220
FXUS63 KGID 210539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance (10-20%) for isolated shower/t-storm continues
  this afternoon/evening. Most will stay dry and severe weather
  is NOT expected.

- Dry and warm on Thursday. Temperature and Heat Index are
  expected to be similar to the past couple days.

- Spotty showers/t-storm chances during the day on Friday. More
  widespread chances arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Significantly cooler air arrives for next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Visible satellite shows cumulus continuing to blossom over
eastern and central NE/KS. An isolated shower or storm remains
possible this afternoon and evening, although near-term CAMs
have backed off on the coverage. Anything that does manage to
develop develop should be short lived, slow-moving, and non-
severe thanks to a lack of deep-layer shear.

Thursday`s forecast is similar to today, with only slightly
stronger southerly winds. Dry conditions are expected during the
day on Thursday, and anything that develops Thursday night are
favored to remain to our north.

A shortwave and associated surface front move into the
norther/central Plains on Friday, bringing low chances for
showers and storms to the area. Better chances arrive Friday
night into Saturday morning in response from forcing from a
deeper upper low moving into the upper Midwest. Most of the area
is in a Day 3 Marginal Risk, primarily for this overnight
timeframe.

A few showers and storms could linger in the vicinity of the
front Saturday morning. With northerly winds and decreasing
moisture, dry conditions are expected to return for the
afternoon hours.

Continued southwest flow will lead to off/on chances for
thunderstorms through early next week (especially southern and
western areas). That said, the signal isn`t very
consistent/strong and most of the global ensembles (GEFS, GEPS,
AIFS) favor near to below-normal precip totals during this
timeframe. More notable will be the significant cooldown. High
temperatures on Monday could struggle to reach 70 degrees in
some areas, and there is a low chance (20-30%) that morning lows
dip into the 40s!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with south to
southeasterly winds less than 10 KTs. Could see some fog develop
towards daybreak, but models focus this potential well east of
the terminals and did not include a mention. As a result, clear
skies and good VSBYs are anticipated throughout.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi