043
FXUS63 KGID 301951
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist through
  the evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- Seasonably cool with gradually clearing skies on Thursday.

- Low chance for thunderstorms (20%) Friday night, followed by
  better chances Saturday/Sunday (40-60%).

- Temperatures eventually return to normal (highs in the mid to
  upper 80s) by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

As of 230 PM, radar depicts scattered showers over most of
south- central Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are also developing
over northern KS where some breaks in cloud cover has helped
erode the convective inhibition. Near-term CAMs indicate that
this spotty activity will persist through the evening. Coverage
may diminish with sunset and the loss of diurnal heating, but
the HRRR does show at least a few showers/storms lasting past
midnight in eastern parts of the area.

As storms depart the area, low stratus is expected to develop
and some areas of fog are possible as well. Any fog should
dissipate pretty quickly on Thursday, but cloud cover will
likely be a bit more stubborn. Lingering cloud cover will keep
high temperatures in the mid 70s for most (possibly near 80 in
the SW areas that clear out first).

Temperatures on Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday
with stagnant zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave will bring a
chance for thunderstorms to the area Friday night, but rather
meager MUCAPE values will limit coverage and result in an
overall low severe threat.

Saturday/Sunday trend a bit warmer (still ~10 degrees below
normal), and additional shortwaves will bring off/on
thunderstorm chances to the area. This period doesn`t look
particularly concerning from a severe weather perspective, but
the CSU-MLP severe probs do highlight a widespread 5 percent
risk across the entire region.

Upper-level ridging then returns to the central CONUS for next
week, allowing for an overall drier and warmer pattern to
return. Many areas will see the 80s on Monday, and 90s may
return to portions of the area for Tuesday and next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Improving ceilings are expected this afternoon, with the one
caveat being the isolated t-storms that are starting to develop.
A PROB30 group was maintained through 01Z to account for these.

Late tonight, IFR/LIFR ceilings (along with patchy fog) are
expected to move back in. Low stratus will persist through much
of Thursday morning before slowly improving around midday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels