903
FXUS63 KGID 180016
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
716 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 10-15 degree bump up in temperatures for Friday (mid 80s to
  low 90s) with temperatures steadily rising through the
  weekend and into the first half of next week.

- Heat indices could surpass 100 degrees starting Saturday for
  a few far southern areas with heat indices in exceedance of
  100 degrees becoming widespread Monday through Wednesday.

- Afternoon to nighttime storm chances return primarily Friday
  (15-55%) and Saturday night (25-50%) with chances generally
  staying below 30% thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025


...Short Term/Tonight and Friday


Higher pressure at the surface today over the Northern Plains has
kept easterly winds on the lighter side of things. Wind directions
will continue to swivel southeast through the evening and night as
this center of higher pressure shuffles east. Meanwhile, the
frontal boundary which has provided the precipitation over the last
two days for parts of the area, has since transitioned into a
stationary front across southern KS and northern OK. This gradient
will soon be expected to switch directions and start to climb back
northeast again as a warm front. This momentum shift will be
propelled by the reestablishment of the southerly warm air advection
pattern on Friday. A few non-severe storms could break out across
our far southern and eastern areas early Friday as this front passes
back over the area, though the potential remains on the lower end
(<20% chances). Most models have ramped down this precipitation
potential some of which have pulled most of the action out of our
area entirely, therefore our confidence has additionally decreased.

During the day Friday, the main story will be the return of the heat.
Highs jump up 10-15 degrees from Thursday to the mid 80s to low 90s
as the warm air advection pattern mentioned earlier is reestablished.
This warming trend will likely continue on through the weekend and
through the first half of next week.

A few Friday evening to night storms could break out across a few of
our northern areas mainly after 8PM as another boundary drops south
from northern Nebraska. These storms are not expected to be
expansive in area or coverage, therefore, impacts may be felt
more locally than widespread. Though the chance of severe storms
is not an overly high concern, warming temperatures during the
day could boost low-level lapse rates and increase instability
some (CAPE up to 3,000- 4,000) in a few northern areas. The
absence of any notable shear keeps confidence limited. A
Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) covers a few our
our northern portions of the area.


...Long Term/Saturday through Thursday


Zonal flow aloft with a few kinks in the upper-level flow could help
stir up a few scattered storms primarily Saturday night 25-50%. The
likely highly scattered nature of these storms does create a
challenge of being able to narrow down specific locations of impacts
at this time. The best potential will more than likely be
concentrated towards the northeast. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather covers all of our Nebraska and northern half of our
Kansas areas on Saturday.

The main story beyond a few lower end storm chances (less than 30%)
next week regards the increasing heat risk. To our south, a ridge
across the central U.S. should continue to build in strength,
eventually shoving the jet further north across the Northern Plains.
This broadening of the ridge will allow temperatures to rise. Highs
beyond Sunday will primarly range the 90s to low triple digits.
Though temperatures up to 100 degrees will be possible in a few
isolated Kansas areas on both Saturday and Sunday, the coverage of
100+ degree heat broadens out across our Kansas and far southern
nebraska areas Monday through Wednesday. In addition, heat indices
in exceedance of 100 degrees will spread areawide during this time
period.

Afternoon to nighttime storm chances (15-30%) return each
day through the remainder of the forecast period. These pop-up
storms may appear more seemingly random than organized. It is still
too far out to assess the severe potential for these storm chances
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds/precipitation potential):
The vast majority of the period will likely feature sub-VFR
ceiling under low stratus/stratocumulus, with perhaps also a few
hours of sub-VFR visibility in at least light fog (especially
KEAR). However, the "exact" timing of categorical breakpoints
(both deterioration/improvement) is of only medium-confidence at
best, and could easily need adjusted by a few hours in later
TAFs. Other than perhaps some intermittent light drizzle at
times, confidence is high that legitimate shower/thunderstorm
activity will not occur. Winds tonight will prevail at-or-below
10KT as direction shifts from more easterly to more
southeasterly. Then during the day Friday direction becomes
southerly as speeds become a bit breezy, overall strongest
mainly 16-21Z, sustained around 15KT/gusts 20-23KT.

- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty:
Fairly high confidence that at least these first 6-9 hours
features persistent, high-end MVFR ceiling. However, a steady
lowering to low-end MVFR/IFR appears likely by around 09Z, and
have indicated prevailing IFR 09-16Z for now (although this
could easily end up being low-end MVFR and/or not last quite
this long). During this same timeframe, at least light fog (and
maybe even a touch of light drizzle?) is also possible. For now
have indicated MVFR visibility for KEAR and kept low-end VFR at
KGRI, but it`s not out of the question that especially KEAR
could drop lower than MVFR for a time.

As if confidence in the details of deteriorating
ceiling/visibility overnight-Fri AM is not already somewhat
low, it is even lower regarding the "exact" timing of
improvement likely to occur late Fri AM into early afternoon.
For now, have taken a "best stab" with ceiling improving to MVFR
by 16Z, low-end VFR by 19Z, and then maintaining VFR but also
scattering out by 21Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch