740
FXUS63 KGID 040609
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
109 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mixed weather for Independence Day - mainly dry through the
  morning hours, then increasing chances for thunderstorms
  through the afternoon and evening. Timing may very well be
  unfortunate for evening plans, esp. along and W of Hwy 281.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on
  Friday during the afternoon and evening. Localized wind gusts
  50-60 MPH and very heavy downpours are the primary threats.

- Saturday is trending mainly dry for vast majority of south
  central Nebraska and north central Kansas...and Sunday may not
  be too bad either, though confidence is lower by then.

- Persistent zonal to NW upper flow will keep an active pattern
  in place through much of next week. Multiple rounds of storms
  with strong winds and heavy rain will be possible, but
  details are still quite vague this far out in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Quiet and seasonably warm early July weather is in place across
much of the region today. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to
mid 90s, with seasonable humidity adding a couple/few deg to the
apparent temperature. There is a steady Srly breeze, though,
helping to keep it from feeling too stagnant under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Quiet conditions will persist through the
evening and overnight.

By far, the biggest focus of this forecast is the potential for
thunderstorms to impact Independence Day activities. For some
good news...appears most, if not all, of the forecast area will
remain dry through the morning hours. Winds will become breezy
out of the south (similar or slightly higher than today) shortly
after sunrise, but think any precipitation will hold off until
the afternoon.

Upper level trough, currently very evident on WV imagery near
the Four Corners region, will deamplify somewhat tonight, but
remain on a trajectory to impinge on the region Friday
afternoon. The main ingredient that stands out as abnormal will
be the amount of moisture throughout the atmospheric column.
This tamps down the lapse rates and hail threat, but PWATs
rising to, or above, 2" is very noteworthy for this area. In
fact, latest EPS mean shows PWATs of around +3 standard
deviations streaming northward ahead of the trough thanks to
both Gulf and subtropical Pacific connections. Typically, these
types of environments tend to fire convection relatively early,
sometimes as early as 1-3PM, and think that`ll be the case
tomorrow - especially for areas SW/W of the Tri-Cities. This
activity will probably be iso to widely scattered and not
necessarily a "washout" by itself, with 30-45 min heavy
downpours followed by like an hour of dry.

Uncertainly really increases around/after 4PM. CAMs are in
decent agreement that a more linear/widespread band of
convection will develop towards late afternoon, and move E.
However, they disagree on exactly WHERE and WHEN this will
occur. These details, of course, will be very important to
determining impacts for the evening hours. Seems to be greatest
agreement/confidence that the most intense/widespread activity
will favor the W third to half - along/W of Hwy 281 - of the
area. Further E towards Hwy 81 corridor, chances appear somewhat
lower such that there may not be too many issues between
7-11pm. In between, including GI and Hastings, is where the
greatest uncertainty lies. Could be a situation where some spots
eek out just enough dry time, whereas a location 30 miles away
is experiencing 1-2"/hr rain rates. Just too difficult to pin
down this far out. Any storms before 10-11pm will be capable of
localized wind gusts of 50-60 MPH (wet microbursts)...and given
the extremely high PWATs, expect any convection to be very
efficient precip producers - perhaps 2-3" in the span of 1-2
hours. Fortunately, this doesn`t appear to be quite a setup for
training or really slow-moving cells...so latest indications are
that hydro issues should be isolated.

The convection Friday night should sweep through most of the
area by sunrise Sat AM...leaving the rest of the day fairly
stable. If anything, Saturday is trending drier for most, if
not all, of the day/area. Otherwise, fairly seasonable day.
Forecast uncertainty increases some for Sunday, but think most
of the day favors mainly dry, then perhaps some slightly better
chances (30-40%) late afternoon into evening/night.

Active pattern will remain in place for much of next week as
area remains in zonal to NW upper flow along N periphery of S
CONUS ridging. Location/orientation of the ridges will favor
continued connection to deep moisture through at least early
week, before some decr and more NW flow for mid-late week.
Combination of deep moisture, weak EML, and steady stream of
weak perturbations will lead to daily high plains convection,
with somewhat enhanced mid-upper level flow supporting some
organization and E/SE propagation through the evening hrs and
into the nights. Typically, this type of pattern in July favors
multiple MCSs with some wind and heavy rain threat. Beyond this
general pattern recognition, details such as location of
heaviest rain or timing remain quite vague this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will prevail through at least the afternoon hours
Friday, ahead of an upper level disturbance which should
emerge from the intermountain west and cross the local area
late in the afternoon through the evening hours. Ahead of this
disturbance...steady southerly winds near 12 KTS will continue
across the terminals with very marginal LLWS possible towards
daybreak. Latest VWP indicates 35 KTS at 1 KFT, which is just
under LLWS criteria, so opted to not mention this in the 06Z
TAFs. Clouds should be on the increase late in the night with
mid level clouds increasing by 04/14Z...with CITS then
gradually lowering to MVFR levels late in the period (by 05/02Z)
as TSRA chances begin to increase. With daytime heating,
surface winds should increase, with gusts to near 30 KTS at
times throughout the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi