493
FXUS63 KGID 042211
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall pattern over the next few days will continue to favor
  mainly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures,
  though there will be day-to-day fluctuations with frequent
  frontal passages.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures (50s to near 60F)
  for tomorrow, but temperatures rebound to widespread 60s for
  Thursday and Friday.

- A stronger cold front arrives on Saturday and may lead to
  strong NW wind gusts of 35-45 MPH, sprinkles, and areas of
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Fire weather concerns haven`t really panned out today, despite
widespread well-above average temperatures, thanks to only
modest wind speeds/gusts. RHs have tanked and temps have spiked
behind a sfc trough that currently lies along our far NW/W
fringes of the forecast area - generally from around ODX to LXN
to CSB. Behind this trough, winds have taken on a more Wrly
downsloping component compared to the more S/SW wind direction
further E. LXN (behind the sfc trough) has warmed into the low
80s and RH has dropped into the teens...but fortunately, wind
remains fairly light around 10-15 MPH. Mild and dry conditions
will continue into the evening, but a cold front will sweep in
from the NW overnight and turn winds around to the NW. This will
usher in significantly cooler temperatures for Wednesday - 50s
to around 60 degrees. Despite the 15-20 degree drop in highs,
it`ll actually still be around normal for early Nov...but
there`s also going to be added chill from continued breezy NW
winds...so not bad, but not nearly as pleasant as today.

Temperatures will rebound a bit for Thursday as winds swing
back around to S/SW/W, though there looks to be some cloud cover
around. Mild temps continue into Friday, and there should be
more sunshine. Will have to monitor winds, though. Some guidance
is fairly breezy (NW 15-25 G30-35 MPH), but latest NBM is still
fairly modest.

A stronger cold front will swing through late Friday into
Saturday and bring another push of cooler temperatures and
strong NW winds. Model guidance continues to hint at some
potential for light precipitation, as well...particularly N/NE
of the Tri-Cities. This would most likely be in the form of rain
showers as best chances for the four-letter "s" word to remain
along/N of the ND/SD border. Latest EPS ensemble shows decent
agreement amongst the members for fairly strong NW winds -
likely at least 30-40 MPH, but potentially as high as 45-50 MPH.
The further SW one goes, the more likely there will be some
drier air - potentially dry enough for some fire weather
concerns. Current blend falls short of reaching criteria as its
mainly 25-30%, but another 5-10% drop certainly seems plausible
depending on the timing/track of main storm system.

Ensembles show a stout slug of cooler air to move in from the N
for Sunday into Monday, accompanied by a seasonably strong 1040+
mb high pressure center. This could really tank lows Monday AM
into the teens if timing and cloud cover line up just right.
However, the cold looks to be brief as the zonal to NW upper
flow keeps a progressive pattern in place and allows for mild
temperatures to return from the W/SW.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with only occasional thin, high cirrus.

Main item to note will be a wind shift with the passage of a
cold front tonight. SSW to SW winds this afternoon will veer to
Wrly late this evening, then turn to NW-NNW with passage of the
front around midnight. Breezy NNW winds will continue into
Wednesday AM. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies