492
FXUS63 KGID 232349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight across portions of
  the region. Localized areas of dense fog cannot be ruled out.

- A mid-week storm system may bring precipitation to Kansas and
  Nebraska, with snow not out of the question.

- A substantial cool down is expected for the latter half of the
  week, with highs in the 30s in many areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Today`s mild temperatures are something to be thankful for as we
look at the forecast for the week ahead. Expect highs this afternoon
to top out in the 50s and 60s. Winds will decrease this evening,
with some clearing of skies. With the cooling temperatures and
upslope winds, there is the potential for some fog development
overnight and into tomorrow morning. Some localized dense fog will
be possible for areas. Expect reductions to visibility with any fog
development.

Fog development may have a slight impact on how quickly we warm up
during the day Sunday. Southwest flow will be in place over the area
and clouds cover is expected to decrease west to east through the
day. Highs will range from the upper 40s toward Ord to the low 50s
through the I-80 corridor, and the mid to upper 50s for areas south.
Overnight lows will be primarily in the 20s with a few low 30s in
north central Kansas.

Heading into Monday, a closed upper low will be over Saskatchewan
and Manitoba, moving to the southeast. Cooler air will push into the
region with a shock to our temperatures. Highs will range from the
upper 30s in the north to the low 40s in the south. Overnight lows
will be in the teens and 20s. Wind chill values will be down into
the teens.

Wednesday and Thursday, an open wave will move into the region from
the west. This will bring cooler weather and a chance for some
winter precipitation to the region. Rain will be possible for areas
of Kansas, with snow possible in Nebraska during the afternoon. High
temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. As temperatures fall during
the evening and overnight hours, rain will switch over to snow. At
this time, it is too early to peg down amounts or p-type transition
times. A slight shift in the track of the system would have an
impact on p-type as would a slight deviation from the current
forecasted temperatures. With this being over the Thanksgiving
holiday, those with plans will want to keep an eye out for changes
in the forecast with this system.

Much cooler air moves in toward the end of the week, with highs in
the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The main concern over this TAF period will be the potential for
fog overnight and during the morning hours Sunday. Fog is
expected to develop to the west of the TAF sites as early as
around 06Z tonight, but model guidance indicates the most
likely impacts at KEAR and KGRI should be between 24/10Z and
24/16Z, with fog starting to dissipate from west to east staring
around 24/14Z...went with 1/2SM as the densest in the TAFs but
could end up being denser at times.

Winds will be light for most of the period, switching to the
southwest overnight, then northwest and finally to northerly
Sunday morning. Wind speeds will start to increase to 8-10 kts
late Sunday morning, then to 10-15 kts with a few gusts to 20
kts Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Hickford