816
FXUS63 KGID 102350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions persist area wide tomorrow,then for
  one more day along and south of the state line Wednesday. Peak
  heat index values of 100-105F expected. Far southern areas may
  get some relief from a southerly breeze, but most will have
  only a light wind.

- Thunderstorms will attempt to roll into the area from the west
  late this evening and overnight, but will likely be on a
  weakening trend. There is a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe.

- Better chances for storms arrive Wednesday evening, and an
  overall more active weather pattern is expected for the second
  half of the week and into the weekend. There is a marginal to
  slight (level 1-2 of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday.

- Temperatures taper off to more seasonable levels with the
  arrival of the more active pattern (and more clouds), with
  mainly 70s and 80s for highs Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Once morning fog burned off we quickly transitioned to another
warm/hot and steamy afternoon. Mid to even upper 70s dew points
are common across south central Nebraska, which when combined
with air temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s is still
leading to heat indices around or just above 100 degrees.
Further south into KS, drier air has worked in from the SW, but
this is just helping to raise air temperatures even further into
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. So no matter where one is
in the CWA this afternoon, it certainly still feels like summer.

Main question this evening surrounds the ability for convection
to maintain itself as it rolls E off the High Plains,
potentially into our far W zones as early as 02Z-03Z. Most of
the recent CAM guidance weakens this activity pretty quickly
after sunset thanks to rapidly increasing ML CINH. However, its
possible that a strengthening low level jet (up to 35-45kt)
could help offset or delay some of this weakening. IF storms can
maintain some intensity, the main threat would be gusty winds of
50-60 MPH, and would likely remain mainly W through NW of the
Tri-Cities. Activity should weaken to mainly just lingering
showers by around and esp. after midnight. Unfortunately, this
doesn`t appear to be a big rain-maker, even for the areas that
do get hit, owing to the expected weakening trend.

Another question for the overnight period will be if we see yet
another round of fog. Neither deterministic models or ensembles
have an overly strong/obvious signature for fog tonight...but
simple pattern recognition (light winds/high BL RH) and
persistence from past few days suggests it`s certainly a
possibility. Guidance that does hint at fog suggests it would be
mainly N of I-80. Will obviously need to monitor these trends
throughout the evening and overnight, but for now, have left out
of the HWO and just included some fog mention in the grids.

Pattern begins to break down on Wednesday as the strong upper
high centered over the Four Corners region now shifts E and
reorients over the Deep South. This pattern shift will likely
result in more active zonal or even SW flow aloft, with a parade
of weak disturbances supporting frequent rounds of convection
that initially develops along the high plains during the
afternoon, then shifts E during the evening/night. Moisture will
likely NOT be a limiting factor as a SE CONUS upper ridge in
August often allows for monsoonal moisture to be pulled well N
then E onto the Plains to interact with the frequent upper
disturbances. There will likely be at least SOME severe weather
and heavy rain potential in this type of pattern nearly daily
through the weekend, and this begins with the entire forecast
area being in either a marginal or slight risk (level 1-2 of 5)
on Wednesday.

With the more frequent rain chances will also come increased
cloud cover and gradually cooler temperatures. We probably
won`t be able to shake the humidity (still have a lot of
evapotranspiration happening each day), but the upper pattern
described above should shunt any significant low level thermal
ridging further S, allowing for mainly 70s and 80s for Friday
and into the weekend during any daytime dry breaks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Wind shear is expected between 04z and 09z. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely move through the area between 04z and
08z. There is a low chance (around 20%) of fog development
tonight but chances are too low to include at this time.
Southeast winds will back toward the south then southwest then
north then east then southeast by 21z Tuesday. Wind speeds will
generally be between 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Schuldt