144
FXUS63 KGID 221136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Three rounds of precipitation: This morning through this
  afternoon, Overnight tonight through Thursday morning &
  Overnight Thursday through Friday morning; will bring up to
  0.25-1.5+" of precipitation to the area. The greatest amounts
  should be concentrated towards areas near, north and east of
  the Tri-Cities.

- Most of the precipitation should fall across the overnight
  Wednesday and overnight Thursday time periods, coming mainly
  from scattered showers with a few embedded weak (non-severe)
  thunderstorms.

- As for the precipitation chances this morning to afternoon
  (mainly through 6PM), most of the scattered showers and storms
  will be concentrated north of I-80.

- High temperatures will remain in the 70s to low 90s through
  Friday, with a warmup back to the mid 90s to low 100s Saturday
  through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026


Across the next three days, three distinct rounds of precipitation
(1. Wednesday morning to afternoon, 2. Wednesday night to Thursday
morning & 3. Thursday night to Friday morning), will come for the
area. It is important to note that most of the precipitation will
come form scattered showers, though a few (non-severe) storms may be
mixed within. As the forecast stands, the "mostly likely"
precipitation amounts will generally range between 0.25" to 0.75"
for locations south and west of the Tri-Cities with amounts between
0.5" to 1.5" (the bulk of the precipitation amounts) concentrated
across areas near, north and east of the Tri-Cities. Though Friday,
locations south and west of the Tri-Cities will only have a 20-40%
chance to receive at least 1" of rainfall, with the highest
probabilities (70-80% chances) reserved for locations east of HWY-
281. Though not likely widespread, the potential for at least 2+" of
precipitation (25-45% chances) will be reserved for a few isolated
far northern and eastern portions of the area. It is important to
note that the probabilities as well as most likely precipitation
ranges will continue to change as the event unfolds.

This wetter period will come as broad troughing over the eastern
U.S. becomes paired with broad ridging across much of the western
U.S., keeping the Central Plains underneath a northwest flow
regime. A few embedded shortwave disturbances within this flow,
providing pockets of generalized assent, will help to kick up
scattered shower/storms across much of the area (eastern
Wyoming/Colorado to central Nebraska/Kansas region), with storm
motions generally moving towards the east to southeast.


The 1st Round: This Morning to Afternoon

Scattered showers and a few storms, which have developed across
much of the Western Nebraska / Sandhills region early this morning,
will soon be in and around mainly central Nebraska later this
morning and this afternoon. The overall coverage of these
showers/storms will be likely the most limited compared to the other
two rounds later on Thursday and Friday. Most of north central
Kansas (only 10-20% chance of precipitation) and far southern
Nebraska locations (20-50% chance of precipitation south of HWY-6)
will remain dry today (less than 0.1"). The better potential for
showers and isolated thunderstorms will fall across areas north of I-
80 (up to 0.1-0.3" of precip). Though a few lingering showers could
linger around in the evening, the bulk of the activity should take
place before 6PM.


The 2nd Round: Overnight Tonight through Thursday Morning

A lull in precipitation is likely to last through much of the evening
and early nighttime hours with another (likely more widespread)
cluster of showers moving across the area. This wave of activity is
expected to be more widespread as most short-range guidance models
plasters virtually all of central Nebraska and north central Kansas
within the shower coverage zone. Though measurable precipitation
(>0.01") will likely cover the full area, the bulk of the
precipitation amounts (up to 0.25-0.5+") and the greatest shower
resonance times, should be more concentrated towards far northern and
eastern portions of the area.


The 3rd Round: Overnight Thursday into Friday Morning

Though much of the daytime Thursday will be dry, a third round of
scattered showers will be expected to pass through the area once
more overnight Thursday into Friday morning. A little more model
uncertainty regarding the total coverage and how long lasting these
showers will linger, brings more nuance to the amount forecast for
this period.


Besides the chances for precipitation through Friday, not
surprisingly, mostly cloudy to occasionally overcast skies will be
expected to dominate the period. These clouds will help tamper highs
down to as low as the 70s to low 90s through Friday. The "coolest"
temperatures should naturally fall across the northeast half of the
area where longer cloud residence times and more meaningful
precipitation potential will be expected. Steady 10-15 MPH winds
with occasional gusts as high as 25-30 MPH will be possible this
afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon with wind directions out of
the east to southeast at times. Winds on Friday, though generally
still out of an east-sourtheast, may be a touch lighter in terms of
speeds (gusts less than 20MPH).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Currently through this evening...

As expected, been a more pleasant afternoon across the region
today. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing a
well amplified pattern across the CONUS, with continued
northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sitting
between ridging extending from the Srn Plains northwestward into
the Pac NW and troughing running from the Hudson Bay area
southward toward the SE Coast. At the surface, the cold front
which pushed south through the area Mon-Mon night lies generally
along the KS/OK border...bringing mid-afternoon temperatures
today in the mid 80s-near 90, vs the highs around 100 we had on
Monday. In addition to the cooler temps, dewpoints are roughly
10 degrees lower...currently sitting in the mid 50s to low 60s
for most.

Had a narrow swath of isolated showers and storms gradually work
their way south across portions of south central NE last night
into this morning. This activity gradually waned with
time...with this afternoon being dry.

Expecting little change as we get into the evening hours...dry
conditions continue, with sfc high pressure sliding off to our
east, bringing more of an easterly component to the overall
light winds.

Late tonight through Thursday night...

This mid-week period continues to be the most active of this
entire 7-day forecast period, with periodic upper levels
disturbances bringing the potential for much-welcome rainfall.
As nice as it would be to say this will be a period of non-stop,
gentle rain...this will be coming in waves, with potentially
heavy rates at times.

Expecting little change overall in the upper level northwesterly
flow tonight into Wednesday...with the first of these shortwave
upper level disturbances looking to start working its way in
mainly after midnight. Models showing this wave not being an
overly strong one...with some runs showing QPF potentially more
scattered in nature, though most focus the better chances
roughly across the NNErn half of the forecast area. If anything
models have trended back on how long through the day activity
lasts...showing the brunt potentially over around midday or so,
leaving little else but some lingering isolated precip around
the rest of the afternoon.

After that lull...models showing the potential for another
couple of shortwave disturbances to push through the region.
The timing is not too unlike the first...mainly affecting the
evening/overnight-early morning hours Wed night-Thu AM and Thu
night-Fri AM, with the potential for a relative lull during a
chunk of the daytime hours. Models showing that these
disturbances are stronger, having better potential to dig a bit
further south into the ridging, allowing it to track more over
the heart of the area vs riding around the NErn edge.

Expecting some thunderstorms embedded in this mid-week
activity...and while deeper layer isn`t bad, models are in
pretty good agreement showing that instability is
lacking...keeping the overall threat for severe weather during
this period on the lower side. With more southerly flow
returning with time, expecting better moisture to gradually
return, esp. for those Wed night-early Fri AM chances...bringing
increasing PWAT values and potential for heavier rainfall
rates. Outside of the GFS/GEFS, most other models showing good
potential for a decent swath of at least 0.5" of rain by the
time it`s all said and done...mainly across the central-NErn
portions of the forecast area. ECMWF ensembles even continue to
have fairly high probabilities of 1" or more (70+
percent)...again mostly driven by that Wed night-Fri AM period.
Will see how upcoming model runs trend with the finer details.

Friday and on...

For the end of the week on through the upcoming weekend and
start of the new week...models continue to show that upper
level ridging reamplifying (to varying degrees depending on the
model), drying the period back out. Temperatures also climb back
up...after highs Wed- Thu in the 70s-80s, the heat returns by
this weekend-Mon with highs back well into the 90s-near
100...including heat index values near 105.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few showers with embedded non-severe thunderstorms will
continue to pass through the area this morning to early
afternoon. Though the bulk of the showers will be out of the
KEAR vicinity after 16z and 17z for KGRI, a small chance for
more isolated activity may remain until as late as 1z. Another
chance for showers with a few weak thunderstorms will return
overnight tonight, staring around 6-9z. There is a 30-40% chance
for MVFR ceilings at both sites after 9z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions outside of a temporary visibility reductions from
heavier showers this morning, will retain across most of the
period. Winds starting light this morning out of the east may
speed up to as high as 10-15kts this afternoon with gusts as
high as 25kts possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Stump