032
FXUS63 KGID 101936
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
236 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will weaken along a
  boundary east of Highway 281 in Nebraska this afternoon.

- Still some rain chance tonight, mainly across north central
  Kansas, but over rain chances tonight look lower.

- Turning dry Tuesday and warmer by weeks end with some risk
  for rain/storms very late in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Well, by the time I get this AFD out, the excitement of the
afternoon will all be over. A weak boundary dropping south
northeast of Grand Island sparked some isolated showers
which then spawned a couple funnel clouds in this weak flow.
However, within last 20 minutes outflow from the showers has
pushed south and now weakened everything. Nonetheless, we will
carry some very small rain chances the next 3 hours east of
Grand Island/Hastings should things perk up again, and keep a
mention of funnel cloud potential in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. All that will be memory in the not to distant future.

Convection off the Front Range is already forming with the
advance of an upper wave east. However, unlike the last two
nights, the main action will be well south of north central
Kansas and south central Nebraska, which makes total sense
as last night`s convection pushed the boundary farther south.
Southern sections of the area, mainly Kansas, could still catch
some showers and a non-severe storm or two, but precipitation
chances are lower than previous forecasts, and may need to go
down even more. We currently have a comfortable low of 60 for
Ord, but that might even drop into the upper 50s there. Even
though there is still a humid-feel outside, it is not as humid
as recent days thankfully.

Regarding Monday, with anticipation the best rain chances
tonight will be well south, that led me to lower precipitation
chances a bit tomorrow morning. Can`t rule out some showers
lingering or even reforming on the fringes of the convective
complex and with the upper wave pushing through, but coverage
seems more sparse. Clouds will be around and help hold
temperatures down a bit below normal again. Interestingly,
nearly all the CAMS develop some isolated, afternoon
showers/storms along a weak boundary and near the slow to move
upper support. Decided to add small chances to areas north of
Grand Island but some refinement will be needed with time as the
coverage area could broaden in scope.

The longer term forecast/trends have been well documented
recently, with rising heights in the mid/late week and thus
rising temperatures. Apparent temperatures (Heat Index) will be
around 100 degrees by Friday and Saturday across the forecast
area. The week ahead also brings light winds through Wednesday
morning but a more steady breeze with gusts over 20 mph during
the daytime thereafter. Honestly speaking, the next chance for
more widespread rain/storm activity is probably next Saturday
night, or more likely Sunday night/Monday as frontal boundary
sagging into the area and an upper wave pushing through the
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR is the forecast through this evening with light winds
and few-sct cumulus and some highs level cirrus. Tonight,
one more wave will spark some isolated showers and maybe
a thunderstorms to the west/south, which could migrate into
KEAR after midnight. Near sunrise, lower clouds with MVFR
ceilings and some light fog (3-5 miles visibility) will
likely settle in for a while. Winds remain light throughout
the forecast, and somewhat variable in direction overnight
and early Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz