509
FXUS63 KGID 061743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Kept lingering low-end chances (20 percent) in the forecast
  during the daytime hours today...with better chances for
  thunderstorms returning later this evening-overnight. Best
  chances are focused across KS, with some uncertainty with
  overall coverage further north. At this time, best potential
  for severe weather tonight looks to be focused south of the
  forecast area.

- Activity from tonight may linger across the eastern half of
  the area into the first half of the day on Saturday...western
  areas likely dry out by early-mid morning. Once that activity
  pushes east...looking to be dry through Sat night...with
  another quick moving disturbance bringing spotty shower/storm
  chances for Sunday. Severe weather is not anticipated either
  day.

- The first half of the new work week looks to be drier, with
  precip chances not returning to the forecast until Wed night.

- Today is forecast to be the overall coolest day of this 7-day
  forecast period, with highs in the low-mid 70s. Highs this
  weekend into mid-week are forecast for most to be in the upper
  70s-mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing continued west-
southwesterly flow in place across the region...set up between
high pressure along the TX/Gulf coast and troughing extending
from CA northeastward toward the Hudson Bay region. Embedded
shortwave lift is keeping isolated to scattered showers around
the forecast area early this morning...with the main MCS well
south of the area working its way across southern KS and OK. SPC
Mesoanalysis page shows minimal amounts of instability across
the southern half of the forecast area...so can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder, but stronger storms remain to our south. At
the surface, the pattern across the area remains pretty
weak...broad high pressure is spread across the Nrn Plains into
the Midwest, with the main frontal boundary draped across the
Srn Plains. Winds early this morning have a more northerly
direction...but speeds remain light, around 5-10 MPH. Models
showing the potential for patchy fog across the area through the
morning hours, so did insert that mention into the forecast.

Today through the upcoming weekend...

Not looking at notable changes in the upper level pattern today,
remaining WSWrly, with continued at least small chances for
precipitation lingering around. The daytime hours look to bring
a relative lull in activity in the wake of the current batch
making its way east across the forecast area...but kept 20
percent/isolated chances in the forecast through the day, can`t
totally rule out some spotty precip with the lingering albeit
subtle lift and potential for steepening lapse rates this
afternoon. Not out of the question that many spots stay dry
after 12Z this morning. Some breaks in cloud cover are also
possible through the day...but models suggest that CU would be
quick to develop...so kept skies partly-mostly cloudy. The
surface pattern remains weak...current northerly winds are
expected to turn more easterly with time, but speeds again look
to peak in the 10-15 MPH range. No notable changes made to highs
for today, reaching the low 70s for most.

This evening and tonight, yet another upper level shortwave
disturbance will bring precip chances to the forecast area.
Later today, between this approaching wave and
upslope/easterly flow, thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop over the higher elevations of CO. This activity is
expected to evolve into a larger complex, sliding southeast onto
the Plains this evening-overnight. Models remain in fairly good
agreement showing the better instability and increased lift via
the LLJ remaining focused just to the south of the forecast
area...taking the path of that MCS and better potential for
severe weather more across southern KS. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible further north across our forecast
area...and while the best chances are focused across our north
central KS counties (50-60 percent), kept a fairly broad 30-40
percent chance across south central NE...confidence in the
overall coverage is not high at this point.

As we get into Saturday, main question is how quickly the
activity moving in tonight can shift east out of the forecast
area. Differences between models continue to vary with the
timing...some have activity totally gone by mid-morning, others
linger at least isolated coverage into the afternoon hours. This
would mainly affect the eastern half of the forecast area,
along/east of HWY 281, with areas to the west likely precip-free
for the day by early-mid morning. Kept an area of 20 percent
chances lingering into the afternoon hours...depending on model
trends, upcoming shifts may be able to remove that mention. A
surface trough axis moving through the area is expected to
switch winds to the west for the day, but again speeds are not
notable, topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting a warmer day,
with models showing a warmer air mass building in, combined with
the more westerly winds...bringing forecast highs in the low
80s.

During the day on Saturday, and continuing through the rest of
the weekend...models remain in good agreement showing a shift
in the upper level pattern to become more northwesterly...thanks
to the departing wave to the east and a stronger low pressure
system digging southeast trough central Canada. By Sunday
evening models have this low set up over the ND/MN/Canada border
area. A shortwave disturbance associated with this low looks to
swing southeast through the Central Plains on Sunday...but
models vary with just how much activity there is, so chances
remain low at 20 percent. Saturday night into Sunday, an overall
weak sfc cool front accompanying the upper level wave brings a
switch to more NW winds, with Sunday being the first day in a
while where winds may be a bit more `breezy`...with speeds
potentially closer to 15-20 MPH. Not looking at a notable
cooldown...with highs still in the mid 70s-near 80.

Can`t rule out thunderstorms either day this weekend...but
models keep the better instability out of the area, so the
threat of severe weather remains low.

Monday and on...

Overall no notable changes in the forecast for these latter
period...which trend drier compared to today through the
weekend. Models remain in decent agreement in the broad
picture...showing continued northwesterly flow in the upper
levels at least through Tuesday. Wednesday still looking to be a
transition day...with upper level flow turning more zonal with
broad ridging sliding through the Plains...then turning more
southwesterly for the end of the work week. At this point,
models still not showing any notable systems/decent precip
chances Monday-Wednesday...with some 20 percent chances working
their way back in Wed night-on with that more southwesterly
upper level flow.

A reinforcing frontal boundary swinging through Sunday night
brings better potential for gusty NW winds for the day on
Monday...diminishing and more variable for Tuesday. For mid-
week, the forecast area gets set up between departing sfc high
pressure to the east and deepening low pressure over the High
Plains...which will bring the potential for gusty southerly
winds Wed-Thu.

As far as temperatures go...forecast for Monday is similar to
Sunday with highs in the mid 70s-near 80, then warming up more
solidly in the mid 80s for Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR by 20z with low ceilings
returning around 06z and continuing through at least 13z.
Improving ceilings are expected from 13z to 16z with VFR
conditions from 17z onward. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms beginning around 06z and possibly continuing until
around 15z. Winds will mostly be light and variable.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Schuldt