501
FXUS63 KGID 101114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry day expected today...can`t rule out some scattered showers
  later tonight in far NNW areas. Increasing cloud cover today,
  highs for most in the 70s.

- This weekend brings a couple chances for showers...mainly
  northern areas Sat night, focusing further SE with time Sun-
  Sun night. Overall confidence in the finer details is not
  high, chances remain low at 20 percent. Sunday is the overall
  warmest day, with highs climbing into the mid-80s.

- A cold front pushes south through the region Sunday-Sunday
  night, ushering a notably cooler start to the new work
  week...with highs on Monday and Tuesday in the 60s. Highs
  gradually climb back into the 70s for Wed-Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Currently...

Overall quiet conditions reign across the forecast area early
this morning. Upper air and satellite data showing west-
northwesterly flow in place across the region...with the main
ridge axis extending northward through the High Plains/Rockies,
while areas of low pressure can be seen spinning just off the
Pac NW coast, western Ontario and along the AL/GA/FL border
area. Energy associated with that disturbance over central
Canada has been helping push a weak surface frontal boundary
south into the area...winds are currently more on the
light/variable side, expected to become more northerly as the
night passes. Not expecting any precipitation across the
forecast area...any scattered weak showers/storms driven by an
increased low-level jet look to remain focused more over eastern
NE. There will continue to be the potential for some patchy fog
while these winds remain light/variable...can`t rule out some
spots where visibilities drop to less than one mile, but
models/guidance suggest they`d be short-lived and fleeting in
location.

Today and tonight...

No notable changes were made to the forecast through tonight,
with the majority (potentially all) of the forecast area
looking to remain dry. In the upper levels, models are in good
agreement not showing any significant changes...but the main
ridge axis will be shifting further east onto the Plains with
time, mainly driven by that large low pressure system pushing
onto the West Coast. The daytime hours today are expected to be
dry...with any chances for precipitation coming late tonight-
early Sat AM. With the upper level ridge axis sliding east, flow
turns more west-southwesterly with time...and models show the
potential for a piece of shortwave energy sliding up through the
NE Sandhills into central SD. There are still some differences
between models with whether or not we see any activity at
all...but enough clip NNWrn portions of the area that couldn`t
remove the 20 percent chances from the forecast.

Expecting mostly clear skies to start the day...with mid-upper
level clouds on the increase from west to east through the
day, by late afternoon skies are expected to be partly-mostly
cloudy. At the surface, the main frontal boundary (driven more
by wind/dewpoint change than temperature) continues to sink
south of the forecast area, driven by high pressure building
into the Dakotas. Expecting the currently light/variable winds
to turn more northerly though tonight, then become more easterly
by midday-early afternoon. Speeds increase a bit, but still
looking only at around 10-15 MPH. Following dewpoints on
Thursday in the 50s-60s, values today behind that boundary look
to be more in the 40s-50s...with high temperatures topping out
in the mid 70s-low 80s...so outside of the increasing clouds,
overall not a bad day.

This weekend...

Models are in pretty good agreement showing the upper level
pattern becoming more solidly southwesterly as we get into the
upcoming weekend...as larger scale troughing takes over the
western CONUS, shoving whats left of the ridging further east of
the forecast area. Overall, the forecast remains on the dry
side...whatever spotty activity happens to linger into early Sat
AM should quickly slide off to the NE...then could be a similar
story Sat evening-night, with another embedded shortwave
disturbance potentially clipping far northern portions with some
scattered activity. Models again vary with just how much/if any
precip actually impacts the forecast area...so precipitation
chances remain low at 20 percent. Not a lot of change in highs
for Saturday, with mid 70s-low 80s expected. Breezy conditions
are expected for Saturday, with the pressure gradient tightening
up across the area between deepening low pressure over the High
Plains and broad high pressure over eastern Canada through the
Great Lakes/Midwest regions. SSErly winds gusting around 25-35
MPH are not out of the question. Dewpoints in the 50s- 60s look
to keep relative humidity values during the afternoon hours int
he 40-60 percent range...well above critical levels of/below 20
percent.

Sunday is still forecast to be the overall warmest day, thanks
to continued increased southerly flow and warmer air/mixing
ahead of an approaching cold front. Models showing a stronger
upper level shortwave disturbance sliding northeast through the
Nrn Rockies into central Canada through the day-overnight hours
on Sunday...which will be pushing a stronger surface cold front
south through the Central Plains. Still some differences to iron
out with the timing of the front between models...but in
general is about halfway through the forecast area by early
Sunday evening. Models aren`t developing a whole lot of activity
along this boundary through the evening/overnight hours...so
any chances across ESE portions of the forecast area remain
low/20 percent. Ahead of that cold front...highs on Sunday look
to climb into the mid 80s...with continued gusty southerly
winds, which will turn more westerly, then northwesterly as the
front approaches and passes through. As far as fire weather
concerns go...drier dewpoints behind the front drop RH values
down closer to/below 30 percent...but there is some uncertainty
with how well those lower RH values line up with the winds,
which will be turning more NWrly as well.

Monday and on...

The main story for the start of the new work week will be with
the big drop in temperatures behind Sunday`s cold frontal
passage. By the time Monday morning rolls around...models show
the front well south of the forecast area. A notably cooler
airmass builds in for Monday-Tuesday, dropping forecast highs
both days back into the 60s (closer to normal, which is mid
60s-near 70). Forecast continues to have spotty, lower-
confidence precipitation chances going to start the
week...confidence in the timing/location of any shortwave
disturbances streaming northeast through the region is not high
at this point, so chances remain around 20 percent.

Through the mid-week period, models showing ridging working to
build its way back north through the Plains...with some
question of just how far north it reaches...and whether its
enough to keep the area precip-free. Not of the question that
periodic shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of the
ridging could bring precip chances to the area...just not a lot
of confidence in the details at this point...a trend to watch in
the coming days. Along with the ridging building back north,
warmer air works its way back into the area, with forecast highs
back in the mid 70s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period...up to this point any brief reductions in ceiling and/or
visibility have remained to the west and/or south of the
terminal areas, a trend that models/guidance suggest will
continue through the next couple of hours. Expecting increasing
cloud cover through the period...but these clouds will be in the
mid-upper levels. Winds remain light/variable to start this TAF
period...but be turning more northerly, then easterly as the
daytime hours pass. Speeds look to top out around 15 MPH. Winds
this evening/tonight will turn more southeasterly, around 10
MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP