884
FXUS63 KGID 020728
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
228 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect until 8am.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 70s.

- Next chance for rain (15-35%) arrives Monday afternoon/evening along
  a cold front with more widespread chances (40-60%) Monday
  night-Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Under mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures have dropped
into the 30s this morning. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper
20s for northwestern portions of the area in the Freeze Warning, and
around freezing for areas in the Frost Advisory (both headlines in
effect until 8am). Aloft the area is under northerly flow with a
ridge centered over the Rockies and a trough over the Midwest. After
a cold start to the day, temperatures will quickly climb into the
60s to low 70s. Sunny skies and light winds (gusts 20mph or less)
make for a very pleasant day overall. Seasonable/near normal
temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

A weak cold front from a passing disturbance pushes a cold front
through the area Sunday morning as winds shift to the north behind
the front. While the forecast remains dry, it`s possible that a few
scattered develop behind the frontal passage Sunday morning
along/north of an Ord-Osceola line. Otherwise another pleasant day
is expected with highs in the 70s to around 80 in north central
Kansas.

Seasonably warm weather continues on Monday with highs in the 70s
and 80s. A cold front moves into the area Monday afternoon, bringing
the next chance for rain. Scattered showers and storms are possible
(15-35%) along this front, with more widespread chances (40-60%)
arriving behind the front Monday night. The second half of the
forecast remains on track as widespread cloud coverage and
precipitation chances keep temperatures seasonably cool on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temperatures climb back towards/above normal by the
end of the forecast period as northwesterly flow builds over the
area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly "major" changes to speak of, with the Key Messages
  above giving a decent overview of the highlights.

- That being said, on the more minor side of things, high temps
  have trended down very slightly for Sunday...but a bit farther
  out they have trended a good 2-5 degrees cooler than previous
  forecast for Wed-Thurs, as the mid-week cool down looks a
  little more pronounced than before.

- All in all though, nothing all that unusual about the next
  week for early May, as on positive notes we: 1) appear to be
  lacking in severe thunderstorm concerns (will need to keep an
  eye on Monday though)...2) Do not currently foresee any
  critical fire weather issues. On a negative note,
  unfortunately rainfall does not look abundant, but hopefully
  at least SOME places can pick up at least 0.25" with the
  intermittent chances mainly Mon-Wed, and the lack of "higher
  end heat" should also help keep soil moisture evaporation to a
  relative minimum.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. May 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM:
Overall, certainly no big surprises today. As expected, isolated
to scattered light showers and a FEW weak thunderstorms have
materialized over our KS counties, while north of the state line
a smattering of sprinkles have developed at least on radar (most
of which probably not reaching the ground given the dry low-
levels).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm a highly amplified
pattern over the U.S., with our Central Plains region residing
under north-northwesterly flow...directed between a pronounced
high pressure ridge extending over several northwestern states,
and an expansive trough dominated much of the Midwest/northeast
states and anchored by a closed low over southeast Canada. On
the smaller scale, a compact shortwave trough is currently
diving due southward out of SD into NE, and is helping provide
lift to get our spotty showers/sprinkles going.

At the surface, a modest pressure gradient emanating southward
from a roughly 1020 millibar high centered over eastern SD,
along with diurnal/daytime mixing, is promoting somewhat-breezy
north winds across our area...commonly sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts
20+ MPH. High temperatures are on track to top out between
60-66 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA.


- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight):
Through at least nightfall (9-10 PM), isolated-to-scattered rain
showers (and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms) will continue in
our south (especially KS), while mainly spotty sprinkles will
continue northward into our Nebraska counties...driven by a
combination of weak instability (CAPE up to a few hundred J/kg)
and upper forcing/lift from the aforementioned wave diving
directly southward through our area. Have extended these fairly
minor precip chances through at least 10 PM especially
near/south of the KS border, with some models suggesting they
may need extended a touch longer and also expanded a bit farther
north. However, no matter what, confidence is fairly high that
even our extreme southern zones should be rain-free no later
than 11pm-Midnight, with skies then clearing efficiently from
north-to-south.


- LATE TONIGHT (post-midnight):
As surface high pressure settles directly over the heart of our
CWA in the presence of clear skies and light/variable direction
breezes (mainly under 5 MPH), the stage will be set for a fairly
ideal radiational cooling situation. As a result, slightly
"undercut" most available/guidance for overnight lows, with most
places forecast to bottom out between 30-34 degrees, and some
upper 20s most favored mainly in our far north-northwest (mainly
north of a Lexington-Greeley line). There is high confidence
that the vast majority of our CWA will see fairly widespread
frost development. As for frost/freeze "headlines", due in part
to neighboring WFO`s North Platte/Goodland opting to "join the
headline game" now that it`s May, decided to do BOTH a Freeze
Warning for roughly the northwest 1/3 of our CWA (counties most
favored to see low temps ~ 30 degrees or slightly colder), while
issuing another Frost Advisory for the remainder of our CWA
(very-slightly-freezing low temps as cold as 30-32 possible in
a few spots, but with most places likely dropping no colder than
32-36 and making frost the MAIN concern instead of a "true"
freeze".


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Following the seasonably-chilly/frosty start, a fairly pleasant
and all-but-guaranteed dry day is on tap, with temperatures
warming rather steadily in response to the onset of steady (but
not very strong) west-southwesterly breezes (generally sustained
10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH during the afternoon). High temps were
changed very little and are aimed roughly 10 degrees warmer than
today (most places topping out 70-74 degrees).


- SATURDAY NIGHT:
Continued dry weather and clear/mostly clear skies, with by far
the main difference versus tonight being milder low
temperatures. For much of the night, southerly to westerly
breezes will average 5-15 MPH, which along with the warmer low-
level airmass will keep lows 10+ degrees warmer than
tonight...with most places aimed 40-46 degrees.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
The vast majority of our CWA likely stays dry through these 24
hours, but especially our extreme northern CWA could be brushed
by a few sprinkles/light showers as a weak disturbance passes by
in northwesterly flow aloft (right now we have some 20% chances
in our far north during the evening-overnight). During the
daytime, a weak cold front will pass southward through our CWA,
turning winds northerly-to-easterly at around 10 MPH with
slightly higher gusts. Temperature-wise, highs did come down
very slightly from previous forecast (1-2 degrees) due in part
to these weak front, but we`re still calling for a range from
low-mid 70s north...to upper 70s-low 80s south (most 80+
readings in our KS zones).


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Our weather looks to turn a bit more active again, as increased
forcing/upper lift from disturbances dropping down from the
north and also riding in from the west (primary upper lows
centered over the Great Lakes region and also southern CA/AZ
region) will team up to drive a somewhat stronger surface cold
front southward through our region...sparking increased chances
for at least isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. There
is still some model discrepancy on exactly WHEN this front
passes through (will it be afternoon or evening?), but there are
hints that at least modest instability will build ahead of it,
with early projections from NAM/GFS suggesting anywhere from
500-1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE getting into especially the
southern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. This could bring a threat for at
least a few strong (MAYBE marginally severe?) storms to mainly
our southern-southeast CWA Monday afternoon and/or evening, so
this will bear watching and it will be interesting to see if SPC
opts to assign a formal Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on
tonight`s upcoming Day 3 outlook. At any rate, once we get past
Monday evening, cooler/more stable air enters our area, keeping
any precip into Tuesday as more benign rain/rain showers.
Temperature-wise, we`re currently calling for a 15-20 degree
drop in high temps between Monday (most areas mid 70s-low 80s)
and Tuesday (near-60). IF skies happen to clear enough (still
very much a question mark), perhaps we have some frost concerns
for Tuesday night especially in our far western/northern
counties.


- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
In the big picture aloft, we look to reside under mainly
northwesterly flow aloft, and thus subject to occasional weak
waves and at least spotty rain shower/weak thunderstorm
potential. Officially, our only mentionable (20+%) rain chances
are right away Wednesday as the main larger scale trough axis
swings through. However, despite our going dry forecast for
Thurs-Fri, the latest ECMWF/GFS suggests it`s no guarantee to
stay this way. Temperature-wise, a steady warm-up is currently
projected over the course of these 3 days...with highs rising
from upper 50s/near-60 on Wednesday...to mid 60s-low 70s
Thursday...to mid-upper 70s Friday. Like Tues night-Wed AM, Wed
night-Thurs AM currently bear watching for possible frost or
marginal freeze possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (near 100%) in VFR conditions through the
period. Mostly clear skies will prevail, with only a few high
clouds returning Saturday evening.

Light and variable winds turn to the west for Saturday, and then
to the SSW for Saturday evening. A period of LLWS is possible
Saturday night, but this is expected to begin after 06Z Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ062>064-
     073>077-082>087.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060-061-072.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Mangels