759
FXUS63 KGID 242331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
531 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries possible this evening mainly north and west of
  the Nebraska Tri-Cities. No accumulation is expected.

- A light dusting of snow is possible on Wednesday. The chance
  for 1" or more of snow is unlikely, with probabilities only
  10-30% for an inch or more of snow (highest north of
  Interstate 80).

- Well below normal temperatures arrive Thanksgiving weekend.
  Single digit low temperatures are possible, and daytime highs
  may remain below freezing in spots. Despite the much chillier
  airmass, these temperatures are still 10-15 degrees warmer
  then record cold temperatures for the date.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front tracked southeast across the local area this
morning. This front...accompanied by gusty northerly winds...
helped to break up the dense fog that formed in spots, with
mostly sunny skies being observed by mid-morning for most
locations. Clouds have since started to filter in from the
north, rapidly approaching the I-80 corridor this afternoon.
Expect this cloud cover to eventually encompass the entire
forecast area by early evening, with even a few flurries
possible mainly north of the interstate as the associated upper
level wave tracks by. As of this afternoon, some very light
returns can be seen on radar across northeastern Nebraska, but
thus far, flurries have not moved into the local area. If they
do, it will likely be during the early to mid-evening hours as
depicted in HRRR and other meso-scale models.

While cloudy skies and breezy north winds will continue across
the local area overnight...expect clearing skies during the
morning hours to allow for ample sunshine to return again Monday
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, cold air advection behind the
aforementioned front will make for a seasonably cool afternoon,
with many locations likely struggling to reach 40 degrees. At
the same time, winds should be on the decrease through the
afternoon hours as the pressure gradient continues to weaken
across the local area in response to high pressure pushing in
from the northwest.

Behind todays cold front and associated upper level shortwave,
brief ridging aloft is expected for Tuesday, which should allow
afternoon temperatures to climb to near 50 degrees across the
local area, or about 10 degrees above normal for late November.
This will likely mark the warmest day of the stretch, as yet
another cold front will bring a small chance for snow and cooler
temperatures back to the area on Wednesday. This does not look
like a significant snowfall event, with very meager chances for
even a dusting of snow across much of the local area.

Thereafter...northwesterly flow will establish itself aloft
across the center of the county with a cold Canadian airmass
forecast to slide into the plains late next weekend. While again
the chances for precip look minimal, much cooler air will
filter in across the local area with high temperatures possibly
not climbing above freezing next Sunday with lows both Sunday
and Monday morning potentially falling into the single digits.
Thanks to the mild temperatures to start November (through the
23rd of the month, average temperatures for the month are about
5 degrees above normal), this will likely feel quite cold,
despite being a far cry from record cool temperatures for the
date.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Stratus clouds are expected to persist over the area this
evening and into the overnight hours as steady northerly flow
advects cloud cover south, with MVFR CIGS around 1.2 KFT to 1.5
KFT. CIGS should improve during the early morning hours Monday
with VFR conditions returning by around 25/10Z at both
terminals, and clear skies by 25/15Z. Winds will be from the
north to northwest through the period...remaining steady above
15 kts with gusts of near 25 kts overnight. Winds will
eventually decrease to around 8 kts during the afternoon hours
Monday.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford