894
FXUS63 KGID 090105
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
805 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to move into mainly northwestern
portions of the area tonight behind a cold frontal passage. A few of
these storms could be strong-severe.

- Scattered chances for precipitation on Saturday (15-40%) and
Sunday (15-70%), most likely across southeastern portions of the
area.

- Cooler weather this weekend with highs in the 80s-90s on
  Saturday and in the 70s-80s on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Updated the forecast to expire the heat advisory. Still
anticipating thunderstorm development late this evening and
overnight, a few of which may become strong to marginally
severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

This afternoon-Tonight...

A cluster of showers-weak storms has recently departed eastern
York/Fillmore/Thayer counties. These storms produced sporadic
heat bursts at they tracked across central portions of the area
this morning, with a Nebraska Mesonet station southeast of Wood
River jumping from the low 80s to 95 degrees! Elsewhere, where
sunshine has been more dominant, highs have climbed into the
90s, with temperatures in the low 100s across north central
Kansas. Heat index values are sitting in the upper 90s to 100s,
and are expected to top out around 105-109 degrees. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8pm. A cold
front is beginning to push it`s way into western portions of the
area, though the cooler air still sits across north central
Nebraska.

Attempts at scattered shower/thunderstorm development is underway
across northwest Kansas along the cold front. Hot temperatures
(100s) combined with dry low levels (dewpoints 40s-50s) will result
in an inverted V atmospheric profile. This setup favors storms
capable of producing gusty-damaging winds, with most of the rain
evaporating before reaching the ground. These storms would move into
far southwestern portions of the area this evening. While these
storms are expected to dissipate shortly after sunset given the loss
of daytime heating, there will likely be a 1-2 hour window around
sunset for Furnas/Harlan/Phillips/Rooks counties to have a locally
higher chance for damaging wind gusts.

Cooler air will filter into northwestern portions of the area this
evening, and push the cold front southeast. Dewpoints will be higher
along and north of the front. While surface based instability drops
off around sunset, the higher dewpoints will result in a pocket of
moderate elevated instability behind the front.  CAM guidance
supports scattered thunderstorm development moving in from
northeastern CO during the late evening hours. These storms will
have the potential to tap into this area of elevated instability.
How much storms make use of the favorable environment is uncertain
with CAM guidance ranging from only isolated instances of stronger
storms, to scattered strong-severe storms persisting throughout much
of the overnight hours. The strongest storms tonight will be capable
of producing wind gusts around 60mph and hail to the size of
quarters. Regardless, at least isolated-scattered
showers/thunderstorms are expected to move northeast across the area
behind the cold frontal passage tonight. Based on this, have kept
overnight PoPs (15-35%) mainly along and north/west of the Tri-
Cities. Breezy-Gusty winds are possible tonight (gusts 20-30mph) as
the cold front moves through, especially if combined with any
ongoing shower/storm.


Saturday...

Any lingering shower is expected to come to an end by the mid-late
morning hours on Saturday. The cold front is expected to stall just
to the southeast of the forecast area Saturday morning. Skies will
clear during the day, with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
Despite the sunshine, highs will be noticeably cooler, in the mid
80s to low 90s.

Precipitation chances (15-40%) return to the area Saturday night as
a disturbance within the broader troughing aloft moves into the
Plains. Scattered showers/storms will move out of Colorado, along
and just north of the stationary front, keeping most PoP chances
confined to southern/southeastern portions of the area.

Sunday...

Saturday night`s showers/storms are likely to be ongoing across at
least a portion of the area Sunday morning with some scattered
storms lingering into the late morning hours. Sky cover is expected
to be more robust on Sunday, helping keep temperatures cooler, with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. While there is likely to be a
lull in precipitation activity during the afternoon, as the area
sits inbetween disturbances, the next wave aloft moves into the
Plains Sunday night. This will bring another round of showers/storms
through the area. Similar to Saturday, it looks to be another
instance where rain mostly impacts southern/southeastern portions of
the area (40-70% PoPs) with areas northwest of the Tri-Cities
remaining dry (15-25% PoPs).

Next Week...

Monday will be another cooler day as the area remains under the
influence of troughing aloft. Temperatures begin to climb back
towards normal (mid 80s to low 90s) by the middle of next week as
zonal-northwesterly flow builds over the area. Drier weather is also
expected next week, with no notable disturbance impacting the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through the period
although there remains the possibility for a few -TSRAs tonight
behind a cold front with a very small possibility of MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (not in TAFs).

Light winds are being observed ahead of an approaching cold this
evening with winds starting to transition and become
northwesterly just upstream of the terminals. Expect winds to
shift and become more northerly over the next couple of hours at
both sites, with thickening mid level clouds near 12 KFT as the
front reaches the terminals. Late this evening, mesoscale
models indicate could see some additional convection initiate
over the high plains and track northeast over portions of the
area along the initial front, and have a prob30 group at both
sites to cover this possibility. While some -SHRAs/-TSRAs could
continue beyond 09/10Z, kept just a VCSH going until the
secondary front pushes through later in the morning, with SCT
CIGS eventually returning by 09/18Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Rossi