383
FXUS65 KGGW 052033
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
233 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered disorganized rain showers today will quickly diminish
  this evening.

- Warmer, drier, and windy conditions are expected at times
  through this weekend, especially combining on Sunday.

- A weather pattern change next week will result in more favorable
  conditions for thunderstorms, beginning on Tuesday evening.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Similar to yesterday, the region today remains under the departing
influence of a low pressure system from central Canada, although
with less coverage of scattered small rain showers. A few outflow
boundaries are evident on radar imagery.

By Friday morning, more of an upper level ridge of high pressure
influence moves in here from the northern Rockies, but it will
simultaneously battle with a short-wave impulse from the Canadian
Rockies set to move in by early Saturday morning. Models are
starting to coalesce around a solution that would bring a bit of
organized rainfall near the Canadian border Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon.

A more robust ridge of warm high pressure will re-build into our
region beginning on Sunday. Some marginal fire weather conditions
will be in place, but seem to be focused more on Sunday, with
widespread gusty winds up to 35 mph. I will be reaching out to
organizers of local fishing tournaments to provide this
information to help with their planning.

Tuesday evening and beyond, region-wide conditions set up for
organized summertime thunderstorms, with higher humidity from the
south/southeast and troughing/SW flow moving in from the PAC NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high in the temperature forecast. Confidence is
average to below average regarding exact timing and precipitation
amounts of the rain showers, along with the need for any fire
weather headlines over the weekend.

Higher resolution guidance was blended in to handle the showers
today. Daytime winds were enhanced/edited by hand to emphasized
downdraft winds from rain showers.



&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 2035Z, Friday afternoon, June 5th

FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR

DISCUSSION: Coverage of isolated/scattered showers is more sparse
this afternoon and thus likely will stay out of even PROB30
groups. Otherwise, expect scattered mid-level clouds and quiet
flying conditions.

WINDS: Generally light and variable, if not calm. However, brief
erratic and gusty winds up to around 25 kts are possible near any
collapsing showers.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow