775
FXUS63 KGID 071839 CCA
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
139 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond a sprinkle or brief light shower (a few near and south
  of the state line this morning), the forecast is dry until
  Monday (10-25% chance).

- Highs today and Wednesday will be in the 60s, warming up to
  the upper 70s to mid 80s over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025


Today...

We start the day off crisp and cool with temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Given the calm winds, a few areas of patchy frost may be
possible to develop within a few mainly lower lying valleys towards
the Nebraska sandhills this morning. A local patch or two of fog
also can`t be ruled out either, though its coverage should not
become widespread or dense. A few places may even feel a sprinkle or
a brief light shower this morning (10-20% chance for areas mainly
close to and south of the state line), though accumulations, if any,
should be minor and limited only to the morning hours.

Later today, winds will be expected to remain calm and variable as
higher pressure gradually sinks in from the northwest. The sun will
make an appearance as only a few clouds should be left behind from
yesterday`s showers. Temperatures today will be expected to settle
in the mid to upper 60s, peaking around 4-5PM this afternoon. Lows
tonight should not fall nearly as low at this morning, though
temperatures are still forecast to range the 40s.


The Remainder of the Forecast (through Monday)...

Synoptically speaking, The weekend trough aloft continues to move on
east, providing space for broad ridging to build in the Central U.S.
This feature will drive subsidence (sinking air), limiting the
chance for any sort of precipitation as well as provide
compressional warming. Highs as a result will gradually raise back
towards the low to mid 80s by the end of the week with only a few
limited chances of precipitation (<15% chances through Saturday).
The next best chance of precipitation does not fall until Monday (10-
25%).

Temperatures for Wednesday will feel fairly similar to today with
highs remaining in the 60s. A deck of stratus moving in from the
southwest in the afternoon should fill in much of the sky, brining
mostly cloudy conditions for a majority of the day Wednesday. A few
pockets of sprinkles could be possible, though the chance for
accumulating precipitation will be fairly unlikely (<15%). Winds
blowing out of the south (15-20MPH) on Wednesday, could become gusty
at times (gusts up to 30MPH). Gusty southerlies returning Thursday
(gusts up to 25MPH) with clearing skies will transpire an around 10
degree warmup for Thursday (mid 70s to low 80s highs). Fridays
temperates will remain in the ballpark as Thursday`s temperatures, if not a
degree or two warmer. A weak low pressure surface trough could shake
up the southerlies winds Friday, though they will be expected to
return back by Saturday.

The next major pattern change up will likely not occur until the
weekend. Pacific NW troughing is expected to gradually intensify
through the week, though this feature will likely not reach the
Plains until early next week. Precipitation chance for the weekend
as well as early next week will be highly dependent on the troughs
placement and its timing. There is just to much noise between the
individual ensemble members to accurately assess timing or intensity
of this system. As of now, the forecast points towards a potential
10 degree or so cooldown from Sunday to Monday (upper 60s to upper
70s highs) as well as a low precipitation chance Monday and Monday
night (10-25%).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This is a high confidence VFR forecast with regard to
ceiling/visibility and precipitation-free weather, with the ONLY
low-probabilty "catch" to VFR perhaps being some shallow fog
development early Wed AM that could try reducing visibility on a
localized basis (currently deemed too low of possibility for TAF
inclusion). Winds will be inconsequential through much of the
period...mainly at-or-below 6KT through at least 13Z...before
steadily/gradually increasing by late Wed morning-early afternoon
with sustained southerly speeds reaching 12-14KT/gusts around
20KT.

As for clouds, although the vast majority of the period will
likely feature little-if-any, this afternoon could eventually
see development of a FEW/SCT deck of "fair weather
stratocumulus" based around 5K ft. (this should fade away with
nightfall). Then very late in the period (mainly after 16Z),
especially KEAR could see the invasion of a BKN-OVC stratus deck
based around 5K ft., with KGRI less likely to see these clouds
arrive from the southwest until slightly beyond this TAF valid
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch