571
FXUS63 KGID 192338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon,
  primarily south of KS/NE state line...although a rogue storm
  cannot be entirely ruled out further north. The strongest
  storms could produce gusts over 50 MPH.

- Spotty showers/storms are possible again Wednesday afternoon,
  although most areas are expected to remain dry and severe
  weather is not expected.

- Additional thunderstorm chances (10-30%) arrive late Thursday
  night into Friday morning, with better chances (30-60%) for
  the entire area Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Noticably cooler weather arrives early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Scattered thunderstorms persist over central and eastern Kansas
in response to a remnant MCV. Radar trends and latest CAM
guidance indicate that isolated to widely scattered storms could
redevelop northward into our area. This will occur primarily in
northern KS, although there are some updrafts attempting to
organize over Furnas county, and some CAMs show development as
far north as Ord. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but
downburst winds in the 50-60 MPH range are possible in the
weakly-sheared environment.

Tonight, there is potential for another round of fog to develop
as light/variable winds turn to the east by sunrise. That said,
the latest HRRR (which handled the Tuesday AM fog pretty well)
is not showing much more than localized valley fog.

Wednesday will be another fairly warm and muggy day, although
winds may be a touch stronger to provide a little relief from
heat index values in the high 90s. The warm/moist airmass may
allow for some diurnally-driven thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, but weak shear should keep storms disorganized and
short-lived.

The daytime on Thursday should be warm and dry with strong
ridging over the central and western CONUS. A shortwave pushing
into the northern Plains may allow a few storms to creep into
northern parts of our area late Thursday night into Friday
morning.

Exact details for Friday remain uncertain, but we will be
looking for scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in
the late afternoon/evening/overnight along a stalled frontal
boundary. For now, this appears to be our most organized chance
for rain/thunderstorms across the area. The severe risk does not
look particularly concerning at this time (5% per CSU-MLP), but
this will be highly dependent on mesoscale features in the near
term.

Saturday trends cooler behind this front. The daytime and early
evening appear to be mostly dry, but some storms could roll in
from the high Plains late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in a
continued cool pattern (and off/on precip chances) as we begin
next week. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to only
reach the 70s...only slightly warmer than our LOW temperatures
Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Patchy fog is possible during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. There remains uncertainty on how widespread the fog
will be as well as how much it will impact the TAF sites (if at
all). Have maintained a 5SM BR group during the time when fog is
most likely to develop. If fog develops/impacts the TAF sites,
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Any lingering fog is expected
to clear during the mid- morning hours on Wednesday as
visibilities/ceilings improve. SCT cumulus around 030 is favored
to develop during the afternoon hours on Wednesday but MVFR
ceilings are not expected at this time.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis