693
FXUS65 KGGW 191935
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
135 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warming trend into Monday with high temperatures reaching 15-25
  degrees above average.

- Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next weather system will
  bring a chance for a wetting rain, mainly north of the Missouri
  River.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cutoff cold Low currently occupies the Desert Southwest, but
things in Montana stay dry and above average as weak ridging on
top of that cutoff system impacts the area through Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday the next cold front moves through
dropping temperatures back closer to seasonal averages. This one
will have more moisture than the last system, however storm total
QPF dropped a bit with this latest run with highest rainfall
amounts still favored in the northern part of the CWA. Probabilities
for precipitation and precipitation amounts range as follows:

(20% south 80% north) for 0.01"
(10 south 40% north) for 0.10"
(0% south 25% north) for 0.25"

Temperatures begin to slowly rise again back to around 10 degrees
above average later in the week but temperature recovery won`t be
nearly as good as the last time as the loss of solar radiation
from shorter days is finally starting to take effect.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in this weekend`s warm spell with little spread in
temperatures in the ensembles. Medium confidence in the precipitation
amounts with the next cold front. Medium confidence in long range
temperatures as ensemble spreads aren`t as large as before.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible over KGGW and KOLF from
06-15Z Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION: Dry the next couple days with occasional mid to high
level clouds moving through. Next shot at precipitation is Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

WIND: SW 10-15kts gusts 20kts

-Bernhart



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow