338
FXUS65 KGGW 041419
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
819 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...
815 am Update:
Dry cold front coming in with higher winds this morning than
expected, so increased winds for today. There have been gusts to
and over 30 mph but they look to last till about noon. Will
consider a Lake Wind Advisory till 2 pm. TFJ

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Today will be cooler and dry for most areas.

2) Chance for showers and thunderstorms will begin in the late
afternoon along the Yellowstone River and drift north across the
region tonight.

3) An upper trough moving in Saturday will bring showers and
thunderstorms with a slight risk of severe weather.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front will move through the area this morning which will
allow for a dry day in most areas with somewhat cooler
temperatures.

The front will be over southern Montana this afternoon when the
airmass will become unstable which will allow for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the Yellowstone Valley. SW flow
aloft ahead of the upper trough tonight will allow some of those
showers and thunderstorms to drift north into NE Montana.

The upper trough will move across western and central Montana on
Saturday and eastern Montana Saturday night. A surface low will
develop along the MT/WY border which will combine with an unstable
atmosphere and strong wind shear for showers and thunderstorms at
times with some storms becoming severe. SPC currently has a slight
risk for severe weather over all of eastern Montana.

While the trough moves to the east on Sunday, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will linger mainly along the Canadian and North
Dakota borders.

Warmer temperatures return next week and highs will be in the 90s
in most areas starting on Tuesday and continuing through at least
Thursday with mainly dry weather.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is low on any thunderstorm chances today and confidence
increases to medium tonight and high on Saturday especially in the
afternoon and evening with low confidence on timing and specific
storms.

NBM was largely used for the forecast.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 1415Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: There will be varying levels of mid and high clouds
over NE Montana today and tonight. There will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms at times stating after 21z this
afternoon at KSDY and KGDV and late tonight at KOLF and KGGW.

WIND: North 10 to 20 knots, gust to 30 kts this morning becoming a
bit lighter at NE this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow