933
FXUS63 KGID 060654
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
154 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of storms will pass through much of central Nebraska
  and far northern Kansas this morning. A few of the stronger
  storms could carry gusty winds up to 60MPH with heavy
  rainfall.

- Though a 10-25% chance of isolated storms return overnight
  tonight, the next best precipitation chance (30-70% increasing
  towards the northwest) will come overnight Monday.

- A cold front Tuesday will take highs from the upper 80s to low
  100s through Tuesday down to the low 80s to low 90s through
  the rest of the week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026


Today...

A cluster of storms are in the process of tracking across western
Nebraska tonight. These storms will be expected to reach our western
edge (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties) between 3-4AM. Through the rest
of the morning hours, these storms should continue to slide across
much of central Nebraska and a few far northern portions of central
Kansas. Given the presence of high moisture content (PWAT values as
high as 1.5-1.75in), a few areas of heavy downpours could bring
limited flooding concerns. Though some of the first arriving storms
to the area could maintain some strong to severe characteristics (mainly
gusty winds up to just over 60MPH), limited instability (CAPE values
<2,000J/km) and weak shear (15-30kts), does not appear to be all too
favorable for maintaining severe convection for long. These storms
should gradually weaken/dissipate as they move east, gradually losing
their momentum as well.

Besides the storms this morning, the ongoing ridging pattern aloft
will continue to keep around the anomalous heat through at least
Tuesday. Highs today are forecast to once again reach the upper 80s
to low 90s across central Nebraska and the 90s across north central
Kansas. Though dewpoints will remain virtually untouched from
Saturday (mid 60s to low 70s), the slightly lower temperatures (a
few degrees lower), will keep heat index values from exceeding the
90s to low 100s. The chance for returning overnight thunderstorms
has generally decreased to only a 10-25% chance.


Monday and Tuesday..

Temperatures will be expected to maintain the 90s for Monday and
range the upper 80s to low 100s for Tuesday. Though a cold front now
looks more probable to pass on Tuesday, north central Kansas and
eastern Nebraska locations (areas for the front to reach last)
should still see heat index values range as high as 100-105 degrees.
The arrival of the front will coincide with a pattern shift aloft as
the ridge will start to become overtaken by western U.S. troughing.

The next potential for precipitation (30-70%) will come overnight
Monday as another cluster of storms looks to once again develop
across much of western to west central Nebraska. The latest high
resolution forecast guidance (HREF members) tend to keep the bulk of
the storms north and west of the Tri-Cities. This cluster of
convection overnight Monday will be in association with the
approaching upper-level disturbance as well as the strengthening of
the nocturnal low-level jet (30-45kts). Given the potential for
moderate instability (as high as 1,500-3,000J/km of MUCAPE) and
strong low-level lapse rates (8-9C/km), the potential for a few
strong to severe storms may be possible, especially across areas
north and west of the Tri-Cities (Marginal Severe Weather Outlook
areas).


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country
extending from Texas to North Dakota. An upper trough is centered
over the Pacific Northwest with another upper trough over the
northeast part of the country. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are generally out of the
south to southeast at around 5 to 15 MPH with gusts as high as 20
MPH. High temperatures today will generally range from the low 90s
to the upper 90s. Heat index values will generally range from the
mid 90s to around 106 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8 PM this evening for north central Kansas and portions of
south central and central Nebraska. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Some showers and storms may move
into/develop across north central Kansas this afternoon. Otherwise,
showers and storms may develop (up to around a 50% chance) or move
into western portions of the forecast area later tonight (beginning
around 4 AM). There is a low risk of strong to marginally severe
storms this afternoon into this evening and again tonight with hail
up to quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Additional development and eastward expansion of showers and storms
is expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Additional showers and
storms may again develop Sunday evening across portions of the area.
High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly cooler (by
around 2-3 degrees) than today with upper level heights decreasing
slightly. Heat index values on Sunday are expected to range from the
lower 90s to around 102 degrees. South to southeast winds are
expected at around 5 to 15 MPH with gusts as high as 20 to 30 MPH
during the afternoon. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be
similar to the previous night. Temperatures will warm up a little on
Monday from the previous day as a surface trough strengthens across
the area. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the low 90s to
near 100 degrees. Heat index values are expected to be in the mid
90s to around 104 degrees. Winds will increase Monday afternoon out
of the south to around 15 to 30 MPH with gusts up to near 40 MPH in
some areas. Low temperatures Monday night (upper 60s to upper 70s)
will be warmer with mostly cloudy skies and higher wind speeds.
Showers and storms may impact parts of the area beginning Monday
evening/night in advance of a cold front (up to a 60% chance). Some
of these storms may become strong to severe.

A cold front is expected to move into the area on Tuesday with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to around 101 degrees. Heat
index values from around Highway 6 and southward may range from
around 100 to 105 degrees. Low temperatures Tuesday night are
expected to range from the low 60s to the low/mid 70s. A surface
high will be across the area on Wednesday with high temperatures in
the low 80s to low 90s. Highs on Thursday will be similar to those
on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm up some on Friday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area. Shower and storm chances
continue Tuesday through Friday with the highest chances Tuesday
into Wednesday (up to 70% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Storms currently situated across western Nebraska tonight will
later near the KEAR terminal around 9-11z and the KGRI terminal
around 10-12z. It is uncertain how strong these storms will be
once they arrive as models show these storms to be in the
stages of dissipation around their time of arrival. The leading
edge of these storms may bring a brief 1-2 hours period of
westerly wind gusts up to 25 to 40kts. Heavy rain accompanying
these storms could drop visibilities down to as low as 1-3
miles with cloud bases nearing 3,000ft. MVFR conditions from the
lower ceilings and rainfall induces visibility reductions
should remain fairly short-lived (<2 hours).

Beyond the morning storms, VFR conditions are likely to retain
after 15z with skies mostly clearing through the afternoon
hours. Winds 5-15kts will mainly stay out of a southeasterly
direction beyond a possible 2-5 hour influence from any morning
storms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump