566
FXUS63 KGID 241748
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1248 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy, seasonably cool (50s/60s) and occasionally unsettled
  weather (20-70%) in the forecast for the next several days.

- Temperatures will gradually climb back to near normal by the
  end of the week (upper 70s) with Highs in the 80s possible
  next weekend.

- Precip chances will begin to diminish mid-week with smaller
  (10-30%) and less frequent chances for showers and
  thunderstorms thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed across Kansas
late Friday and evening and passed south of the local area
overnight. Locally, only very scattered and light showers were
noted, with an expansive area of low clouds seen on satellite
spreading across the local area.

For today, expect more clouds than shower/thunderstorm activity
through the daytime hours with the next disturbance in westerly
upper level flow expected to bring an increase in activity again
this evening and late tonight. Given fairly meager instability
values, strong or severe weather appears unlikely, but a fairly
widespread area of showers and weak thunderstorms should bring
some additional widespread rainfall...on the order of a quarter
to a half an inch of accumulation...to the local area. Severe
weather should remain south of our Kansas counties, and the
marginal risk for severe weather was correspondingly trimmed
south overnight.

For much of next week...expect a weak west to northwesterly flow
pattern aloft to continue across the area with multiple weak
disturbances forecast to bring additional chances for showers
and non-severe thunderstorms to at least parts of the local
area. Late in the week...the pattern will being to change as
high pressure builds across the intermountain west and
eventually tilts positively into the central plains as low
pressure cuts off across the desert southwest. This should
result in diminishing chances for showers and thunderstorms by
Friday (although non-zero) along with rising temperatures, with
above normal temperatures rising back into the 80s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Seeing a break in showers/clouds around much of the area here at
midday...but precip chances will be increasing this afternoon,
and expected to linger through the overnight hours. Hi-res
models showing activity potentially moving through in a couple
of waves, the first now approaching from the NW, will be working
its way into the terminal areas mid-late afternoon...another
later this evening-overnight. Precip coverage may diminish in
the latter few hours of this period. Ceilings are currently VFR,
but models are in pretty good agreement showing gradual
lowering through the rest of the day and on into tonight...and
have period of anything from MVFR to LIFR in the forecast...with
the lowest ceilings being closer to midnight on through the
early morning hours Sunday. Winds remain generally easterly
through the period, sustained speeds look to be around 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP