069
FXUS63 KGID 262028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers (possibly a few rumbles of thunder) continue
  this evening and tonight.

- Patchy fog Sunday morning.

- Low chance (20-40%) for thunderstorms Sunday evening and
  overnight. IF storms develop, a few could be severe with large
  hail and localized damaging wind.

- Thunderstorms development is expected to remain east of the
  area on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

As expected, today ended up as another cloudy and cooler-than-
normal day across the area. As of 3pm, there are still some
light rain showers near the Highway 281 corridor in Nebraska,
and these will continue to steadily move eastward and out of
the area this afternoon. There has not been any lightning
observed recently, but a few rumbles of thunder remain possible.


Clouds will hang around through tonight, and another round of
light, spotty showers is expected to move into the area from the
southwest tonight. Like today, additional rain amounts will be
meager...probably just a few hundredths of an inch...if you`re
lucky. In addition to the light rain, there near term models
(especially RAP/HRRR) is showing fog developing over roughly the
western half of the area as we move into Sunday morning.

Lingering fog, showers, and cloud cover may keep Sunday on the
cooler side as well, although it is expected to be warmer than
today, with most areas at least approaching the 70s.

The continued warm/moist advection on Sunday will lead to
increased instability by Sunday evening (on the order of 2-3000
j/kg MUCAPE). This, combined with around 40kts of deep-layer
shear, would be supportive of supercells and severe weather.
That being said, models continue to advertise that convection
will be very isolated, with most of the area remaining capped.
A few more storms could develop early Monday morning as the cold
front moves into the area, but even this is a relatively low
chance (20-40%). All told, many areas will remain completely dry
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

For Monday, models continue to indicate that the frontal timing
will be fast enough that any redevelopment will occur east of
the local forecast area. As such, the latest NBM has backed off
on PoPs even more, and most (if not all) of the area is expected
to remain dry. Breezy west-southwest winds should allow
temperatures to reach the upper 70s and low 80s in most spots.

Tuesday will be cooler (but dry) in the post-frontal airmass.
Temperatures then rebound to above-normal levels for the middle
to end of next week. More low-end chances for rain and
thunderstorms also return in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Spotty rain showers clear out this afternoon, with another round
of of showers expected Sunday morning.

Ceilings are expected to fall from west to east through the
afternoon and evening today. IFR or LIFR ceilings become likely
at EAR by by 22-00Z, and at GRI by around 04Z.

Reduced visibility is also possible tonight into Sunday
morning...especially at EAR...due to patchy fog.

Winds remain out of the southeast through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels