412
FXUS63 KGID 101724
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will remain in the 80s for Today and the upper 80s to
  mid 90s for Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation will come Friday night with
  the arrival of a cold front. The better storm potential
  (50-70% chances) will be concentrated across areas north of
  I-80 or east of HWY-281.

- A few strong to severe storms may be possible Friday night
  into Saturday. A marginal and slight severe weather outlook is
  in place.

- The front overnight Friday will keep highs in the 70s to low
  90s range through Monday with an even cooler signal possible
  on Tuesday (mid 60s to low 70s?).

- Scattered thunderstorm chances return each day Sunday through
  Wednesday, though it is unlikely for an given location to see
  storms each and every one of those days/night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026


We start the day off cool as lows this morning are on track to reach
the low 50s (locations northwest of the Tri-Cities) to low 60s
(north central Kansas areas). Despite the efforts from diurnal
warming underneath mostly clear skies today and with the onset of
southeasterly warm air advecting winds later this afternoon, highs
are still forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s for today. With
zonal flow transitioning to a weak ridging pattern aloft (mid-level
AVA/-VA based decent), the full area is likely to remain precip free
through the rest of the day.

At the surface, a high pressure center (responsible for the light
surface winds overnight and this morning) will continue to shift
eastward. The exit of this higher surface pressure today will allow
southeasterly surface winds to blow between 10-15 MPH this afternoon
(a few locations near and northwest of the Tri-Cities could see
gusts as high as 20-25MPH). In addition, the return of southerly
flow will help reload/replenish the low-level moisture concentration
ahead of the next storm chance Friday evening/night (PWAT values as
high as 1.25-1.5 in).

Highs for Friday look to increase around 5-10 degrees from Thursday
(upper 80s to low 90s). This heat, however, will be short lived as
yet another cold frontal passage this week is slated to pass
overnight Friday. This front paired with an approaching short-wave
trough aloft will bring the area its next widespread storm chance
overnight Friday (40-70%). There is still some uncertainties in
regards to timing of this front that could impact the storm
coverage and intensity Friday night.

The main spilt in guidance has come between the global long-range
models (GFS/ECMWF) favoring an earlier arrival for the front and
broader storm coverage in comparison to some of the higher-
resolution short-term guidance (NAMNEST/HRRR) that favor a later
arrival and more concentrated band of storms (mainly across
locations north of I-80 or east of HWY-281). Given the anticipated
convective parameters (High CAPE, modest shear & appreciable low-
to-mid level lapse rates), it should not take too much forcing from
the cold front to be able to produce strong to severe convection.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to place most of the area
under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and most areas north of I-80
under a slight risk (level2 of 5) for severe weather. Hail up to the
size of quarters with wind gusts in excess of 60MPH will be
the primary severe threats.

Scattered storm chances return Saturday, although the storm potential
will be highly reliant on where the front stalls on Saturday as well
as how fast instability is able to deteriorate following the overnight
wave of storms Friday night. The better known element Saturday will
be the temperature and wind forecast. Steady northeasterly winds are
sure to preclude the front. With the partial assist from overcast
skies and cool air behind the front, temperatures Saturday are
expected to peak in the 70s for much of central Nebraska and the low
to mid 80s for north central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

This Afternoon/Tonight...

Scattered showers have largely come to an end across the area,
though isolated activity can`t be ruled out across far southeastern
portions of the area. Further northwest lingering stratus is favored
to gradually clear throughout the afternoon-early evening hours.
Scattered thunderstorm redevelopment along/north of a cold front in
Kansas could clip southern portions of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell
counties during the late evening-early overnight hours. Otherwise
mostly clear skies are expected overnight with lows in the mid 60s.

Thursday...

Largely zonal flow aloft continues across the central U.S. on
Thursday. Highs will be near their climatological normals, in the
low 80s. Breezy southerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected during
the afternoon hours across northwest portions of the area. Overall a
fairly pleasant September day is in store for the area.

Friday...

Temperatures climb into the upper 80s-low 90s on Friday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Southerly winds will be breezy during
the day, gusting 25-30mph, strongest for areas northeast of the Tri-
Cities. The breezy southerly flow will also help to advect moisture
into the area ahead of an approaching cold front with dewpoints
climbing into the upper 60s-low 70s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorm
development is possible during the late evening-overnight hours
along the cold front. There is some uncertainty how far south
storms will be able to develop given weaker forcing (front
further from surface low) and stronger capping. Still, at least
isolated development is possible across the area. If storms do
form, 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE and 30kts of shear would support
strong/severe thunderstorms. The cold front will gradually move
into the area during the overnight hours with winds becoming
northerly behind the front.

This Weekend Onwards...

The aforementioned cold front looks to stall out across southern
portions of the area during the day on Saturday. North of the front,
cooler and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the upper
80s south of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
along/north of the front during the afternoon/evening hours on
Saturday, some of which may be strong-severe though impacts remain
uncertain given spread in model guidance on the placement of the
front. Off and on thunderstorm chances continue through the end of
the forecast period as a series of disturbances move thorugh the
area. Highs will vary, ranging from the low 70s to the low 90s
depending on the timing of frontal passages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period but there is a low
(15%) chance for sub-VFR ceilings early Friday morning. South-
southeasterly winds shift to the south this evening,
strengthening slightly around midnight as a Low Level Jet (LLJ)
develops. As the LLJ strengthens, there could be some marginal
LLWS that develops but it looks to be just shy of criteria at
this time. Around 09-14z, an area of low stratus/patchy fog may
move into KGRI/KEAR from the southeast. Most model guidance
keeps fog/stratus away from KGRI/KEAR but will need to monitor
model trends to see if this may move/impact further northeast
than currently depicted. For now just have a FEW010 group to
indicate low probability for sub-VFR CIGS. Southerly surface
winds strengthen after sunrise, with sustained winds around
15kts and gusts around 25kts by the end of the TAF period.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis