486
FXUS65 KGGW 020808
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
208 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
  early next week. Some storms may be severe or produce heavy
  rain.

- There is a marginal chance for severe thunderstorms south of
  highway 200 late this afternoon. The main threat will be wind.

- Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly below normal.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
High Precipitable Water values of around and inch and a quarter in
the area have been the culprit for the heavy rains the past couple
days. This will continue today. It looks like another round of
showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon
and evening with the potential for marginal severe winds south of
the Highway 200. In addition to the wind flooding will also need
to be monitored in case of training storms.

Canadian wildfire smoke has moved south into the northern plains,
this will bring HAZE to the region and the potential for poor air
quality.

Zonal to southwest flow will hold through the mid-week with
showers and thunderstorms maintaining through Tuesday. Wednesday
may be briefly dry with a ridge passage before a trough again
drags us back into wetter weather late int he week and weekend.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Generally followed the NBM but models are moderate at best for
confidence on placement of showers & thunderstorms.

Small deviations were made in the near term PoPs ad Sky to
capture positioning on exiting showers and thunderstorms this
morning on radar.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0730Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: There is moderate to high confidence all
TAF sites will experience scattered storms during TAF cycle after
18Z this afternoon and into the evenign hours. There is a small
chance that some storms could become severe near KGDV in the
afternoon and evening hours.

WIND: SE at 5 to 15 kts this morning into the early afternoon.
Becoming variable in the late afternoon into the evening huotrs.
Gusty erratic winds and heavy rain is possible with these storms.

GAH



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow