855
FXUS63 KGID 022037
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air quality is expected to improve some overnight as smoke continues
  to lift out of the area this afternoon. A few eastern
  Nebraska and southern Kansas areas have shown some air quality
  improvement today, hopefully shedding some light on what is
  soon to come. A few more days of hazy skies may still be
  present.

- Thunderstorm chances return late tonight, with a few likely weakening
  storms approaching from the west and a few developing non-
  severe storms across mainly the eastern half of the area late
  tonight and lasting into parts of the morning Sunday. The best
  precipitation chances fall towards the east (30-50% chances).


- The pleasant High temperatures after Sunday (mid to upper 70s)
  will gradually warming up through Friday, hanging around the
  upper 80s and 90s to finish off next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025


...Tonight...


Smoke from primarily canadian wildfires leave skies slightly hazy
this afternoon. The concentration of smoke is expected to slowly
decrease over then next day as southeasterly surface winds lift the
remainder of the plume back north again. A few eastern Nebraska and
southern Kansas areas have already shown some improving conditions
air quality wise this afternoon. Hazy skies may retain a few days
more form elevated traces of smoke. Winds today stick to the south
and occasionally southeast between 10-15 MPH and gusting as high as
20 MPH from the influence of the broad surface high pressure
centered over the great lakes.

Aloft, some PV advection will continue to help lead to the deepening
of a shortwave trough breaking out of the zonal flow over the
Rockies and into the Central Plains. This disturbance has already
help fire a cluster of storms across the High Plains and Eastern
Rockies this afternoon. These storms should follow a similar track
and pattern as the past two nights, approaching from the west late
tonight though not reaching our western edge before 10PM. There is
more uncertainly now with the latest CAM guidance decreasing the
total number of storms that do eventually arrive. Instead, most
models now develop additional elevated storms along a moisture
gradient centered across our eastern half of the area late tonight
and early Sunday. The better precipitation chances for the overnight
hours (40-50%) now lie towards the eastern half of our area for this
reason.

Despite a Marginal severe weather risk across our western few
counties today, the severe potential should be fairly limited as
most storms approaching from the west should be in the stages of
decay. Instability is expected to sharply drop off down to only a
few hundreds of Joules of CAPE close to and east of the Highway 183.
In addition, bulk shear, given the weak upper flow, should be
nothing to bat an eye at in terms of being able to help maintain any
severe convection.


...Sunday and Monday...


A few showers lingering from these late night showers and storms
could leave a few areas damp Sunday morning, especially areas closer
towards the east. Some of these showers could bring a few tenths up
to a half of an inch of precipitation to some concentrated areas.
The majority of the afternoon is expected to be more on the dry
side, though not every every area may be able to say that,
especially if some of the showers linger longer into the day. In
addition, a few storms can`t be ruled out completely Sunday evening
to night as a convergence boundary drops into northern Nebraska.
Storms breaking out from this boundary could become severe though
likely on a short lived basis as the environment remains
questionable instability wise as excess cloud coverage in the
daytime could limit the growth of CAPE values. Gusty winds and local
areas of heavy rainfall will still be a possibility within the
strongest storms. A marginal risk of severe weather covers areas
mainly along and west of Highway 183 for Sunday.

Temperatures Sunday may fall just a few degrees shy of today`s (mid
to upper 70s) from expansive cloud coverage. A gradual warmup
should follow starting Monday, though temperatures should still be
pleasant in the low to mid 80s on Monday. Light winds 10-15 MPH will
be expected to remain out of the south.


...Tuesday and Beyond...


A warmup will continue through Friday as a ridging pattern aloft
amplifies over the southwest, expanding its footprint up and into
the Central Plains. Winds look to stay fairly unchanged and out of
south to southeast at times. Some gustier winds (up to 30 MPH) may
show up Tuesday afternoon as a lobe of lower surface pressure
squeezes up against our northwest. The next precipitation chance
also falls Tuesday evening and night (10-30%) as a more stationary
boundary possibly passes just northwest of the area.

This currently is the best precipitation chance in the forecast until
next weekend. Subsidence from this ridge should generally make it
more challenging for an organized system to break out underneath. A
few more isolated storms though, may still be able to pop out here
and there. The main question will regard the day to day conditions
and where any boundary or any forcing may lie. The severe potential
remains a mystery beyond Monday as weak flow aloft will not be able
to assist much in terms of shear. The main focus each day will be
with how much instability is able to build with the warming
temperatures. Moisture content should not be a problem at all given
the expected mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints, making it feel muggy
out at times.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Hazy skies this afternoon as well as a few pop up low-level
cumulus may temporarily send either terminal into MVFR
conditions. Visibility could drop as low as 4-6 miles with
broken ceilings near 2,000ft at times.

The other forecast challenge overnight and into Sunday morning
will be the chance for scattered thunderstorms. Confidence is
still not high enough to go with prevailing groups and the
current 5-13z Prob30 window is likely more generous than not.
Storms have the best chances to arrive or pop up in this
window, though impacts will likely be more brief than long
lasting.

Besides the precipitation potential. winds will stay primarily
out of the south to southeast at times. The strongest winds
should not exceed 15kts with gusts no higher than 20kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump