192
FXUS63 KGID 172002
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal threat of severe storms late this
  afternoon into tonight across most of south central and
  central Nebraska.

- There is again a marginal threat of severe storms Monday
  evening into Monday night across Nebraska and portions of
  north central Kansas.

- Heat index values Monday may get up to around 105 degrees for
  some areas mainly east of Highway 281. Elsewhere, values will
  be in the mid 90s to low 100s.

- Temperatures will get cooler around mid-week (highs in the 80s
  and low 90s) and even cooler next weekend (highs in the 70s
  and 80s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge is centered over the Southern Plains and extends
northward over north central Kansas and parts of southern Nebraska.
Winds across north central Kansas and south central and central
Nebraska are out of the south with temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
Lingering convection and cloud cover have resulted in cooler than
expected temperatures across some areas today. Dewpoint temperatures
mostly in the 70s are resulting in heat index values in the low 90s
to over 100 degrees. Lingering showers and storms will continue to
move east and northeastward this afternoon. Showers and storms are
expected to redevelop and move into the area; however, models differ
on the timing and location of the redevelopment. One hi-res model
shows storms developing and moving into Valley County around 11 pm
and moving southeastward into the overnight hours. Another hi-res
model shows storms developing during the late afternoon and early
evening hours just west of the Tri-Cities area and moving
southeastward. High CAPE values are present but wind shear is
lacking. The arrival of upper shortwaves will likely be what
triggers storm development with some of the storms having the
potential to become strong to marginally severe. The main threats
will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. Low
temperatures tonight will mostly be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Monday and Monday night...

The upper ridge will continue over the Southern Plains northward
into southern portions of Nebraska on Monday. Winds across north
central Kansas and south central and central Nebraska will be fairly
variable on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will likely be similar to
those today with dewpoint temperatures a little higher. This will
result in heat index values possibly reaching around 105 degrees
across portions of the area east of Highway 281.  Models are
indicating storms moving into the area from the west Monday evening
although there is uncertainty as to how far east the storms will
make it before dissipating. Some of these storms will again have the
potential to become strong to severe with high CAPE values present.
Wind shear will be lacking but will be higher than today. Again, the
trigger for storms will be a shortwave moving across the area. Hail
up to around quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 mph will be
the main threats. Temperatures Monday night are expected to be a
little cooler than the previous night with lows in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Showers and storms may be lingering across eastern portions of the
area Tuesday morning as the accompanying shortwave moves eastward.
Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday with the upper ridge now
centered over the Four Corners Region. High temperatures Tuesday are
expected to range from the mid/upper 80s to mid 90s. Some isolated
areas may experience heat index values near/around 100 degrees.
There will remain a slight (15% to near 25%) chance of showers and
storms for areas along and east of Highway 281 and across much of
north central Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will continue to cool Tuesday night with lows mostly in
the mid to upper 60s with a surface high present. The surface high
will continue to impact the area on Wednesday with highs ranging
from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Even cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday night with lows in the low to mid 60s. High
temperatures on Thursday are expected to be similar to those on
Wednesday. Low temperatures Thursday night will be similar to those
from the previous night. An upper trough over the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will result in a cold front moving into the area
on Friday. This will likely result in high temperatures on Friday in
the low 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures Friday night are expected
to be in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures on Saturday behind
the front are expected to be in the mid/upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A storm is expected to pass nearby GRI; otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through this afternoon. There is another
chance of storms this evening into tonight mostly between 05z
and 10z. There may be brief wind shear around 08z-09z. Winds
will generally range from the south southeast to south
southwest from 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt