966
FXUS63 KGID 311043
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than perhaps a few spotty light showers/sprinkles mainly
  north of I-80 this morning, today kicks off what should be
  four-straight days of effectively "guaranteed dry" weather
  lasting through Monday.

- By late-July/mid-summer standards, today will be quite breezy
  (some will say windy)...with north winds commonly sustained
  15-25+ MPH/gusts 25-35+ MPH.

- Those same north winds will usher in somewhat drier/less humid
  air over the next few days, as we MERCIFULLY wave goodbye to
  our recent stretch of dewpoints well into the 70s (and even
  low 80s!)...with dewpoints most of the next several days
  topping out "only" 60s, and perhaps even dropping into the 50s
  especially in western counties Sunday-Monday.

- Temperature-wise: Readings these next several days will
  generally average "near-normal" for late-July/early-August
  with most places topping out somewhere mid 80s-low 90s, and
  overnight lows mainly 60s. A few of the cooler days with highs
  only low-80s at most (mainly north) look to be today and
  Wednesday, while one of the warmer days with more of the area
  into low-mid 90s looks to be Monday.

- Precip-wise: Following our upcoming dry stretch, intermittent
  chances for showers/thunderstorms re-enter the picture Tues-
  Thurs. Far too soon to decipher details, but an early glance
  at instability/shear suggests at least limited severe
  potential.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- Honestly, no changes of note really stand out. In the "minor
  details" department, high temps through Monday were trended up
  very slightly from previous (a few degrees at most), while
  highs for Wednesday actually came down 2-4 degrees.

- From a big picture/upper air perspective: Our dry weather
  through Monday will be driven by our Central Plains region
  residing under benign northerly flow aloft...directed between
  a large-scale ridge/high centered over the Desert
  Southwest...and a large-scale trough/low dominating the
  eastern half of the nation. By Tuesday into mid-week, our
  return of rain/thunderstorm chances is driven by a shortwave
  trough tracking across southern Canada and the northern tier
  of the U.S...effectively "flattening" the highly amplified
  pattern and placing our region back under quasi-zonal
  (generally westerly) flow aloft...and back in the path of
  periodic disturbances passing through.


-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER/TERM NEXT 48 HOURS (through
 Sat night/early Sun AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
As was expected, a fairly expansive/cohesive line of
thunderstorms tracked across the majority of our forecast area
(CWA) from northwest-to-southeast mainly between 730 PM-1 AM.
Fortunately, if anything this convection (thankfully)
"underperformed" in terms of severe weather (namely severe wind)
potential, with the vast majority of measured gusts on many
dozen area stations topping out no higher than 40-55 MPH. There
were only a handful of severe-criteria 58+ MPH gusts...two of
which occurred in our far northern/western counties at
Ord/Lexington airports. It was honestly a "best of both worlds"
outcome, with the limited severe weather AND MOST (not all)
affected counties receiving fairly widespread rainfall in the
0.50-1.50" range. By far the lowest rain totals fell within
counties along/south of the KS border where storms were more
spotty or in some places absent altogether.

Since the "main event" departed our far southeast counties
around 1 AM, the vast majority of the CWA has been dry. However,
a smattering of pesky showers/weak thunderstorms have developed
mainly along/south of the state line, with current radar showing
what might be the last of this activity for the morning in our
CWA tracking through the Jewell/Mitchell counties area.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm a well-defined
shortwave trough tracking east-southeast and centered from
northern NE into central MN. At the surface, the primary low
pressure center (around 1008 millibars) is over the SD/MN/IA
border area, with a trailing cold front extending down across
our CWA...marked by a shift to still-light, but evident west-
northwest breezes. Cloud-wise, while skies have cleared over
much of our area in the wake of departing convection, several
batches of lower stratus clouds are dropping southward into our
CWA out of northern NE. While some patchy (and mainly light) fog
is certainly possible yet this morning here or there, there is
little doubt that the arrival of somewhat drier air and light-
but-steady northwest breezes should "save" us from any
widespread fog issues. Low temps on track to bottom out mainly
66-71 degrees.


- TODAY:
Starting with the highest-confidence feature: today will be
quite breezy (honestly somewhat windy) by late-July standards.
In the wake of the front, much of the day will feature sustained
north-northwest winds commonly 15-25+ MPH/gusts 25-35+
MPH...overall strongest over the northeast 1/2 of our CWA. On a
positive note, these same north winds will "tame down" our
recently very humid/soupy airmass. While not truly "refreshing"
by any means, dewpoints today will average mid-upper 60s most
places...certainly lower than lately. Of somewhat lower
confidence are cloud cover trends, resultant temperatures and an
outside shot at some very spotty light shower/sprinkle activity.
For sure, at least transient/partial batches of low stratus will
drop southward across much of our CWA especially this
morning...and probably lingering into the afternoon especially
far north and/or east. While the vast majority of shower
activity should focus at least slightly northeast of our CWA
today in closer proximity to the heart of the mid-level
low/trough tracking southeastward into IA...a few models at
least hint that a few sprinkles could catch mainly our far
northern counties mainly this morning...so have gone with a
"slight chance of sprinkles" mainly north of Neb Highway 92.
High temps will obviously depend to some degree on how
efficiently skies clear this afternoon (again general
expectation is more clouds north/east and more sun south/west),
but if anything have slightly nudged up highs...ranging from
mainly 81-85 in our northeast half...to 84-90 in our southwest
half (any low 90s mainly confined to Furnas/Phillips/Rooks/Osborne.


- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
As the upper low departs farther southeast to along the IL/MO
border by sunrise Saturday, our region is looking at a quiet/dry
night that should in theory by clear/mostly clear...but there
are hints of some limited/random patches of low stratus still
passing southward here or there. At the surface, a high pressure
axis will slide down into mainly western NE as the night wears
on. In turn, while the seasonably-strong daytime winds will
quickly subside this evening, they will not go "truly calm"
either, with northwesterly speeds most of the night 5-10 MPH.
These light-but-steady breezes should keep fog from being much
of an issue (and it`s not in our official forecast), but
probably cannot rule out some patchy/mainly light fog here or
there especially very late in the night. Temp-wise, the lower
dewpoints will allow our area to have the coolest /most
comfortable night in over a week...lows aimed 59-63 most places.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Although still a touch breezy (not as windy as today), this
simply looks like a sunny, almost guaranteed dry and (for most
folks) a downright pleasant first day of August. Northerly winds
will average sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 (maybe 25 MPH
mainly far east). Dewpoints will lower another notch, mixing
down into the upper 50s-low 60s (lowest west). High temps were
nudged up very slightly, but still only 83-87 most places and
maybe tagging 90 in far southwest counties
(Furnas/Phillips/Rooks).

Saturday night, continued dry as light breezes generally flip
around from northerly to southerly with time. Low temps very
similar to perhaps very slightly cooler than Friday night, but
most places again aimed a few degrees either side of 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Tonight...

Steady southerly winds gusting as high as 20MPH early this afternoon
have helped advect in a warmer and more humid airmass today (70s to
low 80s dewpoints). Despite the excessive cloud coverage for most of
the day so far, temperatures still look to remain mostly on track to
reach the mid 80s to low 90s for much of central Nebraska.
Temperatures across some north central Kansas locations and far
southwest Nebraska areas may peak as high as the mid to upper 90s
today. The main story, however, will be of the potential for severe
weather this evening.

An upper-level shortwave trough ejecting out from eastern
Colorado/Wyoming this afternoon has lead to some mid-level pressure
falls as well as some vorticity and cold air advection across the
region. The warming temperatures at the surface paired with cooling
aloft has helped increase instability/buoyancy (up to 2,000-
3,500J/kg of MUCAPE). A 1004mb surface low deepening across central
Nebraska this evening will help steer frontogenesis across central
Nebraska and central Kansas. A cold front emerging from this process
will in turn help develop a cluster of storms. Storms organizing
into a line this afternoon, will be expected to drive southeast
through much of the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM tonight. As of
2PM today, this line of storms looks to be already taking shape in
cherry county in Nebraska based on the latest radar reflectivity
returns and the agitated cumulus observed on satellite.

A few of these storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with damaging winds being the primary concern. Given the
presence of modest deep layer shear (25-40MPH) with sufficient
instability and moisture, the base ingredients will be met for
severe storm characteristics. Though hail up to the size of quarters may
still be possible within a few of the stronger/taller storms, the
high freezing levels with more unfavorable mid-level lapse rates (5-
6C/km), should generally keep the hail threat more limited tonight.
In addition, though heavy downpours will be expected within several
of these storms (1.5-2" PWATS), given their fairly progressive
nature, the overall flooding threat should remain limited. The Storm
Prediction Center now includes the full area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather.


Friday through Wednesday...

Following the exit of the storms tonight, the forecast remains dry
until Tuesday night (20-50% chances for central Nebraska). This
drier pattern will come as southwest U.S. ridging expands northeast
into the Central Plains over the weekend. The surface low pulling
east and away on Friday will leave behind gusty northerly winds that
may peak as high as 30-45MPH during the afternoon. Meanwhile, drier
and relatively "cooler" temperatures with keep highs peaking in the
80s for both Friday and Saturday. Higher pressure eventually
settling back in over the weekend will lighten winds with
directions becoming southerly again by Sunday. The start of the new
week will bring warming temperatures once more with highs returning
back to the mid 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through MOST of the
period, along with precipitation-free conditions. The main
issues/possible issues are:

1) The likelihood for at least a few (perhaps several?) hours
of sub-VFR ceiling this morning (medium-high confidence).

2) A rather breezy (arguably windy?) day by late-July standards,
with especially the afternoon featuring northerly gusts up
around 30KT (very high confidence).

- Sub-VFR ceiling/potential:
Right out of the gate early this morning, at least transient
batches of low stratus (mainly MVFR but perhaps briefly IFR) are
working southward across/into the area. As a result, confidence
has increased in at least a few (if not several) hours of sub-
VFR ceiling, and and a result have a mix of TEMPO/prevailing
MVFR through 18Z (again though, these low ceilings may not
necessarily be in place this entire time). By 18Z and beyond,
confidence is reasonably-high in a return to VFR, although at
least SCT/FEW clouds could linger at MVFR levels into early
this evening before more widespread clearing overnight. Kept
prevailing visibility VFR throughout the period, but probably
cannot completely rule out brief/transient MVFR in light fog
especially late in the period Saturday morning.

- Seasonably-strong wind details:
The daytime-early evening will be quite breezy by mid-summer
standards, with post-frontal northerly winds (especially after
14Z) prevailing 20+KT sustained/gusts 25-30KT. Speeds will
steadily drop off this evening into early Saturday morning,
with most of the night prevailing no more than 5-8KT from the
north-northwest.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch