222
FXUS63 KGID 070527
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1227 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...06z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase across the area this afternoon through
  Thursday. Chances (up to near 80%) will be highest across north
  central Kansas.

- Warmer temperatures with widespread highs in the 80s are
  expected beginning Friday with the precipitation out of the
  area.

- The coolest day will be Wednesday with much of north central
  Kansas in the 60s. The warmest day is Monday with some places
  reaching the upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Today and tonight...

A big upper trough is over most of the western half of the country
with two upper lows present. One upper low is over Nevada and the
other is over New Mexico/West Texas. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are out of the east with a
surface trough across the area and temperatures mainly in the 70s. A
band of showers, associated with an upper low, across southern and
western Kansas is drifting northward. These showers will move
northward later this afternoon into tonight as the upper low over
West Texas moves northward. Precipitation chances will increase
first across north central Kansas later this afternoon then into
south central and central Nebraska by this evening. Rain chances
through this evening will be highest across north central Kansas
with chances up to near 80%. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

The upper low will mostly be over Kansas on Wednesday with most of
the rain and storms remaining across Kansas. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas Wednesday afternoon generally range from 20% to
around 75% with chances increasing to the south. Temperatures on
Wednesday are expected to be the coolest in Kansas due to more rain
showers and cloud cover and warmer in Nebraska. Highs Wednesday will
range from the low 60s to mid 70s. Rain chances across the forecast
area decrease Wednesday night to 15% to around 30%. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will range from the mid 40s to low 50s. Rain chances
will generally range from 15% to around 45% on Thursday with high
temperatures in the 70s. Rain chances are expected to come to an end
Thursday night with low temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 40s.

Friday through Monday...

On Friday, an upper ridge will extend from the Desert Southwest to
the central/northern Plains. A trough over the Northeast will extend
southwest over Oklahoma and Texas. South central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas will be in between these two
features. Winds across the area on Friday will be mostly light and
variable with a surface high over Iowa. Temperatures will warm up on
Friday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with sunny to mostly
skies. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 40s to low
50s with winds switching from the southeast to the south and
southwest. Winds will switch back to the southeast on Saturday with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Southerly winds
are expected Saturday night with low temperatures in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Temperatures will be similar or a degree or two warmer
on Sunday with sunny skies and winds increasing out of the south.
Low temperatures Sunday night will mainly be in the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures will warm up into the 80s on Monday with some places
expected to reach the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Despite the prevailing overcast skies, VFR conditions are
expected to retain with 80% confidence. Cloud bases may drop as
low as 5-6kft, with a secondary and more filled deck near
10-15kft.

Scattered showers tonight should stay south of the terminals
(70% confidence) with a few highly scattered mainly showers (a
few weak thunderstorms possible) Wednesday afternoon. Confidence
remains low (30%) resulting in only a PROB30 group this cycle.

Winds will remain calm tonight, picking up to 10-15kts during
the day with gusts as high as 18-22kts. Directions will stay out
of the east to northeast. As with the past few nights, light to
variable winds will return overnight Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump