007
FXUS63 KGID 051136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area to the east this
  morning, with only a small chance for a thunderstorm across
  areas east of Highway 81 and across portions of north central
  Kansas this afternoon and evening. An isolated strong to
  marginally severe storm with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will
  be possible with this afternoons and evenings activity.

- A better chance for thunderstorms returns to the local area
  both Sunday and Monday. A slight risk for a severe
  thunderstorm and localized flooding with be possible both
  days.

- Additional periodic thunderstorm chances will be possible
  across at least parts of the local area through the end of
  next week. The focus of this daily activity will be primarily
  during the afternoon through evening hours each day.

- Near normal temperatures (upper 80s/low 90s) are expected to
  prevail for through at least next Thursday, with a modest
  cooldown into the lower to middle 80s possible next Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed and tracked east
across the local area overnight. Most of this activity has been
fairly progressive, with some area automated rain gauges
recording anywhere from a tenth or two of an inch of
precipitation to just over an inch of rainfall over the past
couple of hours. This activity should continue to track east
and exit the area during the morning hours.

Later today, expect some potential thunderstorm redevelopment
with a few showers and thunderstorms possible mainly east of
highway 281 and across north central Kansas this afternoon and
evening along the lingering boundary, but this activity will
likely not be severe or widespread...and in fact, mostly sunny
skies and seasonably mild temperatures can be expected across
the majority of the local area this afternoon.

Across the upper levels of the atmosphere, a west northwesterly
flow pattern aloft with multiple embedded disturbances is
expected to persist through the end of next week and into next
weekend. This will result in near seasonable temperatures each
day along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the local area. While severe weather is more
questionable, SPC has included western portions of the area
(mainly west of 281) in a slight risk for severe weather for
both Sunday and Monday, as there will be plenty of instability
in place and forcing from passing upper level disturbances. At
this point, the better period for severe weather appears to be
Sunday evening into Monday morning when a stronger wave will
cross the area.

Thereafter...severe weather chances and timing of thunderstorms
in general becomes more murky, with the overall best chance for
daily thunderstorm activity coming during the late afternoon
through evening hours each day...with not all areas expected to
see thunderstorms each day, but for some thunderstorm activity
expected to be around the forecast area each day...likely
continuing off and on into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period as
last nights storms continue to push eastward.

Expect skies to continue to clear across the region this morning
with only a few mid level clouds anticipated through the
afternoon hours. Light and variable winds this morning will
become predominantly northerly this afternoon...with some gusts
to near 20 KTS not out of the question. There may be an
afternoon or evening thunderstorm to the east and south of the
terminals later today, but neither terminal is anticipated to be
impacted.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi