327
FXUS63 KGID 091938
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
238 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible tonight behind a cold frontal passage, but widespread
  or dense fog is not expected.

- Above normal temperatures (70s & 80s) continue through the weekend,
  warmest on Sunday.

- Low chances for precipitation (15-25%) Friday and Saturday
  night north of I-80, with more widespread rain chances on
  Tuesday (15-25%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Today/Tonight...

A eroding stratus deck is centered along a Broken Bow-Lexington-
McCook line. Under the stratus, temperatures have been cooler, in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Further east where sunshine has prevailed,
temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly
winds have been breezy at times along/east of Highway 281, gusting
20-25mph.

Aloft, a ridge currently sits over the Great Plains. Tonight, a
shortwave trough and associated surface low over Manitoba will dive
into the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through the area. Along
and behind this cold front, patchy fog is possible as the front
slides southeast across the area. Widespread dense fog appears
unlikely but visibility around 1 mile is possible at times.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s (northwest) to low 60s
(southeast).


Friday daytime...

Any ongoing fog clears/mixes out after sunrise Friday morning with
sunny skies returning to the area. Despite the cold frontal passage,
another seasonably warm day is expected across the area as
temperatures climb into the 70s. Northerly winds will shift to the
east during the day, remaining fairly light with gusts of 10-15mph.

Friday night and Saturday...

A passing weak disturbance will result in the development of
scattered showers/storms over northeastern CO that move into the
area Friday night/Saturday morning. There remains some spread in
model guidance for how widespread these showers/storms will be,
but northern/northwestern portions of the area have the highest
chance (15-25%) to see rain.

The ridge aloft will shift into the Midwest on Saturday as a trough
moves into the Rockies, placing the area under southwesterly flow.
At the surface a warm front is expected to gradually shift north
during the day. Saturday`s highs will vary depending on the timing
of the frontal passage, ranging from the upper 70s-low 80s in the
south/southwest to the low 70s in the north/northeast. Breezy
southeasterly winds are expected during the day, strongest south of
the front, gusting 20-35mph. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected
north of the warm front, with mostly sunny skies south of the warm
front. A few scattered showers/storms could develop along the warm
front Saturday evening (15-25% PoPs), clipping far northern portions
of the area.

Sunday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday ahead of an
approaching trough. Sunday is expected to be the warmest day in the
forecast period as highs soar into the mid-upper 80s, around 15-20
degrees above their climatological norms (upper 60s to low 70s). A
cold front will move into western portions of the area during the
afternoon, which could keep highs a few degrees cooler than
currently forecast west of Highway 183. Southerly winds gusting 25-
35mph are expected ahead of the front, with winds shifting to the
north behind the front, remaining breezy at 20-25mph. Isolated
thunderstorm development remains possible (15-20%) along the cold
front Sunday night as it moves south through the area, but models
continue to trend PoPs down and keep storms isolated if they develop
at all.

Monday Onwards...

Monday will be noticeably cooler behind the cold frontal passage,
with highs in the 60s, a ~ 20 degree difference compared to Sunday!
A passing disturbance moves into the plains Monday night-Tuesday
bringing the next chance (15-25%) for rain to the area. There
remains uncertainty in ensemble guidance for how widespread this
rain will be, but at least a few scattered storms remain possible
during the day on Tuesday. Cloudy skies and rain chances will keep
Tuesday cool across the area, with northern portions of the area
struggling to climb out of the 50s. Temperatures climb back above
normal at the end of the forecast period as ridging-southwesterly
flow builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The eastern edge of a slowly eroding MVFR stratus deck sits
over KEAR. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly it
erodes, but VFR conditions are expected to return by the mid-
late afternoon hours. Have indicated this uncertainty with a
TEMPO VFR group through 20z. Overnight a cold front moves
through the area, with patchy fog possible behind front. The
most likely time for fog will be around sunrise, though the
position, duration, and density of fog (MVFR vs IFR vs LIFR) in
any area remains uncertain. Have indicated this potential with a
TEMPO MVFR visibility group from 09-13z Friday.

Southerly winds currently gusting around 20kts will gradually
decrease this afternoon, becoming light and variable this
evening. A cold front moves through the area overnight, with
winds remaining variable, but becoming northerly by sunrise on
Friday. Winds increase slightly after sunrise with sustained
winds of 8-10kts by the end of the taf period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis