246
FXUS63 KGID 202341
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temps (60-70s), limited precip chances
  (mainly 10-30%), and lots of clouds expected to start the work
  week.

- Increasing storm chances mid-week, with unsettled weather
  likely continuing into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Mostly cloudy skies, a bit of drizzle and cool temperatures
lingered across the local area today. An upper level low across
eastern Wyoming on Satellite is helping to trigger a few
thunderstorms across the high plains - which if model data is
correct, should mostly dissipate at they approach the area late
this evening as they move into a more stable environment.

Overnight, a few storms could cross areas mainly north of I-80,
closer to the center of the low, as it tracks east across the
central plains. If realized, the environment remains
unfavorable for strong or severe storms due to a lack of
instability, and any storms should remain isolated and on the
weaker side. Of secondary concern, there are some hints of fog
development across the area to start the day Monday with the
latest HRRR indicating some widely scattered dense fog. Given
the light northeasterly winds and minimal T/Td spread, cannot
rule out at least some patchy fog formation, and consequently
added fog to the forecast to start the day Monday.

While some small pops remain in the forecast for Monday, most of
the local area should remain dry behind the departing upper
level low, with these mostly dry conditions likely prevailing
through at least midday Wednesday, as weak ridging sets up
across the local area ahead of the next more notable
disturbance. While some small splotchy pops remain in the
forecast at times late Monday through Wednesday afternoon, model
signals for precip mid-week with this next disturbance have
really ramped up over the past 24 hours, with most of ensemble
members indicating a potentially very wet Wed/Thursday time
period. While surface temperatures remain on the cooler side of
climo and instability is on the lower side, could see some
embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, with
more showery and less widespread precip expected to end the week
and continue into next weekend.

Overall, a seasonably cool and occasionally unsettled period is
forecast to continue across the local area for much of the next
7-10 days, with lots of cloud cover and the potential for some
morning fog at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primary aviation impact tor KEAR/KGRI over the next 24
hours will be the potential for Fog tonight as well as low
(LIFT) ceilings. The deck of low-level stratus is unlikely to
lift any further tonight with bases maintaining under at least
MVFR classifications until Monday afternoon (after 18z, there is
a 40-60% chance for VFR ceilings {cloud bases still
3,000-6,000ft} at KEAR and 20-30% chance for KGRI). The
potential for IFR ceilings (80%+ chance) increase for KGRI after
3z and after 4z for KEAR. LIFR classifications are likely
across much of the 8-15z period.

Beyond the low cloud ceilings, fog formation could begin
between 7-10z with visibilities dropping as low as 1/2 to 2
miles between 11z and 14z. Fog lingering past 15z will be
unlikely.

Though there are a mix of scattered thunderstorms and showers
across western Nebraska this evening, it is uncertain how far
east these storms will make it before dissipating (not a lot of
model confidence). As result, the mention of a prevailing storm
or shower was not included in the TAF at this time. A few brief
showers may be possible across the night and through the first
half of the day Monday.

Winds will remain mostly light and out of a northerly directions
tonight. Gradually increasing winds Monday afternoon (up to
10-15kts) will coincide with northeast turning winds.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump