793
FXUS65 KGGW 182046
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
246 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Dry and breezy conditions present elevated fire weather
  concerns on Saturday.

* Late Sunday night into Tuesday is the next low pressure system
  which will bring some widespread rain to the region.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

As of this afternoon, the last of the lingering light shower
activity is finally moving southeast away from our area as the
slow-moving upper-level trough slides further east from our
region. Even now, the approaching warmer ridge of high pressure is
already building in through the northern Rockies region. Clearing
skies and warming temperatures are right around the corner - just
after one more night of a hard freeze tonight.

The ridge will allow for a quick and sudden rebound in
temperatures for this Easter weekend. Expect highs in the 60s and
lows in the 30s.

The next storm system is a wide open Pacific trough from the
Canadian Rockies, and looks to be fairly slow-moving as well.
Model precip data is beginning to fall a bit more in line. The
initial frontal passage later on Saturday seems to have scattered
rain showers associated with that cool front; but the main precip
event will be with the deeper trough energy that moves in later,
beginning on Sunday night. The influence of this low pressure will
last through Monday as well, and is expected to lead to widespread
rainfall, with some accumulations of more than 0.25 inch near and
west of MT-Highway 24.

A moderately to average unsettled weather pattern will prevail
over the region later through next week with off-and-on chances
for rain here and there. More details to follow in the coming
days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviated from the NBM for precip chances through Day 3, given the
recent NBM performance and better model consensus I could find.

Confidence is overall high on the temperature pattern for the next
several days, while average on measurable precipitation amounts
and timing early next week.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2045Z, Friday afternoon, April 18th

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR throughout.

DISCUSSION: Low pressure influence is leaving the region. Today`s
threat for isolated shower activity is done. High pressure is
approaching from the west. Expect clear and mostly sunny skies
tonight through Sunday. Next rainfall will be later Sunday through
Monday evening.

WIND: Light winds from the N/NW will quickly become near calm or
light and variable this evening through overnight tonight. Early
morning Saturday, winds will be from the SE around 10 kts. As the
day wears on, S winds will increase from the SW to around 15 to 20
mph.




&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow