572
FXUS63 KGID 291103
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Highs in the 90s to low 100s this weekend with heat index
   values topping out in the low 100s.

- Scattered showers/storms possible during the late evening-overnight
  hours tonight/Sunday night as storms move in from the west.

- Seasonably warm conditions continue next week with highs in
  the 80s and 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Scattered thunderstorms aided by a Low Level Jet (LLJ) are gradually
moving east across the area this morning. These storms will continue
to shift east across the area throughout the early morning hours.
Storms are expected to diminish in coverage after sunrise as the LLJ
weakens. Aloft a ridge is centered over the Plains with troughing
over the western U.S. A hot day is expected as highs climb into the
90s to low 100s, warmest across north central Kansas. Heat index
values will be similar, in the mid 90s to low 100s. While heat
indices will fall short of heat advisory criteria, it will still be
unpleasant nonetheless. Breezy winds are expected to start the day
gusting 20-30mph but winds gradually decrease during the late
morning-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across
eastern CO/WY during the late afternoon-evening hours. Storms are
expected to reach western portions of the area after sunset with
lingering scattered-isolated storms continuing throughout the
overnight hours. Given the time of arrival, strong-severe storms
appear unlikely.

Rain chances come to an end shortly after sunrise on Sunday, with
skies clearing during the morning. Another hot day is expected on
Sunday as highs once again soar into the 90s to low 100s.
Similar to Today, heat index values fall just shy of heat
headline criteria but those with outdoor activities will want to
drink plenty of water. During the late evening-overnight hours
a cluster of showers/storms looks to move out of northwest
Kansas, bringing another round of shower/storms to the area.

Seasonably warm weather continues next week under southwesterly flow
aloft. Highs will generally be in the 80s and 90s, warmest across
southern portions of the area. Off and on thunderstorm chances
continue as shortwave troughs traverse through the southwesterly
flow aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An upper ridge extends from New Mexico to Nebraska. Winds across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are
expected to increase out of the south at around 15 to 20 MPH with
gusts up to 25 MPH. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s
to mid 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the
area from the west this evening and continue moving eastward
tonight. Widespread severe storms are not expected; however, an
isolated strong to marginally severe storm will be possible (15%
chance). The main threat of severe storms will be along and west of
Highway 183. Wind gusts up to around 60 MPH and hail will be the
main threats with these storms. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the 70s with winds not weakening much, if any, from the daytime.
Skies tonight will generally be partly to mostly cloudy which will
also aid in preventing further cooling of temperatures overnight.

The upper ridge will move further east on Saturday with the northern
edge extending to Nebraska. This will allow a surface trough to the
west (across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado) to expand
further east. These conditions will allow for temperatures to heat
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees on Saturday. Heat index
values will generally range from the upper 90s to 105 degrees.
Isolated areas in north central Kansas and perhaps in far southern
Nebraska will be the most likely to have temperatures and/or heat
index values near or at 105 degrees. Showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm or two may move across mainly western portions of the
forecast area Saturday evening into Saturday night. Low temperatures
Saturday night are generally expected to range from the upper 60s
across northwestern portions of the area to around 80 degrees across
southern and southeastern portions of the area.

Some showers may linger through Sunday morning and perhaps into the
afternoon hours across portions of the area. High temperatures on
Sunday are expected to be similar to those on Saturday. However,
portions of the area across the northwest and north on Sunday may be
a couple of degrees cooler than the previous day with increased
cloud cover and possible developing showers due to a shortwave
passing over the area. Heat index values on Sunday may approach or
reach 105 degrees for isolated locations across north central
Kansas, especially Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties. A passing
shortwave and an approaching cold front may bring showers and storms
to mainly western and northern portions of the forecast area Sunday
evening into Sunday night. There is a low chance (20%) that some of
these storms may become strong to marginally severe if there is
enough elevated CAPE and sufficient lift. Low temperatures Sunday
night will range from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s.

The upper ridge will continue to shift eastward during the early to
middle part of next week. This eastward shift of the ridge will
contribute to temperatures cooling slightly (mid 80s to 100 degrees)
Monday through Thursday. It will also contribute to various chances
of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area Monday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will dissipate
by the mid-morning hours as the low level jet weakens. Southerly
winds gusting 20-25kts will weaken by the late morning hours,
first at KEAR then GRI. Winds become light during the evening
hours continuing into the overnight hours at KEAR. At KGRI, the
Low level jet will be close enough that surface winds will
increase slightly with a brief window of LLWS developing around
04-08z. Additionally there`s a low (20%) chance for scattered
thunderstorms after 04z, but the confidence in KGRI/KEAR being
impacted is too low to include a PROB30 or prevailing group.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis