285
FXUS63 KGID 030913
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
313 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light fog across much of the area early this morning with
  possible localized dense fog developing.

- Fog may develop again tonight, especially early in the night,
  but certainty is not high enough to include at this time.

- Warming temperatures into early next week with dry conditions
  through Wednesday night.

- Snow may fall across the area Thursday into Friday. Details
  remain uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

No significant forecast changes with this forecast update. Some
light fog is across much of the area. Some areas especially across
western portions of the forecast area (west of Highway 281) may
briefly drop to near 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile just before or around
sunrise. Do not expect any dense fog to be widespread enough for a
Dense Fog Advisory but will continue to monitor. Low temperatures in
the 20s are expected areawide by sunrise with continued calm to
light winds. Light winds will continue into this afternoon with
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures today are expected
to warm up into the mid 40s to upper 50s with the surface high just
to the east of the area. Low temperatures tonight are expected to
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Some fog may develop again
tonight but may disappear later in the night as winds increase out
of the south. There is not enough certainty at this time so left out
mention of fog for now. A dry forecast through Wednesday night is
still expected with temperatures continuing to warm up into early
next week. Precipitation chances are still expected to increase (15%
to around 25%) Thursday into Friday with the next storm system.
Specific details remain uncertain at this time although some of this
precipitation may be in the form of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
 CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- Of most pressing concern in the very short term: the Winter
  Weather Advisory first issued early this morning for several
  of our far northern/east-central counties has been since
  expanded southward to include several more of our Nebraska
  counties...as at least light icing potential could extend as
  far south as roughly a Lexington-Minden-Hebron line.

- Honestly no noteworthy forecast changes to speak of. We MIGHT
  have at least a minor round of rain and/or snow lurking by
  Thurs-Fri (Jan. 8-9), but model uncertainty is predictably
  high.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Jan.
 9...but very heavily focused on the first 15 hours):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 345 PM:
Not surprisingly in these kind of weather setups with low
stratus clouds entrenched in place and fairly light (5-10 MPH)
east-southeasterly breezes (not to mention most of the morning
featuring widespread fog/localized dense fog), temperatures
today will end up falling a good 3-9 degrees short of what was
forecast 24 hours ago. More specifically, current
readings/afternoon highs range upper 20s-low 30s across roughly
our northeastern 2/3rds, while slightly milder mid-upper 30s
prevail over our southwestern 1/2 (Cambridge airport very
briefly reached 40 in our extreme west, and only a few counties
west- southwest of our CWA 50+ was realized).

But getting back to the main story, due in part to the
aforementioned colder-than-expected temperatures and the
freezing line setting up farther south than it appeared even 12
hours ago, the threat for light freezing rain and at least a
glaze of ice has also reached farther south and necessitated the
southward extension of the Winter Weather Advisory (see below
for more on this). Despite the sub-freezing temperatures,
the minimal solar radiation getting through the afternoon sun
has mostly kept "true" icing impacts on roads so far today
confined to counties north of I-80 (per NDOT 511 road
conditions), but this could easily change this evening as
daylight fades.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data depict a compact-
but-evident vorticity max embedded within a broader, low
amplitude shortwave trough...currently tracking southeast
directly over our region and providing the forcing/lift for
ongoing light wintry precip. At the surface, moist easterly
(upslope) low level breezes have maintained the low stratus deck
westward through nearly our entire CWA (except for the far
western fringes..but even there skies are cloudy/mostly cloudy
under considerable mid-high clouds.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF SATURDAY:
As of this writing, the bulk of our CWA is at least temporarily
dry, while a more organized band of mainly light freezing rain
(perhaps mixed with a touch of sleet/snow) is traversing our
northern/western Nebraska counties. Over the course of the next
several hours, this primary batch of precip will steadily march
east-southeast through mainly the northeast 2/3rds of our CWA,
its departing/back end tied closely to the
aforementioned/compact vort max currently evident in radar
imagery over the Dawson/Custer County area. Leaning heavily on
observational trends along with higher-res guidance from models
such as HRRR, precip chances (PoPs) for late this afternoon-
evening were raised significantly above previous forecasts...as
most models have overall-struggled with the areal coverage of
precip today. Over the course of the day, made a couple of
southward extensions to the Winter Weather Advisory (which is
almost entirely driven by the ongoing/upcoming threat of at
least a light glaze (or additional glaze) of ice...with the
onset of nightfall taking any minimal solar energy getting
through the low clouds out of the picture, and potentially
making light icing a greater concern. The southern edge of the
Advisory may prove to be plenty "generous" (especially some of
the counties south of I-80), but based on actual radar and HRRR
modeled reflectivity trends, felt it was prudent to include all
counties expected to be most solidly at-or-below freezing until
the back edge of precip finally clears our far
eastern/southeastern CWA mainly in the 8-10 PM time frame.
Speaking of that, the "end time" of the Advisory was extended
out until 10 PM...but this is mainly for the eastern-most
counties (some west-northwest counties may end up being
cancelled early). As for precip type, a few hundredths of an
inch of freezing rain is clearly the main feature based on
thermal profiles, but a touch of embedded sleet/snow cannot be
ruled out either (the Advisory is NOT geared toward sleet/snow
however).

Once any precip moves out this evening, the next concern is how
efficiently skies might start to clear from west-to-east
overnight, and resultant fog issues. While mid-high level
clouds will surely depart late, models such as RAP/HRRR really
hang onto residual lower stratus through the night...especially
over our east half. Despite surface/low level breezes turning
westerly late tonight in the wake of the departing trough axis,
this weak downslope flow might not be strong enough to keep fog
from developing. Per latest HRRR modeled-visibility, the
southwest quadrant of our CWA would be most favored for possible
fog/dense fog development. However, with everything else going
on before then and with fog development/coverage inherently
uncertain even at this time range, opted to only include generic
patchy fog in some western counties along with inclusion in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Confidence in dense fog
simply too low to hoist a formal Advisory yet.

Finally for tonight, low temps were raised a little based
largely on the assumption that low clouds will remain
firm...most places aimed mid-upper 20s. However, any unexpected
clearing could easily end up getting some places down into the
low 20s.


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Once any potential morning fog/lingering low stratus dissipates,
the afternoon should give way to a seasonably-pleasant day,
featuring light westerly breezes (mainly 5-10 MPH) and
sunny/mostly sunny skies. High temps forecast to range low-mid
50s most areas, except some mid-upper 40s far east/northeast.

Saturday evening-overnight, breezes turn more southerly and pick
up a bit with time. The combo of the slightly increasing winds
and increasing high clouds will keep low temps on the milder
side...most areas aimed 28-32. At this time, fog issues are not
anticipated for a change, but this bears watching especially in
northern counties.


- SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
In short, this still looks like an unseasonably-mild/pleasant
and dry stretch of weather. Although models such as the ECMWF
occasionally bring transient rounds of precip close to our CWA
at times, for now this are expected to remain slightly to our
north. Winds don`t look overly-strong most days, with Sunday
probably overall-breeziest (gusts to around 25 MPH from the
south). Most noteworthy though are temperatures, with highs
forecast well into the 50s if not low 60s each day, and
overnight lows only dropping to a few degrees either side of
freezing most nights.


- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
Our official forecast calls for generic slight chances (mainly
20 percent) of rain and/or snow during this time, as both the
ECMWF/GFS suggest a more unsettled weather pattern as a large-
scale western U.S. upper trough tracks into the central states.
However, deterministic models "all over the place" on whether we
actually see meaningful/impactful precip or whether these
chances mostly split around north/south of our area. Obviously
PLENTY of time to sort this out. Temperatures are forecast to
trend down, with highs mainly 40s Thurs and 30s Friday (but even
this is still "near-normal".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR ceilings and pockets of IFR fog will continue tonight
into Saturday morning. Skies then scatter out from west to east
in the 15-18Z timeframe. Winds remain light through the day on
Saturday.

The HRRR and RAP hint that some stratus may return Saturday
night, but overall probabilities remain low, and this is largely
after the end of this TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels