036
FXUS63 KGID 141131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered-widespread showers possible (30-60%) through the
  morning hours, decreasing this afternoon.

- Fog possible tonight ahead of a warm frontal passage

- Above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in
  the upper 70s to low 80s.

- A cold front moves through the area Thursday night bringing
  the next chance (20-45%) for rain to the area.

- Cooler/seasonable temperatures return Friday-Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Today...

Widespread low stratus is ongoing across Nebraska and Kansas,
keeping temperatures in the 50s this morning. Aloft, the area is
under southwesterly flow, with a disturbance moving through the
Plains. This disturbance has resulted in scattered showers across
portions of the  the area. These showers will continue to increase
in coverage over the next few hours. Widespread showers are expected
through the mid-late morning hours. Rain in these showers will be
fairly light, with accumulations generally below 0.25". Showers will
come to an end from southwest to northeast during the late morning-
afternoon hours. Overcast skies keeps highs on cooler side today,
ranging from the low 70s in far southern portions of the area to the
upper 50s across far northern portions of the area.

A quasi-stationary/warm front will lift north across the area during
the evening/overnight hours. Fog is favored to develop ahead of the
front tonight. Differences in the timing of the front grant some
uncertainty on the coverage/duration of fog, but areas north of I-80
are the most likely to see some fog overnight. For now, have
introduced a patchy fog mention overnight mainly across our Nebraska
counties.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Wednesday in the warm
sector of a developing low pressure system. Aided by this southerly
flow, temperatures climb back above normal on Wednesday, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be breezy across western
portions of the area, gusting 25-30mph west of Highway 183.

Warm and breezy weather continues on Thursday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to
low 80s, under partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds gusting 20-30mph
are expected across the area during the day. A cold front will push
into the area Thursday evening/night, as the upper level trough
moves into the Plains. Scattered showers are possible (20-45%) along
the front as it moves through the area.

Friday and Saturday...

Cold Air Advection (CAA) behind the front will be limited on Friday,
allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s under a noticeably drier
airmass (dewpoints in the low 40s Friday vs upper 50s on Thursday).
Mostly sunny skies and light winds result in an overall pleasant day
across the area on Friday. Saturday will be similar, with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s and mostly sunny skies.

Sunday Onwards....

The first chance for frost this fall appears possible Sunday morning
as the base of the upper level trough moves over the area. While
there remains plenty of details that need to be ironed out, if skies
are able to remain clear and winds remain light, patchy frost will
be possible. After a cool start to the day on Sunday, highs climb
into the mid 60s to low 70s. A ridge aloft moves into the area
Sunday afternoon-night, strengthening on Monday ahead of shortwave
trough that will arrive just past the forecast period. Highs on
Monday climb back above normal, in the 70s. The forecast remains dry
Friday afternoon onwards, with the next chance for rain arriving
with the early-mid week system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus will become IFR by the late morning hours. Periods
of LIFR will be possible during the late morning-early
afternoon hours in scattered showers. Have indicated this
shower/LIFR potential with PROB30 groups. Rain ends this
afternoon.

IFR ceilings continue into the overnight hours.Overnight, fog
is favored to develop ahead of a warm frontal boundary. IFR
visibility will be possible in fog. Uncertainty remains on the
density of fog, but LIFR/dense fog is possible. For now, have
included a TEMPO 2SM BR group, but lower visibility may be
needed in the future. The warm front will move north of the TAF
sites around the end of the TAF period, first at KEAR than KGRI,
with ceilings becoming MVFR then VFR, but there remains
uncertainty on the timing of the front/switch to MVFR/VFR.

Easterly winds will shift to the southeast this morning,
increasing to around 10kts. Winds decrease overnight falling to
around 5kts but will increase again south of the warm front
around the end of the TAF period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis