Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
556 FXUS65 KGGW 292028 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 228 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Seasonably warm to hot and mainly dry weather is expected over the next few days. 2) A more active weather pattern is expected to emerge for the second half of the week extending into the Independence Day holiday period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: With surface high pressure in place over the next couple of days, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected along with building warmth. The extent of the warmth as currently forecast and looking at most ensemble guidance falls short of any heat headlines for Wednesday and Thursday. However, this will be the hottest so far for the season after relatively mild conditions most of June. The 50th-75th percentile of the NBM indicates potential for highs of 100-105 these days. Ensembles show upper ridging sliding east ahead of the next low pressure system for the midweek. This will set up a more active weather pattern with increased low-level moisture heading into the 4th of July holiday. In short, expect daily chances for thunderstorms to return in the afternoon and evening hours starting Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM was used for the forecast population with minimal deviation needed to capture expected trends. Confidence is high on mainly warm and dry weather through the next couple of days, while currently low for the occurrence of triple digit heat midweek. Confidence is described as growing on increasing chances for thunderstorms to return each day starting midweek. && .AVIATION... Flight Category: VFR Discussion: High pressure across the area will mean mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with little to no daytime convective development. Gusty northwest winds will subside this evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow