954
FXUS63 KGID 131144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect again today for most areas
  west of Highway 281 from 1 PM through 10 PM.

- High confidence in dry weather today, but despite dry forecast
  on Thursday and Friday, can not rule out an isolated strong to
  severe thunderstorm.

- Best chance for strong/severe thunderstorms and at least
  scattered areas of appreciable rainfall will be Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday night. Rain chances could linger
  into Monday, but with less certainty.

- Near critical fire weather conditions could continue at times
  mainly across our western zones, but no obvious additional Red
  Flag Days at this point in time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Today...
In the short term our biggest weather concern will center around
this afternoon/evening`s Red Flag Warning. Low RH values <20%
are highly likely, but the south winds will be more marginal
especially east of the Tri-Cities. Western zones will see an
earlier increase in southerly winds as the surface high slides
east of our area. It`s these western zones that will see
afternoon southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Please see the
updated "Fire Weather" section below for additional detailed
daily information regarding fire weather concerns (RH/wind).


Thursday and Friday...
The NBM POP is less than 15 percent and thus indicates dry days.
Although most areas will likely be dry, we can not rule out an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and the SPC has included
our far southeastern zones in a marginal/slight risk both days.
We have some models like the 00Z RRFS that indicate at least
some potential for showers and thunderstorms. I could see POPs
increasing into the 20-30% range with future updates if more
models trend wetter. Still, don`t get your hopes up for rain
until this weekend, that`s really our best hope for appreciable
rainfall when the main upper trough pushes into and through our
area.


Saturday into Sunday...
This weekend`s upper level trough is appearing more impressive
as we get closer, digging deeper and slowing down. This will
finally allow better Gulf of America moisture (60+ dew points)
to reach well into our forecast area. NBM dew point values are
likely too low resulting in RH values that are also likely too
low. Gulf moisture along with upper level forcing will bring us
our best chance at more widespread appreciable rainfall,
although it could come with a few severe storms. Both Saturday
evening/night and again Sunday evening/night have at least a
50/50 shot or better of seeing some measurable rainfall. Stay
tuned as we get closer and we can fine tune the most favored
timing and location for weekend rainfall and severe weather
threat. There is high confidence in temperatures being much
above normal this weekend topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s.



Monday...
The upper trough has slowed down enough that forecast models
are now indicating post frontal rainfall could impact portions
of the area into Monday. Temperatures will begin to fall behind
the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. A cold
front is pushing through Nebraska and Kansas with winds becoming
gusty out of the north. High temperatures today are expected to
range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of the forecast area today. See Fire Weather
discussion below. Winds will weaken and become more variable tonight
with clear to mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will cool
into the low 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

Winds will increase out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with
an upper ridge developing from Texas northward to North Dakota. A
surface high will be centered to the east of the area but will still
impact south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
As a result, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to
mid 80s. Winds are expected to stay elevated Wednesday night with
increasing clouds. These conditions will result in overnight low
temperatures Wednesday night in the 50s. Winds on Thursday will be
strongest in the morning out of the south but will weaken and become
more variable by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday may
warm up into the mid 80s to mid 90s but there is some uncertainty
with this warmup. The uncertainty has to do with winds becoming more
variable during the mid to late afternoon hours when the high
temperature typically occurs and lack of a strong surface trough.
There is also a slight chance (15% to 20%) of showers and storms
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of the area with a
shortwave moving overhead. There is potential (about 20%) of some
storms becoming strong to severe Thursday afternoon and evening due
to fairly high CAPE, wind shear, lapse rates, and upper lift being
present. Skies will clear Thursday night with light and variable
winds. These conditions will result in temperatures cooling into the
mid/upper 40s to around 60 degrees Thursday night.

Friday through Monday...

Winds will be relatively light (around 5 to 10 MPH) on Friday with a
surface trough across the west. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny
with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s to mid 90s. An upper
level shortwave (and likely more than 1) is expected to move over
the area on Friday. Wind shear, CAPE, and mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be fairly high on Saturday and Sunday so severe storms
may develop. Portions of the forecast area are outlooked in the SPC
day 5 and 6 outlooks for severe storm potential. High temperatures
Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 80s and 90s. A cold
front will move into the area on Monday with high temperatures
mostly in the 70s. Severe storms may develop across southeastern
portions of the area on Monday depending on the timing/speed of the
front. Generally expect that any severe storms will be east of the
forecast area at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF valid period.
Clear and calm conditions at the start of the period will give
way to increasing high clouds this afternoon/tonight along with
increasing winds this evening/tonight. The primary aviation
concern will center around the possibility for strong low level
wind shear late tonight, mainly after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today...
There is high confidence in afternoon min RH values once again
falling into the 15-20% range. However, an area of surface high
pressure will slide east across the area resulting in lighter
surface winds this morning with the lighter winds lingering over
eastern zones throughout the day. Stronger southerly wind gusts
(25-30 mph) are expected across our far western zones (Dawson to
Furnas Counties) by mid to late afternoon. Therefore, we have
issued another Red Flag Warning for our western zones.

Thursday...
RH values will be a bit higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds
(30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and
then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon as RH
values fall into the 20-30% range.

Friday...
RH values will dip again generally around or below 20%, but
with lighter winds (<20 mph). Our NBM RH values may be a bit too
low on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...
Southeasterly wind gusts will increase (25-35 mph) ahead of the
next storm system and also bring more moisture/higher RH values
(>20%) back into the region. NBM dew point and RH values are
likely too low. Most areas should see 60 degree dewpoints and I
expect when the NBM catches onto this better moisture we will
see our dew point and RH values rise resulting in less of a fire
weather concern this weekend, but we shall see.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely