is low, and definitely no
accumulating snow is anticipated as low temperatures are
marginal for snow (mid 30s) and any flakes should rapidly
switch to all rain early in the day.

While this first system should be a quick passing one, it will
open the door to a more active and cooler weather pattern that
will bring additional chances for precip mid-week and again the
following weekend, with slightly below normal temperatures
(afternoon highs in the 40s) likely prevailing for a prolonged
period of time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some
passing high clouds and winds generally less than 10 KTs
throughout. Latest model data and VWP indicating a very weak
LLJ is across the area late tonight, but main impact will be to
keep surface winds steady out of the south overnight as LLWS is
too marginal to mention in TAFs. For Thursday...light surface
winds will continue thanks to a weak surface pressure gradient
along with ample high level cloud cover having minimal impacts
at either terminal.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR